Chris Simms = Guaranteed money

I forgot teams play the same in front of a home crowd and on the road. Silly me.

Last time it was Atlanta (at New Orleans), now it's Carolina. Same old story 'round here. This time though I'm not on TB for very much.

[craig r]

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Vegas is predicting a 1.5 pt spread in favor of Carolina. I doubt you are smarter than Vegas, so I will take my chances with TB covering, and I think I will be right 55% of the time or so.

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So based on this logic one should always take the favorite?

craig

p.s. The line doesn't come out of vegas.

p.p.s. The line is put up to give the bookmaker the advantage.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Vegas is predicting a 1.5 pt spread in favor of Carolina. I doubt you are smarter than Vegas, so I will take my chances with TB covering, and I think I will be right 55% of the time or so.

[/ QUOTE ]

So based on this logic one should always take the favorite?

craig

p.s. The line doesn't come out of vegas.

p.p.s. The line is put up to give the bookmaker the advantage.

[/ QUOTE ]

I made my point the wrong way. I meant that since money is going in so big on Carolina, and the line hasn't moved, I'll take my chances. Also, I was saying that the linesmakers aren't predicting a blowout, and I trust them more than some random who talks about "guarenteed money".

[bills217]

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p.p.s. The line is put up to give the bookmaker the advantage.

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Color me a n00b, but what exactly do you mean by this?

[craig r]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
p.p.s. The line is put up to give the bookmaker the advantage.

[/ QUOTE ]

Color me a n00b, but what exactly do you mean by this?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, without trying to start a huge debate, because this topic always does, but it is a myth that the book wants even action on a game. They want to win money. And knowing where the money is going to go and the -110 one has to lay (in most instances) they are at a huge advantage.

craig

p.s. Oh, I forgot to call you a Noob, Noob [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

All I am saying is that Chris Simms is pathetic. If you watched the game, it was very obvious how bad he was/is. Sorry that I said the word guaranteed, this obviously was not a very technical or mathematical post, but if you have ever watched Chris Simms, it is very apparent that he is scared and terrible, and makes the worst possible decision when it matters. Tampa is not that good a team, I think this Sunday will prove that, but again, I am not trying to actually say it is guaranteed, it was just a joke. Aight, good luck, if you bet on TB, foolish.

Whenever someone uses the terms "guaranteed money" and "bet the house", I almost always want to bet the other side. Unfortunately, I also have money on Carolina this week. I like their chances to win but I think it's far from a sure thing.

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if you bet on TB, foolish.

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Love the wise commentary, much appreciated. Btw the anti-Simms bets jumped the shark last week so I'm sorry if you weren't able to get it in on then when San Fran covering +11 was far more of a sure thing.

[LargeCents]

I'm taking Carolina, but I wouldn't care if Griese (healthy) or Simms were starting. I simply think Carolina has a lot more grit than Tampa. I'll be very suprised if this is some kind of blowout. Probably comes down to a final drive for a field goal, and whoever has more guts will pull it out. Take Carolina on the Moneyline.

Don't be so brash and hasty - he hadn't seen live snaps in two months before last week's game. You better believe TB will come out flying -- this one will be alot closer than you think.