What if you knew everyone's hole cards?

J.Brown · #1 10-06-2005, 05:52 PM

unless i am missing something, wouldn't people who made really bad plays knock you out more often than we would like to admit????

can you imagine if you had this power and 10 tournaments in a row you got all your money in with the best of it (and i mean really knowing just how good you were getting it in)and getting sucked out on in every possible fashion?? What about when people bluff of there money to you and you HAVE to call and then it goes runner runner and your out??

now that would be even worse than most of the beats that you can take online, lol. just my thoughts. cheers J.

SossMan · #2 10-06-2005, 06:05 PM

[ QUOTE ]
What about when people bluff of there money to you and you HAVE to call and then it goes runner runner and your out??

[/ QUOTE ]

If you are calling all in bets on the flop for all your chips with anything less than 99% early in the tournament, then you are not playing optimally.

The key to this excersize is that you win so many chips uncontested that it would take some wacky string of super duper bad beats late in the tourney for you to not win. Remember, they don't know that you know.

ggbman · #3 10-06-2005, 06:07 PM

I am guess it should improve your chances by a factor of MUCH more than 3-5x. Take into account now that you can play every pot correctly, exercise better pot control, induce bluffs when your opponents miss their draws, never get bluffed, just shove preflop with AA because some has KK... it goes on and on. Any guess to the actual number on my part would be purely speculative.

Martin Aigner · #4 10-07-2005, 03:08 PM

[ QUOTE ]
just shove preflop with AA because some has KK

[/ QUOTE ]

Now that would be a horrible strategy

MicroBob · #5 10-06-2005, 06:27 PM

[ QUOTE ]

unless i am missing something..............

if you had this power and 10 tournaments in a row you got all your money in with the best of it

[/ QUOTE ]

As sossman pointed out.
You are indeed missing something.

There is NO WAY you would want to get your money in merely with 'the best of it'.
If any same-size stack as you (or anything close to your stack really) goes all-in with 72o you should fold AA.

That's how big your advantage is post-flop.

On the turn and the river you just bet small when you have good hands....or bet when you think the opponent has such crappy cards that they have to fold like you have 44 and your opponent has 55 on a board of AKQ (although even betting in this spot is a little risky and probably unnecessary).

I simply don't understand the logic behind so many who are talking about pre-flop all-in's and 55/45 advantage and getting it in with the 'best of it' because you SO OBVIOUSLY would NEVER want to do this.

Just value-bet the crap out of every hand that is winning.
And size those bets in such a manner that you can get a call.

To Sossman - I'm still not sure about 90% or more at the WSOP ME.
Lets just round up and call it a 6,000 player field that happens to include all the world's best players.

I have a feeling that Greenstein or Sklansky or Reese or Ivey might eventually be able to figure out that something was up.

They might not know specifically that you are ALWAYS seeing their cards...but they will eventually observe that you are somehow taking every pot where you stay in (although you could counter this by actually intentionally showing-down a losing hand every once in awhile I suppose).

If a Chan or Greenstein or Sklansky is at your table then they are going to come up with some sort of appropriate 'all-in or nothing' strategy to try to counter your advantage.

Even without someone coming up with a maniac strategy to counter your x-ray vision....it's 6,000 freaking players.
And we're talking about winning the whole freaking thing.
I'm saying 50%-ish and you're saying 90%-ish (which may be closer to correct, not sure).

SossMan · #6 10-06-2005, 10:06 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I have a feeling that Greenstein or Sklansky or Reese or Ivey might eventually be able to figure out that something was up.

They might not know specifically that you are ALWAYS seeing their cards...but they will eventually observe that you are somehow taking every pot where you stay in (although you could counter this by actually intentionally showing-down a losing hand every once in awhile I suppose).

If a Chan or Greenstein or Sklansky is at your table then they are going to come up with some sort of appropriate 'all-in or nothing' strategy to try to counter your advantage.

Even without someone coming up with a maniac strategy to counter your x-ray vision....it's 6,000 freaking players.
And we're talking about winning the whole freaking thing.
I'm saying 50%-ish and you're saying 90%-ish (which may be closer to correct, not sure).

[/ QUOTE ]

by the time they figured out something was up, it would be too late. After day 1, nobody is going to have enough chips to ever bust you. You will end day 1 with probably over 200k in chips, maybe more. You will lead wire to wire. You will go to the final table with probably over 90% of the chips. Imagine your advantage on the bubble. On the final table bubble. Even if they had some sort of all in or fold strategy against me, I would have two advantages...
I would have a huge stack and would be able to eventually bust them w/ a 75%+ favorite preflop
and
I don't have to play against them. I could avoid them until I had a huge advantage and pick on everyone else.

Think about it. You would never make a mistake. You could blow people off medium sized pots at will. You would never make a river error. You could resteal everytime anyone stole. You could call every raise when someone has AK or AQ and you had two garbage cards and play a flop...a turn...a river perfectly. You would be able to execute perfect squeeze plays. You would accumulate so many chips with so little (virtualy no) risk that you would be impossible to stop. It would take a monster run of terrible beats/cards at the final table for you not to win. That will happen maybe once in twenty or thirty trials. No more.

MicroBob · #7 10-06-2005, 10:28 PM

Yeah...I suspect you might be correct.

I am naturally thinking of the fact that it's 6k freaking players over 5 days (or whatever it is) and we are talking about somehow not winning THE WHOLE THING only 10% of the time.

You might be correct that by the time any expert figured out that something was going on that my advantage would be too insurmountable.

Additionally, since I would likely have SOOOO many freaking chips they would probably just try to steer clear of me and see if they can get into pots against the other players.

Playing for 2nd place would have to be better EV for them than taking maniacal shots to slow me down.

I'll agree with your 90% figure.

Man...this would be FUN!!!
I want to do this. Somebody hurry-up and make some X-Ray glasses for me.

housenuts · #8 10-07-2005, 01:22 PM

[ QUOTE ]

If any same-size stack as you (or anything close to your stack really) goes all-in with 72o you should fold AA.

[/ QUOTE ]

what if you are at the TV table? that would raise some suspicious questions

PITTM · #9 10-07-2005, 07:56 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

If any same-size stack as you (or anything close to your stack really) goes all-in with 72o you should fold AA.

[/ QUOTE ]

what if you are at the TV table? that would raise some suspicious questions

[/ QUOTE ]

they wouldnt know your cards because you would never look :P

rj

Boris · #10 10-07-2005, 01:10 PM

I think if you just avoid putting all your chips at risk early. Then it won't take more than 3 rounds before you have at least a 3:1 chip advantage over anyone at your table. No that you have big chips you can "risk" putting your money in as a 4:1 favorite. Once you get to the final table with a big stack of chips you would be invincible.