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#11
11-10-2005, 01:21 PM
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Re: 50/100 NL hand vs Far
[ QUOTE ]
One problem with this push is he can have a pair + diamond draw now and be priced into calling. [/ QUOTE ] Do you think he has the right price to call with a pair/flush draw? 
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#12
11-10-2005, 01:26 PM
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Re: 50/100 NL hand vs Far
Tell me if my Math is Wrong:
Lets assume that I will win 22% of the time on the river when he calls. 22(22,000) = 484000 78(9,200) = -717600 484000 - 717600 = -233600 Which means that I will lose -$2,336 everytime he calls. x7200 + y(-2336) = EV Let x=1, Let EV=1 7200/2336 = 3.08 Which means if he folds ~25% of the time or more then my play is +EV. any mistakes?
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#14
11-10-2005, 01:57 PM
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Re: 50/100 NL hand vs Far
I think your math is wrong Kane.
let x = % time he folds. so (1-x) = times he calls 7200 in pot 9200 left in your stack Assuming 22% equity when called Then your push is EV neutral when 7200x + (1-x){(.22)(22000) - 9200} = 0 Solving for x you need a fold roughly 38% of time here
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#15
11-10-2005, 01:58 PM
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Re: 50/100 NL hand vs Far
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] One problem with this push is he can have a pair + diamond draw now and be priced into calling. [/ QUOTE ] Do you think he has the right price to call with a pair/flush draw? [/ QUOTE ] no, but its close enough that most players arent folding.
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#16
11-10-2005, 02:06 PM
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Re: 50/100 NL hand vs Far
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] One problem with this push is he can have a pair + diamond draw now and be priced into calling. [/ QUOTE ] Do you think he has the right price to call with a pair/flush draw? [/ QUOTE ] no, but its close enough that most players arent folding. [/ QUOTE ] definitely agreeing w/ fsuplayer here. i dont see most players folding. so i guess if opponent is most players i dont like it.
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#17
11-10-2005, 02:10 PM
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Re: 50/100 NL hand vs Far
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] One problem with this push is he can have a pair + diamond draw now and be priced into calling. [/ QUOTE ] Do you think he has the right price to call with a pair/flush draw? [/ QUOTE ] this is far out of my expertise, but anyway... he gets almost 3:1 on his call. if he has a diamond draw+pair, he has 7 to 14 outs if behind, lets say 10(?) on average. if he is ahead against a semi bluff, he usualy has 29 or 30 good cards in the deck (32 or 33 if the rank of one card matches yours). that means there must be only a chance of about 10% that you are semi bluffing to make the call correct. that means he should definitely call with a pair + diamond draw imo.
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#18
11-10-2005, 02:11 PM
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Re: 50/100 NL hand vs Far
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] One problem with this push is he can have a pair + diamond draw now and be priced into calling. [/ QUOTE ] Do you think he has the right price to call with a pair/flush draw? [/ QUOTE ] no, but its close enough that most players arent folding. [/ QUOTE ] don't you think those 'most players' are right to consider, that hero might be bluffing (with a probability of at very least 10%)?
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#20
11-10-2005, 02:16 PM
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Re: 50/100 NL hand vs Far
[ QUOTE ]
I think your math is wrong Kane. let x = % time he folds. so (1-x) = times he calls 7200 in pot 9200 left in your stack Assuming 22% equity when called Then your push is EV neutral when 7200x + (1-x){(.22)(22000) - 9200} = 0 Solving for x you need a fold roughly 38% of time here [/ QUOTE ] *edit* sorry, my bad after thinking it through, i agree completely.
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