Q9 hand...good fold or weak play?

[Obliky]

First some background,

MP1 is fishy 38/2/0.8 and his bets seem to mean the obvious.

Button is 34/5/1.8 and seems to be generally loose but not overly aggressive from what ive seen.

No point posting my stats because these guys arent paying attention anyway..but ive been playing TA.

Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls, CO calls, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, Hero calls, CO calls.

Flop: (12.50 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
UTG+2 checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, CO folds, <font color="#CC3333">Button 3-bets</font>, UTG+2 folds, MP1 calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (10.75 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
MP1 checks, Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets</font>, MP1 calls, Hero folds.

Thoughts?

[zuluking]

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Thoughts?

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Fold pre-flop.

[TwoShedsJackson]

Q9s is worth the odd limp from MP3 if the table is passive preflop.

But this turn fold is not good - you're getting 12.75 to 1, you could have a better Queen than one of these guys, and you have five outs to a probable winning hand. I call and check call the river too.

[Obliky]

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Thoughts?

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Fold pre-flop.

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Im following the guidelines from SSH which advocates playing Q9s from mid position...this game is pretty passive too.

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But this turn fold is not good - you're getting 12.75 to 1, you could have a better Queen than one of these guys, and you have five outs to a probable winning hand. I call and check call the river too.


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I only just realised how many bets were in on the turn...doh. What a pointless post this has been...

Never fold that! I would assume a big pocket pair from the button, or a set, something he's trying to protect from the flush draw, but remember what SSH says: DON'T LET GO OF DECENT HANDS IN A BIG POT. Sure, you're probably behind at this point, but you have enough outs in that pot to outdraw. Giving up the 12 or 13-bet pot just for one or two won't be profitable.

I think the MP limp with Q9s is fine with two or three limpers in front. It's not a major EV leak if you can handle yourself postflop.

[istewart]

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Thoughts?

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Fold pre-flop.

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No way man. This hand is too good for this situation.

[istewart]

I think you can call the turn but I have not run any numbers yet. Preflop he doesn't raise much (although if your AF on him is over a significant number of hands than he is indeed fairly aggressive).

Once he raises preflop I'd give him a range of AA-TT, AKo/AKs, AQo/AQs, and maybe AJs/AJo if he likes raising a bit more in late position.

Once he reraises the flop I think his range his AA-QQ, TT, AQ, or AsKs-AsJs.

But on the turn he continues to bet, so we have to negate the fact that he has just a draw on the turn a bit, although 1) it is a monster draw and 2) there are a helluva lot of players who will not slow down with straight/flush combo draws.

So, for the turn.

AA - 6 (possibly 5 outs)
KK - 6 (possibly 5 outs)
QQ - 1 (0 outs)
TT - 3 (0 outs)

AsKs-AsJs - ~1 combined (around 30 outs)

(30 + 30 + 0 + 0 + 30) / 3 + 1 + 6 + 6 + 1 =

90/17 = ~5.3 outs

Obviously though MP1 often has a draw as well, further tainting your queens and nines. But getting 12.5:1 you only need about ~3.5 outs to continue so I think you should.

Call here and fold the river unimproved. If a spade hits and anyone is still betting it's an easy fold, and I assume that button will not bet an UI ace-high draw into two players on the river, so you don't need to worry about that.

[lufbradolly]

Preflop's fine.

Fold the flop.

[Fantam]

I think that you were probably behind on the turn, but button may have a Q with a weaker kicker than yours.

Getting almost 12:1, I would call the turn bet. You have the odds to improve to a better hand.

[2+2 wannabe]

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Preflop's fine.

Fold the flop.

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