When to go against your plan?

Exitonly · #1 09-28-2005, 12:32 AM

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t400 (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

UTG+1 (t23425)
MP1 (t17738)
MP2 (t29446)
MP3 (t20018)
CO (t18550)
Button (t21905)
Hero (t11135)
BB (t17210)
UTG (t26805)

Preflop: Hero is SB with J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to t2000, 5 folds, Hero calls t1800, 1 fold.

Flop: (t4000) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 bets t1200, Hero calls t1200.

Turn: (t6400) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 bets t1600, Hero raises to t7910, UTG+1 calls t6310.

River: (t22220) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)

Final Pot: t22220

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Not specifically looking for comments on this hand, i botched it and am aware.

But this made me think.. when he raised PF i decided that i was going to cheeck raise all-in on any non-AK flop.

Then when the A came on the flop i was ready to give it up... then he made a bet 1/2 the size of his preflop raise...

What the hell is that? Obvious trap? Middle pair? I dont know, it seemed like a trap.. and i bit hard.

But it made me think, what has to happen fr you to stop folowing your plan of action?

#2 09-28-2005, 12:39 AM

I love to bet or raise ace rag flops. An underbet like that is very frequently a middle pair or something like TT-KK, and they will almost always fold to even a small raise (like raise to 3600 there)
if they call or reraise you're done, but it's very profitable imo.

As for the question, depends entirely on the circumstances, but an underbet on an a high flop will often do it

#3 09-28-2005, 01:08 AM

[ QUOTE ]

But it made me think, what has to happen fr you to stop folowing your plan of action?

[/ QUOTE ]

Anything that makes me think there's better EV elsewhere. I'm sure you know this already, but consistency theories = -EV. Decide what to do preflop based on your cards, your opponents, your opponents' actions your position, and what you expect to do on various flops (I'm sure there are plenty others). Then, on the flop, completely reevaluate with the same factors.

I think this particular hand is a pretty tough one. I'd really like to discuss your play preflop. What range do you think is reasonable for this villain? What range does he call your push with?

Exitonly · #4 09-28-2005, 01:35 AM

Well on this specific hand like i said i think i botched it.

I was fairly sure i was getting called if i pushed.. and i'm not sure why i didn't want that especially since i don't think any yhand that beats me raises 5x BB at this stage in the tournament. But i figured i'd have 25BB left if an A or K came, and if it didn't the i'd have 40+BB.

On second thought.. i may have taken the better line. +10BB 60% -5BB 40%.. instead of +30BB 55% -30BB 45%. ..

just calling would be +4 BB, while All in PF would be +3bb.
And, just calling would have much lower variance.

Though, that's assuming A) i have no FE preflop. b) He always has AK, like if the board came Q86 and i check raise all in.. and he has AQ well that sucks. ..

so i'd guess that since assumption B isn't very good.. the palys are pretty similar EV wise, and since just calling has a lower variance.. it might be better.

Exitonly · #5 09-28-2005, 02:38 AM

[ QUOTE ]
What range do you think is reasonable for this villain? What range does he call your push with?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd put his range for 5xBB at..

AQo+, 66-JJ.

Yea that's a really tight range, so i'd say theres only like a 75% chance he's in there.. and 25% w/ some other hand i'm no expecting.
--

range he'd call the push w/ is pretty much the same thing as above.. i don't see him going away at all.

He called a raise of my from EP w/ 57d earlier. (i semi-payed him off, so he played it kind of good, but i think it was still a losing play)

so that said, i think the line i took was good (if i had stuck to it, and folded to the flop.

#6 09-28-2005, 04:42 AM

I really think you should fold to his bet on the flop here, as aggravatingly weak as it feels to do so. However, if you just can't stand to do that and think he might be full of it, make it 3000 to go. If he calls/bets the turn, fold. If he reraises, easy fold. If he checks behind on the turn, check/call a reasonable river bet. The only way I even sort of understand your line is if you think you can get villain to lay down something like AJ. Without a strong read, this is an easy way to go broke. By raising the flop you can diminish the chance of folding the best hand, buy some information, and maybe take it down on the spot. Plus you can get to showdown against many holdings cheaply, and even stick around to catch a possible two-outer. These all might be arguments for just leading for 1/2 - 2/3 pot even with the ace and taking it from there.... Thoughts?

Exitonly · #7 09-28-2005, 04:50 AM

Did you read my post? i posted the hand just to get the later idea..

I shouldn't have posted my post flop play, i said it was bad and i didnt need help to realize that... the question was, what would make you change the plan of action you designed preflop

#8 09-28-2005, 04:58 AM

Isn't your plan to check/fold any flop with an A or K? Doesn't discussing this plan, and factors leading one to deviate from it, contribute to the general consideration of when a plan should be scrapped (more generally, when does strategy devolve into the demands of tactics)? Moreover, the quality of the plan itself seems relevant here. Better plans would apply to more situations and would need to be scrapped less often, right? I'm not convinced that in a HU pot not leading into the raiser with very possibly the best hand is a +EV plan. If you want to keep the level of analysis on a much more abstract level than this, I'm sorry -- misunderstanding.