I would fold and steal on the next hand

[RobGW]

Phil,
I love the overall jist of this post. I also see too many people passing up +EV in the name of blind stealing. Sure there are situations that this could be correct. But one must consider two things. How tight the two people to your left are. The tighter they are the better to steal. And how aggressive are the players to your right. The more aggressive they are, the less chance you have to steal. If you have aggressive players to your right and loose players to your left you may want to fold and get out of the way. However, my default play is usually to call if its +EV. Once in a while I will deviate from that but I have to have a specific reason to do that. I think too many people overvalue theire ability to steal and overvalue their survival equity. This leads to too much folding and too many 3rds and not enough 1st place finishes.

[Phil Van Sexton]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Phil here's some numbers for you:

There is 6 ways to make any pocket pair
There are 13 Total pocket pairs

Pairs = 13*6 = 78 of total possible hand combinations

There are 16 possible ways of making any other two card combo.
2 card combos = (169-13)*16 = 2,496

Total possible card combinations = 2,496+78= 2,574

Therefore AA-77 = 48 possible card combinations
AK = 16
Total = 64

Probability of getting this = 64/2574 = 2.49%

[/ QUOTE ]

There are not 16 ways of making any other two card combo. There are 12 ways of making an offsuit hand and 4 ways of making a suited hand.

The total number of starting hands is 1326.

Paul

[/ QUOTE ]

Paul is right. There are 6 ways to make a pair of Aces:
AcAd, AcAs, AcAh, AdAs, AdAh, AsAh

1326/6 = 221

I'm sure you recognize 220:1 odds for getting aces from various books and other places.

Also, 6/1326 = 0.0045

Just like the 0.45% that I used (the second time).

4 ways to make a suited hand (0.30%), 12 ways for unsuited (0.90%).

We have 7 pairs (AA-77), 2 suited (AKs, AQs) and 2 unsuited (AKo, AQo).

((7 * 6) + (2 * 4) + (2 * 12)) / 1326 = 0.0558

I used 5.55% (different because I rounded some stuff).

The correct answer is 5.58%. Thanks Paul.

[Scuba Chuck]

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I think too many people overvalue theire ability to steal and overvalue their survival equity.

[/ QUOTE ]


Huh, someone actually agrees with me. I'm pretty sure those were almost my words.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
There are not 16 ways of making any other two card combo. There are 12 ways of making an offsuit hand and 4 ways of making a suited hand.


[/ QUOTE ]

I'm pretty sure that you just said the same thing. 16 ways to make AK. 12 offsuit, 4 suited.

[ QUOTE ]
The total number of starting hands is 1326.


[/ QUOTE ]

correct. My mistake, I doubled counted the suited vs. offsuited hands.

169 total hand combos.
13 pairs
156 two card combos
Divide that by two and get 78

78*16= 1,248
13*6=78
1,248+78= 1,326

My mistake

So AA-77 = 48
AK = 16

64/1326 = 4.83%

Include AQ = 6.0%

[syka16]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think too many people overvalue theire ability to steal and overvalue their survival equity.

[/ QUOTE ]


Huh, someone actually agrees with me. I'm pretty sure those were almost my words.

[/ QUOTE ]


When I'm around T600 at 50/25 with 7+ players left and know that I'm not going to have a chance to steal due to limping or loose callers to the left, I'm looking for a coinflip with limpers already in and I'm pushing ATo, A9s, KQo, KJs and 77+. I'm not really sure what else to do... Anyone else follow this?

[Scuba Chuck]

syka, I think you're feeling desperate, and there isn't a need to do that until you're sub 5BB.

Furthermore, pushing looks less manacing than a 3-3.5BB raise, IMO