Pot odds + Ace + Sooted, what to do

[the shadow]

Phoenix, I agree entirely that there's more to a poker hand than figuring out what's you're ahead of or behind.

You're also right that my post didn't mention the pot odds. It wouldn't be correct, however, to suggest that I didn't consider it.

I'm not in love with calling a push for nearly a quarter of my stack when I'm likely a 60/40 or 66/34 dog. You can pay me to do it, but I'd like a little more than t300 to do so. Heck I can get that, with less risk, by stealing the blinds once. Maybe if there were a limper or bigger blinds, so there were more dead money, or maybe if I were risking only 10% of my stack, I'd take the gamble, but not here.

I'm sure you'll agree, but there's also more to playing a poker hand -- especially a SNG -- than just pot odds.

The Shadow (who always appreciates someone pointing out something he got wrong or missed)

P.S. adanthar wrote a good post -- "I am only a coinflip, so I fold" -- on the same point you were making.

P.P.S. I wonder how many posters would be suggesting calling the push if the hand weren't sooted.

[curtains]

I believe I'd fold.

[Scuba Chuck]

Good post. Amazing no one has approached this from the right direction. There has only been a small discussion on hand ranges. Furthermore, no one has applied any math to this. Sigh.

Scuba
who's next to positive that pushing this hand is +$EV, but probably still folds.

[ilya]

[ QUOTE ]
Good post. Amazing no one has approached this from the right direction. There has only been a small discussion on hand ranges. Furthermore, no one has applied any math to this. Sigh.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hey now. I did the math.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
Good post. Amazing no one has approached this from the right direction. There has only been a small discussion on hand ranges. Furthermore, no one has applied any math to this. Sigh.


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Hey now. I did the math.

[/ QUOTE ]

Lol, my message was not meant for you smarty pants. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[zaphod]

[ QUOTE ]
Looks like a push to me, unless you think UTG's pushing range is even tighter than something like "AA-88, AKs-A8s, KQs-KJs, AKo-A8o." Your equity if you fold is around 17%; as long as you're at least 37% or so against UTG's range, you gain equity by pushing - as long as the BB always folds to your push. I suppose the BB will occasionally call, and you'll probably be in real trouble when that happens, so to be on the safe side you probably don't want to push unless you figure to be at least 39% or so against UTG's range. So just put him on something looser than the sample range I gave, and you're good to go.

I'm sorry I initially slandered your 86o push. I should have given you the benefit of the doubt and done some calcs before going off on you.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes even a passive UTG will wake up here i think. I think he is pushing way more hands than your thight example, something like:
-Any pair
-Any ace or king
-possibly some suited connectors and a few queens.

[ilya]

Btw, how come you still fold?

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
Btw, how come you still fold?

[/ QUOTE ]

Primarily because this is a $55, and I think BB is smart enough to call with most hands. I'd rather gain by either his tournament finish via BB, or have him win, and have a likely good blind stealing opp.

[Newt_Buggs]

bah, i scribbled down the math and figured out that it was very positive EV to push, but was too lazy to figure out what i had written down and turn it into a coherent post. I guess Scuba's post made me realize I really am a lazy bastad and should have posted this earlier today:

assuming that you push and the BB folds, you are investing 380 to win 1160. I put UTG on any pair, A, K, or Q. Yes, loose, but can you really say what he is pushing with here?
you will beat UTG 54% of the time on this range.
win the pot (.54)(1160)=+626.4
lose the pot: (.46)(380)=-174.8
net: +451.6 against UTG
however, I put the BB on a tight range, or AQ+,10+ which I think is accurate for most good players (dont know how competant he is though, personally I might fold AQ in his position)
A5s will beat this matchup 31.2%
you will lose 1610 chips (.69)=-1110
you will win 1610 (.31)= 499
net -610.9
there is only a 4% chance he will call: (.04)-610.9=-25
The problem with this? I don't know how to calculate 3 way all ins given hand ranged. Can this be done with SnG Power tools and if not anyone want to tell me how else?

451-25= +426

Assuming that I did the math correctly, this is no small edge.

Problems with my calculations:
1. As said before calculating in the BB calling is incomplete, but unless you think that he is calling with a wider range of hands this is almost meaningless anyway.
2. As always, showing down this push w A5s will look reckless and cause negative FE later, especially if you lose and double up the short stack pissing off all of the fish. The BB will be more wary of you as well.
3. The hand ranges are optimistic. 426 +EV is very large though and I would expect that you can narrow the UTG pushing range and increase the BB calling range significantly before this number becomes marginal.

[ilya]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Btw, how come you still fold?

[/ QUOTE ]

Primarily because this is a $55, and I think BB is smart enough to call with most hands. I'd rather gain by either his tournament finish via BB, or have him win, and have a likely good blind stealing opp.

[/ QUOTE ]

I figured that into my math. I did 20% BB folds, 35% BB wins, 45% BB loses. It still looked like a push if UTG's range is not tighter than the one I specified.