Math help (mild whine, you've been warned)

CondoBrian · #1 06-04-2005, 04:52 PM

Played a SNG today. First hand I get AQ, raise, one caller. Flop comes A-J-10. He bets, I raise, he folds. Standard.

Here's where the math is needed.

Very next hand, I get AdKd. Raise. Same guy moves all in. Call. He turns over K-10 off. Catches a 10 on the river. Ha ha, that's poker.

Very next hand, I get AKo. Raise. Folds to same guy, who moves all in. Call. He turns over AQo. Catches a queen on the river. SNG over for me.

What are the odds of dominating the same guy twice in a row and him catching 3 outers both times? Ruined my day, it did. [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]

golfcchs · #2 06-04-2005, 10:58 PM

You have about 55.5% to win both hands

wrestler_118 · #3 06-04-2005, 11:28 PM

There are 3 possible outcomes:
(The math can change slightly depending on the exact combination of suits)

First, you win the first all in and eliminate your opponent = 75.1%
Second, you lose the first all in, but win the second = 18.4%
Third, you lose both all ins = 6.5%

Hope that helps

Mathemagician · #4 06-05-2005, 01:31 AM

Tonight at our weekly live tourney+cash game I lost Kings full of nines to a runner-runner royal flush (all-in on the flop), all-in preflop overpair to underpair twice, and had a set beaten by a rivered inside straight (not all-in). Worst night I've had in a long, long time for bad beats. Feel any better? [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]