Is poker just not for me?

[wyrd]

I've been playing limit .20/.50 on Ultimate Bet and Carribean Poker (which no longer counts low limit rakes towards your bonus - major suck). I can't count the ways I've lost money the last two days;

- I flop an Ace, but the board is suited and someone else flopped a flush.
- I flop a straight, someone else hits a miracle river for a full house (paired 10s on the turn, paired Kings on the river, he had a King).
- I flop a set, someone else hits the turn for a better set.
- I flop two pair, and get outdrawn by someone hitting a gut shot straight draw.
- I flop a pair with a flush draw. I still lose to a higher pair and I never hit my flush.
- AA, KK, QQ, JJ lose 90% of the time. I raise preflop, keep betting and raising down to the river. Do they hold up? Of course not.

It almost seems like the game is a crap-shoot. Usually 4-8 people per flop, with about 3 calling with anything all the way down to the river. I kid you not, someone called a raise and continued calling down to the river with 72o only to hit a straight and win. I've seen two 93o split a pot which was raised preflop.

I try so hard to play the way SSH says to play. Check-raise here for value, Raise here to try and get drawing hands out of the pot, raise here for value, so on and so on. Don't fold in an insanely large pot, even if drawing slim. Call when pot odds permit it on a draw, or raise (flush draw w/ pair) for value.

I have reexamined my playing, I have reread some parts of SSH and Theory of Poker, I have asked questions here on the forums about certain situations. While I'm not perfect, and I definitely make mistakes at times (which I carefully examine so I can learn from them), overall I would have to say I'm playing well. But of course, I'm not winning. So that logic has to be flawed. If I'm losing, I obviously can't be playing well.

So this leaves me frustrated to no end. Is there a luck factor in poker that I just don't have? I try to play based on skill and odds, but I have to say so far it hasn't been going so well.

I'm not sure what else to say except... I'm looking for guidance.

[Pov]

[ QUOTE ]
- AA, KK, QQ, JJ lose 90% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

Against 6 random hands played to the river, AA does in fact wins less than half the time. The beauty is you win 43% of the time while only putting in 14% of the money.

KK is around 37%, QQ is around 32% and JJ is around 28%. So all 4 show a big profit pre-flop against a large field of random callers.

But of course not all the money goes in pre-flop. You need to evaluate the best action on each street. 6 people call and the flop has an Ace in it? Your KK is dead - drop it. Big pairs and big cards make their money early in a hand, but if you pay off on the big streets (turn and river) when your hand has turned sour you could just be giving it all back. That's why it's so important to do things to protect your hand.

Give this recent article in the 2+2 Magazine a read. This exact concept comes up in my low limit play all the time. Note that in the example the turn and river turn out well for the writer, but he notes which cards kill his hand on the turn. If those hit and he saw action behind him he would switch modes totally and only continue if the odds for him to draw to his boat were there.

On The Edge - Part V

It is frequently said you can break even playing perfectly preflop. To win money you have to play from the flop onwards.

[Student]

It really does seem, thru these beginner's eyes, as though you're playing very skillful poker!

But poker is a game of skill AND luck. Bad luck easily trumps good skill, as both you and every TV expert player will attest. They've experienced bad luck that would make yours look like a cakewalk! If you continue placing emphasis on playing hands correctly, instead of looking at seeming RESULTS, in time your luck will change and hardening in your game will accrue to your extreme advantage.

You're doing one thing really right. When facing bad luck one should emphasize reading books, articles in poker magazines and 2+2 posts, rather than playing. Look, this is a rare opportunity to grow significantly. Don't blow it. Learn from all this bad luck. Study your game (as you're doing), and examine all sorts of possibilities that come from an out-of-the-ordinary kind of thinking.

You're doing the right thing coming to 2+2! There are some true experts who will unselfishly share with you here. Ask...

Dave

[Student]

Very insightful! I notice your post beat mine by a minute. Great minds think alike, eh?

Dave

[Pov]

[ QUOTE ]
I notice your post beat mine by a minute.

[/ QUOTE ]

What really sucks is when you reply to something, but it takes you so long to type it that two other people have already said the same thing by the time you actually post. :P I'm a little too wordy I guess. Okay, a lot.

I think sometimes my careful thought goes to waste because my explanation is so long no one reads it. Fortunately I do this just as much to force myself to take a stance and form a clear thought as I do to actually help people so at least I get something selfish out of it.

[Sakuraba]

[ QUOTE ]
- AA, KK, QQ, JJ lose 90% of the time. I raise preflop, keep betting and raising down to the river. Do they hold up? Of course not.

[/ QUOTE ]

Get PokerTracker. Get 10000+ hands in it. The next time you feel this way, go look at your win % for these hands. You will be shocked by how wrong your numbers are.

BTW, some of these are really routine. (listed below) These probably happen to me almost every day I play yet I manage to win. The others are bad beats, but that is part of the game too.

- I flop an Ace, but the board is suited and someone else flopped a flush.
- I flop two pair, and get outdrawn by someone hitting a gut shot straight draw.
- I flop a pair with a flush draw. I still lose to a higher pair and I never hit my flush.

[wyrd]

Fascinating article. Thanks for that.

[Student]

As I'm sure you've noticed, I'm the 2+2 reigning presense concerning long-windedness! At least your posts are based on expertise, whereas mine are based on ignorance. Turns out there's a lot more to say in ignorance, than in expertise, huh?

Dave

[SheridanCat]

[ QUOTE ]

What really sucks is when you reply to something, but it takes you so long to type it that two other people have already said the same thing by the time you actually post.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this all the time. But then I just go, "screw it, they'll just have to read it again." [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Regards,

T

[donkeyradish]

If you only play good hands and everyone else plays random hands, it stands to reason you have an edge on them.

But its only an edge, not total domination. Short term results mean little.