What do you think of my play

[Buzz]

Gooper - Your play on all betting rounds here is fine.

You might have a question about your play on the third betting round where you have many outs, but they're mostly for half of the pot. I count them all together as about 8 scoop equivalent outs, accordingly figure your hand odds as 29 to 8 or roughly 3.6 to one against you, and, including an implied contribution from an opponent when you make your hand on the river, figure you need at least three opponents to jamb on the turn. Since you have four opponents, the extra opponent is pure gravy. You should, and do, jamb on the third betting round. I like it.

No point in second guessing your play on the other betting rounds. Your play seems fine here.

Just my opinion.

Buzz

[Buzz]

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Unless I really hose my EV calc, it looks like a good bet,

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Beavis - You didn’t hose your EV calc. You did a good job. Your 1.5 was a very good estimation of the effect of only winning half the pot. You (properly) dropped the flush cards that also paired the board from your “clean” outs. Good job!

It looks like a good bet to me too.

I did the calculation slightly differently. I included implied pot values for the fourth betting round. I also dropped the two “dirty” flush outs (the cards that made the flush but paired the board) from all consideration and used 42 as my denominator, rather than 44.

I ended up with a slightly different value than yours for E.V. (0.606). But it’s in the same ball park as your estimation. In terms of using the odds or E.V. to estimate your chances of success, I think pretty close is good enough. At some point it becomes a matter of reading your opponents anyway, and recognizing if they’re representing far fetched possibilities with their bets or not. The thing you don’t want to be doing, in my humble opinion, is grossly mis-estimating the odds or E.V. so that you’re bucking the odds.

just my opinion,

Buzz

[Cooker]

The action in the original post is incomplete on the turn. Someone folds and it is not listed on the turn action. This can make a significant difference in the best action on the turn. If the person has already folded before you act, you are just increasing your variance by puttin in EV neutral raises. If you cause him to fold, you have gone from making money on the calling 1 bet to simply breaking even on 4 bets which doesn't sound so great to me, and also increases your variance.

Although, this raise would be quite nice if they could open up 2s and 3s for a low win. But this is doubtful at the low limits in my experience.

[Jim Morgan]

The turn raise is a good one. Your pot odds make raising marginally profitable. Lets assume that there is a 50-50 chance that somone else has a nut low draw. That assumption gives you 6 outs for nut low. (explanation --- 16 outs for half a pot is like 8 outs for a whole pot 16 outs for a quarter is like 4 outs for a whole. Averaging these yields 6 outs.) You also have 3 outs for high with no low at all. (high clubs). You have 5 low clubs that will also give you half a pot. for another 2.5 outs. There is also some value in catching the 9c. Let's call it 0.5 outs. All this counting of outs shows that you have 12 outs. They will show up as a mix of scoops and splits, but overall, you expect to win 12 pots for every 42 pots. (based on 42 unknown cards) With 3 opponents calling, you GAIN EQUITY on every bet since there are fewer than 48 unknown cards. You can see 8 and you are safe in assuming that the better has 2 straight cards, for a total of 42 'unknonw' cards.

This is not the end of the story. The fear that the better will re-raise and knock out opponents is hardly something to fear. You WANT them out or donating more. Maybe tens and nines will fold. (promoting the 9c to an out) Maybe a bad low draw will fold and now all the 2's and 3's will be live outs for low. Getting even 3 more outs for low here is a lot more important than the fraction of a bet you might lose if the reraise causes one of the limpers to fold.

Lets look at some numbers. With 12 outs and 2 opponents, the 2 extra big bets (due to the reraise) each means you win 48 big bets when you hit your 12 outs and lose 60 big bets when you miss. So, over 42 hands you lose 12 big bets when things go very wrong, but if both fish call, you pick up 72 big bets instead of 48. If losing a fish were a 50-50 propostion, then raising would be a break-even move. However, the stray chances of knocking out the hand that would ultimately suck out on you easily balances this.

By the way, I also like your other plays. Raising on the flop here seems like such a good idea, but it just doesn't seem to work. The fish do protect each other a bit, and in this case, they (for the moment) will manage to take the high by making bad calls when you raise. Nor can you hope to drive out enough of them to make a turn of a 2 or 3 work out for you. For now letting them call and waiting seems far superior.

[PokerProdigy]

I am very new to Omaha/8 so take my advice with a grain of salt because I may be totally wrong. But anyway, I am wondering whether or not it was correct to cap the turn? I mean, I understand that you have some big draws but I just wonder if you had enough pot equity edge to push your hand this hard.

If anyone agrees or disagrees with me here, be sure to let me know, because it could sure help my game. And please, offer some explanation and math to justify your answer because decisions like these are very important, in terms of +/- EV.

[JoshuaMayes]

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I am very new to Omaha/8 so take my advice with a grain of salt because I may be totally wrong. But anyway, I am wondering whether or not it was correct to cap the turn? I mean, I understand that you have some big draws but I just wonder if you had enough pot equity edge to push your hand this hard.

If anyone agrees or disagrees with me here, be sure to let me know, because it could sure help my game. And please, offer some explanation and math to justify your answer because decisions like these are very important, in terms of +/- EV.

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You might have a question about your play on the third betting round where you have many outs, but they're mostly for half of the pot. I count them all together as about 8 scoop equivalent outs, accordingly figure your hand odds as 29 to 8 or roughly 3.6 to one against you, and, including an implied contribution from an opponent when you make your hand on the river, figure you need at least three opponents to jamb on the turn. Since you have four opponents, the extra opponent is pure gravy. You should, and do, jamb on the third betting round. I like it.


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