At what point...

[SteveL91]

I'm sure this is beating a dead horse, but I'm curious: At what point (be it number of hands player, hours player, whatever) did you know you were a winning player?

I admit, this is definitely a mix of a rant/whine post. I'm going through yet another downswing, and I'm trying to figure out if it's even worth playing through. It seems everytime I start to be on the path of building a bankroll, I hit yet another downswing where I don't hit anything and just get outdrawn. Couple this with seemingly brief upswings, and it adds up to a lot of frustration.

I have ~30,000 hands in Poker Tracker and while I'm winning, it's so marginal that I don't want to put much faith in it. My winrate is a bit over 1BB/100 over a mix of .25/.50; .50/1.00; and 1/2 at Poker Stars. I've won at all of them, and I suspect the winrates are skewed because I dropped down levels after downswings. I've also played out of my bankroll, which further alters the winrate because I could never play through the downswings at 1/2 or .50/1.

I could post the stats, but I don't know that they'd really show anything. I'll definitely post them if it would help. I know I need to start posting hand histories, but I guess I just never get around to it and I don't want to re-hash a situation that has undoubedly come up plenty of times.

I've read a few books, but I really only skimmed through WLLH because I was naturally playing near that level. I've read SSH and I'm planning on re-reading it a few times.

I know I need to start really working on my game, and I guess it's time I started to put the effort in. For what it's worth, I was a "winning player" both before and after reading SSH (roughly 18k hands before reading; the rest post-SSH), but I don't want to read too much into that, because I doubt it really means anything.

If anyone can offer input, or just saying to suck it up and play, I'd appreciate it. More than anything, I suspect I just needed to vent my frustration.

Thanks,
Steve

[DavidC]

I like 10k hands.

It's a nice round number, a power of ten, which happens to be the same number as the amount of fingers we would normally have.

20k seems a little more reliable though. (oddly enough, it's not twice as reliable, it's less than twice as reliable, but it's certainly more reliable).

30,000 hands... that's a lot. It COULD be a downswing, but you probably want to post hand histories, as you said.

I was very very LAG on the turn for my first 10k hands. I was winning maybe 1.25-1.5 bb/100. I tightened that up a bit and I am now 2.25-2.5. (PT tells me 3.5 over my last 10k hands, but I don't trust that number until it gets to 20k or 30k...).

[PokerCat69]

1BB/100 is nothing when your winning .50 cents, but 1BB/100 on a 15/30 game is excellent money. What you need to do is play solid poker within your bankroll and every week save some money you can devote to your poker bankroll. Be it $50 or whatever. Your bankroll grows that 1BB/100 + put in $50 every week and move up in limits when you can. Patience is the key.
I'm playing .25/.50 and it sucks, even with 4 tables and a 1.2BB/100 (so far) the money isn't there. I'm playing 4 hours today and up $13. [censored] joke, but when the money builds up you can move up limits. Poker is all about patience.

[detruncate]

It's certainly possible to be running less than your longterm expected winrate after 30,000 hands. A few good sessions can still have a remarkable effect on things.

That said, there's no reason to think that your play can't get better, so do the things you need to do in order to improve.

Self-evaluate. What are your strengths and weaknesses?

Join the conversation. Read/respond to as many threads as you have time/energy for, whether or not you think you have the "right answer".

Post problem hands. Often just the act of preparing a hand for posting is enough to help you think through things, but if you're still mystified, slap it up. The recent "improve the forum" stuff isn't about stopping people from posting, it's about improving the level of dialogue and trying to cut down on thoughtless posting.

Pick a limit you're properly rolled for and plan to dig in and play for a while. Ignore the onward and upward. Re-evaluate when you're feeling better about things. Putting yourself in postion to supplement your earnings with bonuses might also help you ride things out -- check out www.bonuswhores.com, and don't forget to research rakeback deals if you're moving to party skins.

Positive numbers are good. It means you're getting paid to learn. Don't get discouraged -- there's no time limit or "must achieve" winrate. As long as you're enjoying yourself and feel like your game is improving, you're doing just fine.

Welcome to the forum. Congratulations on your success thus far (being positive after 30,000 hands is most definitely success -- poker is hard), and best of luck going forward.

[SteveL91]

Thanks for all the input, guys. I haven't had time to play much today, but it seems I might be coming out of my downswing. We'll see.

David,

Hopefully, I'll follow a similiar path. I've only been playing a few months, so I most definitely have a long way to go. I've always been fairly tight PF; I never really went through a "loose" phase or anything. I'm curious how that'll affect my development.

PokerCat,

That's not a bad idea, and something I'll definitely consider. I was hoping to avoid putting more of my own money in, but it's a possibility.

detruncate,

I know my game can get much better. I'm just competitive, and I hate failure. Although I'm up after 30k hands, the perfectionist in me is saying that 1BB/100 isn't good enough. I have unrealistic expectations for success, especially for only playing a few months.

I'll definitely think about posting some hands; I just need to start making notes so I'll remember to... lol. I do try and offer up my thoughts when I have something to say that hasn't been said.

I won't bore anyone with detailed strengths and weaknesses, but my number one weakness, and the thing I'm trying to work on the most is I'm trying to think more while playing instead of purely reacting on instinct. I need to develop the ability to think like a poker player while playing. I'm very analytical by nature, so I think I'll get there eventually.

Thanks again,
Steve