Question for NPA - Ed Miller (and any other worthwhile opinions)

[MAxx]

I am saying something to the extent of "Well what were you hopeing to catch on the river." IMO, by calling turn cap you are implying that you do not believe an opponent has a fullboat or you are a least willing to bet against it.

I see the logic in your statement though...

[arkady]

I see what you are saying, but each street presents itself with its own piece of information.

You could be facing trips on the turn and hit your flush and still be good...unless the trips just rivered a FH. So while you may have decided to stick with it, no one is to say that you are still commited if you see that your flush card was actually counterfeited.

I am not arguing for calling the turn just saying that its not always so clear.

[Toms]

You raised utg and then a scary flop comes and you bet and and you are raised, you have to be thinking your opponent has hit the set and maybe more with the connectors on the board. You are about 23-1 to hit runner, runner and even catching an ace or jack might not be enough to win, I think I would give it up here and not feel like I gave up too much especially after the bb calls not afraid of either raiser. This may be a wimpy play but if a spade hadn't come on the turn i think you would have been asking what am I doing here.

[Kevin]

I am a little confused.

First of all, sorry about making the personal request. This hand happened two weeks ago and I have been thinking about it ever since. I got his book yesterday, read about hidden outs, partial outs, folding when the pot is big and it hit me to post it. I have been trying hard not to make the "good fold" that costs me a pot and went the other way this time.

I posted this a 6pm yesterday. Now, a lot of you guys were playing, but there were 17 posts that were made after this and 22 that had responses. When I got up early to go to the office this morning about 4 am - 10 hours later, I posted the results - only because I was sure that I wasn't going to get responses and it was on its way to being buried. Alas, as soon as the results were posted, I get blasted - but not one came before the results were there. On the flop, I had (according to what I read in his book - if I understood correctly), 1.5 (partial) outs to the backdoor flush, 1.5 parital) outs to the back door straight, 3 js and 3 aces. that is 9. The 8s was obviously not clean, and maybe the aces and jacks weren't clean, but I continued to read that I should not assume the worst every single time in low limit games. So, discounted, maybe, it is at best 5 -

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you have to be thinking your opponent has hit the set

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(I was more worried about the blind with a 9 than the flop raiser - wouldn't he normally wait to pop me on 4th with trips or full? Maybe he had an over pair like 10s, maybe he had J10 suited (not spade obviously with the jack) for a nut straight draw back door flush draw (the pot was big so he might be trying to buy outs versus keeping customers in(again, another concept that I am trying fully grasp and understand)). The big blind had 8-1 to close the action so he could have about any 2 suited - with a 9 as a distinct possibility. Of couse the raiser could have also had 88, 98, 99, 4 aces in his hand, but I am trying to balance not fearing the worst with not assuming that he had the only hand that I could beat - and his flop raise (in my weak/feeble fishy - "what are the hands that I can beat" mind) did not tell me that he was full.

On 4th, BB check raises, I pick up the nut flush draw, backdoor straight draw - . He called the two cold on the flop which gave me the feeling that he could be lurking with a 9, but it could be 95 suited, J9 o, Q9o, etc. as much as it could be A9 or 97, 98.

So, the calling two cold right was a fundamental decision that I had to decide if I was drawing dead or not. If I thought that they were both full, it was an easy fold, and the bb check raise told me that he had at least the 9 - was he full?. Again, shame on me for not reading the CO for 88 because I thought that if he had that hand, he would make me pay on 4th versus the flop raise. I fully expected him to slow down. when it is 2 more bets back, I guess I should have assume that both had full houses and folded and there was another miserable mistake

Unless the CO coldcalled preflop with KK or someone had K9, I didn't feel that the river changed anything - except making my miracle backdoor draw. I figured with the cap and the flush on the board, one of the fellows would slow down and if there was a full, I could have seen it for one bet, but it comes down to - if I thought I was drawing to the best hand and made it, then treat it like it is the best hand - otherwise dump it earlier. 2 bets back to me, I am getting 27/2 in the miracle that I am good 7.5% of the time. Oh $%$# 1 more bet back to me now it is 32/1, now I need to be right about 3% of the time (and I don't like my chances on that).

