Cold calling a turn raise with straight-flush draw on a paired board ?

#1 12-13-2005, 04:40 PM

BB is 20.2/7.6/1.28 after 262 hands, I have no stats on MP2.

PokerStars 1/2 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
2 folds, Hero calls, 1 fold, MP2 calls, 1 fold, CO calls, 1 fold, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (5 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero checks, MP2 bets, CO folds, SB folds, BB calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (4 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, Hero checks, MP2 bets, BB raises, Hero calls, MP2 calls.

River: (10 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB bets, Hero calls, MP2 folds.

Final Pot: 12 BB

I went for the overcall on river thus not risking being reraised by a full house.
Comments on all streets are welcome.
Thank you.

NobodysFreak · #2 12-13-2005, 04:46 PM

fold pre-flop.

Your turn call is rough only getting 7:2, but I think we can make it up when we hit on the river provided we:

Raise the river.

imported_The Vibesman · #3 12-13-2005, 04:47 PM

The full house is pretty unlikely; you're not usually going to see KK, QQ or even 99 w/o a preflop raise, and Q4, K4 and 94 are just unlikely period. Possible, sure, esp in an unraised pot, but there hasn't been enough action to give credit for that on the river.

On the flop I'm often leading out, acting this late in position in an unraised pot w/ a flush draw. Check-calling is fine, had either CO or SB called MP2's bet you'd want to raise.

I think you have to call the turn, there are too many outs for you against too many possible hands to fold.

I'm raising the river, I usually don't think of going for just one overcall with such a strong hand. I'd love for BB to have 74o or something and get in a raising war.

@bsolute_luck · #4 12-13-2005, 04:48 PM

bet the flop. and yes i raise the river. i think we'll see a set of 4s more than anything on that board making a FH.

#5 12-13-2005, 05:28 PM

This may seem like a stupid question for you but why should I bet the flop ?
Should I cap if I'm reraised on river ? and what if MP2 reraises and BB caps ?
Thank you.

WalkAmongUs · #6 12-13-2005, 05:43 PM

i'm not sure whether I like a bet on the flop here. I want to hear an argument for betting.

if I have TPGK on this board and you bet, i'm probably raising. I think one of the really strong points in my game is defending against free cards and aggressive drawing hands.

at 2/4 theres only occasionally times where a flush draw has enough callers for a raised flop to be +EV for them (u would need 3 callers for it to be clearly +EV). Usually at this limit if theres a flop raise there only ends up being 2-3 going to the turn (including the flush draw).

If you bet out on this flop and the player behind you raises, and everyone drops, then all of a sudden you are in a -EV situation. You're putting in 50% of the money and only getting 35% back. Even if one person calls the raise, you're still in a -EV situation, although its only a very, very slightly -EV one.

If I was MP2 and had a Q with a good kicker, you'd definitely be getting raised in order to try to knock everyone out and get it heads up.

I guess in summary, I'm saying pay attention to who is behind you before betting a draw as well as what kind of game you're in. At 2/4, betting this draw will put you in a -EV situation more times than not.

#7 12-13-2005, 06:46 PM

Anyone for an argument for betting ?

McGahee · #8 12-13-2005, 07:04 PM

Interesting - if BB were a better player this would be an easy call on 4th Street but with those stats he has trips minimum every time, which makes some of your outs dirty and it's not a particularly big pot getting 7:2 with 14 outs at best and bad relative position. Would it be dumb to fold this? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

#9 12-13-2005, 07:09 PM

I think it's pretty iffy either way on the turn. BB's stats would suggest that he probably has a made hand. If you call the turn and hit, (if it were me), I'd raise the river every time here.

#10 12-13-2005, 07:14 PM

BB is representing a 4 out of the BB. Either that or a full house. Whatever it is, he's representing huge strength. I play the hand the same way, except I raise the river, call a 3-bet.