Through the eyes of Villain - misplayed on every street?

[MN_Mime]

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Less of a debate and more of a Q: where do you get "more than 50% of those cases" and the 11 outs from?

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There are 4 situations:

1) I'm drawing dead. Either player (but villain specifically since he's playing back at me) has turned an A-high flush. I have a hard time accepting that this hand is not the A9 with the action, but who knows? Or I'm behind a bigger PP with a club (2 red ten outs), obviously not jacks when the river jack falls.

2) I'm behind with a live redraw. There are a number of hands I trail but can beat as a 3:1 dog (any red ten - 2 outs, any club - 9 outs).
a) A bigger PP that does not hold a club (50%, > 50% on the river)
b) Two pair or a set; neither of which can hold a club bigger than mine and a ten counterfeits either. In the former case, I have 3 additional outs because the board can pair and counterfeit his two pair; just not sure which one.

3) I'm ahead and he's got a redraw.
a) 2 overcards (unlikely to impossible) - dodge 4 or 5 outs. one or both is not a club.
b) A bigger club (and probably top pair) - I have to dodge 8 clubs and 2 or 3 overcards
c) An underpair to which he can draw to 2 pair or a set - 2-4 outs.

4) I'm ahead and he's drawing nearly dead
a) a lower PP with a club - 2 outs; 1 out if he's missing the club of trump.

I felt Case 1 was more likely for SB than villain but how do you explain such reads? Case 4 seems unlikely. I think Case 2 & 3 account for 85% of the times and I agree with Bozlax that Case 2 is more likely. How much more likely and do I have the right odds to 3-bet is the crux of our argument and I need to improve in working that out. Is 50%/35% a good stab? 60%/25%?


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For some reason, the more I read this HH the more I feel villain played like he held KQ or KJ. This is, of course, before the J falls on the river. The line he takes with the flop is consistent with that, especially with the overs. On this turn, with his 3bet, I'm putting him on KJ. Correct me if I'm wrong or sounding weak.

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I agree. The thing about the overpair theory that didn't jibe with me is that AA or KK should have protected earlier. The only overpairs that make sense with this action are QQ[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] or JJ[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. And when the J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] fell on the river, that eliminated most of the hands I was afraid of (e.g. KJs, QJs, J9s, and JJ[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]) and made me decide he was on TPTK (either could be a club [50%] or both and I'm drawing dead), a set (which I beat), or an overpair (which I beat >50% since I see the J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]). At that point, I thought wrongly or rightly that a value bet was correct.

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Btw, what blinds are we talking about here? If they're .5/1, I'm giving villain too much credit.

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Yes. $.50/$1.00

[MN_Mime]

Thanks for the debate. It's clarifying for me to hear how others view the action and you may be right.

It's all good.