AJo......Stage 1 of play along

[Jake (The Snake)]

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Now in order for that to have/be of VALUE, this figure (.8BB) must exceed the value of raising the flop.
If we estimate 40% equity for Hero on the flop, he only has to be called in two spots for the value of a flop raise to exceed the value of waiting for the turn.

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I didn't check your other numbers, but I'm preety sure this is off. First of all I think you confused BB with SB... and also I think you are forgetting that you dont have 100% equity in the bet that you are putting in. If we have 40% equity against two callers, Hero only gains (.4)(3) - 1 = .2 SB or .1 BB

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Now in order for that to have/be of VALUE, this figure (.8BB) must exceed the value of raising the flop.
If we estimate 40% equity for Hero on the flop, he only has to be called in two spots for the value of a flop raise to exceed the value of waiting for the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

I didn't check your other numbers, but I'm preety sure this is off. First of all I think you confused BB with SB... and also I think you are forgetting that you dont have 100% equity in the bet that you are putting in. If we have 40% equity against two callers, Hero only gains (.4)(3) - 1 = .2 SB or .1 BB

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Yes you are correct. I exchanged sb for BB because they are calling 2sb after Hero raises but you are correct they are only calling an additional 1sb over what they would if Hero waited. And yes I did overlook the investment on Hero's behalf in the raise.

But there are a number of equalising factors which make the principle still hold true.

1. The equity of a naked gutshot on the turn is closer to 6% due to the presence of the flush draw.
2. The chance that villians hold JUST a gutshot and are likely to fold them is grossly overexaggerated
3. If one villian holds KQ (and doesn't fold) and another holds a naked K (and does fold) Hero has actually lost .5BB by folding the gutshot. Along with all the hands that Hero has crushed that would have called a single turn bet.

4. The amount of times that SB leads this turn is another % I grossly overestimated in an attempt to exaggerate the point (which has slightly backfired)

Thankyou for pointing this out. EV calculations (the correct versions) are still relatively new to me.

However, the value of waiting for the turn to raise is significantly reduced when Hero holds anything more than a single pair.

Bottom line -
Value of raising flop>Value of waiting for the turn.