This was exactly why I posted this. If I check folded the flop, it might have been someone taking a stab at a large pot and I might very well have been best - there were exactly 5 cards out there that matched the 8 and 9's as well as potential pocket pairs (and if it is a pocket pair, I have as many potentially clean outs as an OESD). If I didn't pick up the redraw on 4th (I wish I wouldn't have), it would have been an easy check fold situation. Maybe I have it all wrong. I am trying to find the balance between assuming the best and assuming the worst and haven't got there yet.

Thanks for your help and feedback.
Kevin

[mikeyvegas]

Kevin,

I read this post this morning and put some thought into it. I really don't know how I play this hand differenlty except maybe the river where I might raise and when it would have been two more bets back to me I might have been able to fold(but probably not). You have the nut flush on a single paired board. I've always thought this was a pretty strong hand. The way the flop and turn were played you could have been up against flopped trips and turned nut str8 just as likely as flopped boat and turned boat. I would just chalk this up as one of those hands and move on to the next one. I would be curious to see how many bets most 2+2ers would have lost on the turn and river in this hand. I would guess most would have had the same results as you.

[ElSapo]

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I would be curious to see how many bets most 2+2ers would have lost on the turn and river in this hand. I would guess most would have had the same results as you.


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I really have been shocked at how many people said they would play this hand the same way. I think the fold on the turn is a very simple one, and the posters who say "eh, it happens, move on" are making a large error.

I try and reserve "eh, it happens," for when he sucks out on me -- not when I try to suck out when drawing dead.

You're paying a minimum of two bets on the turn, and already it's obvious that no one is worried about you being in this hand. And even if they have trips and you're drawing live, you still may end up paying 4 BB total on the turn. And then if the flush hits, -and- the out was clean, you probably wont get paid 4 BB back.

So I like the turn fold. The "don't fold in big pots" idea does not apply when (a) the pot isn't really that big; (b) especially compared with the possibility that you're drawing dead.

On the river, you made your hand. You raise. Simple raise. And when it comes back capped, assuming you made it this far, you fold. I don't think your hand is good enough times to justify 2 more BB when it comes back.

I'm pretty sure there are some misapplied ideas in this hand, and I'm certain that the "eh, it happens" attitude needs to be reserved for a bad beat someone put on you -- not on times when you decided to draw dead.

ElSapo

[mikeyvegas]

If a turned board of 9s 9c 8d 7s gets capped by two "typical" party opponents, is it safe to assume that most of the time at least one of them has a full house? That's where I'm having trouble with this hand, because I don't think it's safe to assume that in a 3/6 or lower game. Maybe this is a leak I have in my game that needs to be corrected. I do agree that this is not a huge pot before turn, so I guess folding to 2-bets cold on the turn has more merit than I originally considered.

[Kevin]

Ed's definition of a big pot. (If I remember correctly) 6 preflop in an unraised pot 4 in a raised pot preflop. There were 5 and it was raised preflop. 6 more sb's on the flop. I would consider 11 bbs going to the turn to be a very large pot which will swell to a minimum of 15-17.

That being said, I wanted to clarify that this was not an aw shucks hand. In a previous post, I folded a set of jacks to one bet on the end with a 4 flush and 4 straight on the board in a big pot and got flamed pretty hand. A flush took it, but I only had to win about 9% of the time. I guess the secret is 1 bet - but there were 4 overcallers behind me and I thought I would get raised and reraised. I was trying to learn from that lambasting and not fold, but it sounds like it was a pretty big mistake. I think that there was extra equity in the draw with the gutshot straight draw - and it came down to was I drawing dead. It is dead and done. lesson learned, 10 bbs lost.

[Toms]

The lesson I learned here and in many other posts is there is no absolute right or wrong in many of the situations you come across in hold em even in this example there is still much information missing type of players type of game etc. Some lessons are learned through experience and others from a book, obviusly this was a good question and a tough situation that some would play different then others and thats why we all play.

[nepenthe]

In this situation, without reading any other relies, the point at which you must SERIOUSLY contemplate folding is when it comes back to you capped on the turn. Failing that, when it comes back to you 2 cold on the river, it's tough but it's a fold. Not even the fools at party could play anything this aggressively unless they had a FH.