Pot odds say call...I fold it

[minwoo]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t400 (4 handed) converter

Hero (t2010)
UTG (t5390)
Button (t1640)
SB (t960)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
Folds to SB who pushes

I know I'm getting the odds to call but if I call and lose (which I most likely will with a piece of crap hand like 5J), I 'm left w/ a stack of ~1000...which means my FE will be gone. However, if I fold, I still have a stack of ~1600...good FE for when I push.

Go with pot odds and call or preserve FE for when I'm the one pushing? What's the correct move?

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t400 (4 handed) converter

Hero (t2010)
UTG (t5390)
Button (t1640)
SB (t960)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
Folds to SB who pushes

I know I'm getting the odds to call but if I call and lose (which I most likely will with a piece of crap hand like 5J), I 'm left w/ a stack of ~1000...which means my FE will be gone. However, if I fold, I still have a stack of ~1600...good FE for when I push.

Go with pot odds and call or preserve FE for when I'm the one pushing? What's the correct move?

[/ QUOTE ]

One key to this problem is that you have to go through BS everytime. How do you see his calling standards? Because if you think he might have a tightish calling range when he i getting 1.8-1 or whatever, I'd wait and push the next hand if folded to me. Good news is also that UTG next hand might elect to push and goto war given he is losing 600 of 1600 over 2 hands. I could fold this. Its tough but you have to put SB literally on any 2 everytime and even then it sucks (which is probably right on here.)

I think im going to call this because if you fold the stacks are now:

5390
1640
1610 (you)
1360 (him)

If you call and lose the stacks are:

5390
1920 (him)
1640
1050 (you)

Even when you fold SB is back in the hunt, the only difference is that he has you covered if you lose.

I havent even touched on what the stacks would be if you win. I call the bet, and hope im not dominated.

[11t]

When the blinds get this high you must gamble. Folding jack high here versus villain's likely range (whatever he is dealt) is awful.

Folding here makes you bad at poker.

[11t]

If villain's range is any 2 it is +2.4% EV. You still fold?

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
If villain's range is any 2 it is +2.4% EV. You still fold?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think thats the point of this hand and why I replied.

Often on the bubble we are "put" to a decision that we know intuitively is mathmatically correct, but because we are the passive player it does not sit right with us.

IOW, I know pushing any 2 in the SB is correct in certain cases (this one for example) and I don't mind doing it because I am the active player. If I bust out, its ok, because I made the right move and I went out swinging aggressively instead of cowering passively.

In this hand, the odds are there and a call looks good and if we put SB on any two, as we should be close to doing, then as you say, its a +2.4%EV. However, the pychological element of this hand is big. HERO: "I played a great SNG and now I basically am being told I have to call with J5o" "If I lose, my chances are rather meager".

I would and normally do call here and what my way of defining the SNG is: "I should not even be in a position where calling bc of pot odds is going to cripple me. Why didnt I steal more sooner" and will look back to see where I could have provided more distance between myself and the shorter stacks.

I still think more setup is necessary to decide whether this is a clear call or fold.

pooh

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]

Folding here makes you bad at poker.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you think SB "knows the deal" then yes, folding is bad. To say "folding here makes you bad at poker" w/o knowing more about this table makes YOU bad at poker. I dont see how this fold can always be wrong, as I have folded in this situation before...not saying that I am not bad, but to say this call is mandatory is a bit too much.

[11t]

Yes, I agree that Hero should have tried to avoid putting himself in this position. It is a much easier call with more chips.

However, while a SNG (or a set of 1000 sng's) and poker in general is about a long series of decision that add up to an eventuality it is moreso about each individual decision you are making. Yes, it would have been nice if he had more chips to make this an easier call but it is still a call unless villain is the worse player in history.

I call here 100% of the time even if I know villain is awful and is waiting for some random ace or king high to push. Then again I suck.

[11t]

I would safe to say it is far more probable than not that villain, whether he knows "the deal" or not is pushing an extremely wide range here.

I would like to say one thing that the fact that Hero has jack high is one of the reasons I think this is a clearer call and it becomes clearer. I would call even faster with queen high. I mean I could see villain like 72 or some completely awful hand but jack high is ahead of ten high [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

even if he does hold Ax, Kx, Qx, or hell even AQ-AK; hero is still only a 60/40 dog, an the pot is laying him 2.4:1 odds. I take it. The only problems are with 55+, and better 5s and Js.