Presto

[Phil Van Sexton]

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I think its just more of the same math we've already done.

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Those were my assumptions, but don't know if we need a ^ to do any calcs ever.

Then, why not assume a 25% probability that BB calls, and choose a very narrow calling range.

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25%? Thats too easy.

Here are my assumptions. When you BB calls, you win 30% of the time. UTG and BB each win 35% of the time. If UTG wins, hero and BB are 50/50 to win the side pot.

Looking at PokerStove, this is pretty conservative, I think. You should do better than 30%.

Anyway, your ICM when BB calls is 0.12. Remember folding was .127.

Equation is (0.2833 * .3) + (0.044 * .35) + (0.07 * .175) + (0.0433 * .175) = 0.12

My ICM when BB folded was 0.151. So...
(0.151 * .75) + (0.12 * .25) = .143

If BB calls 50%, it's 0.135

Your ICM with super tight UTG was 0.132.
At 25% call, that's 0.129.
At 50% call, that's 0.126.

Again, folding is 0.127.

Therefore, there may be hand ranges where this is a fold. This is why I posted it. I really had no idea at the time.

I still think it's a call. If you think its a fold, I don't really have a problem with it. However, if you see this hand and say "fold" without putting any thought into it, there is a problem.

It seems that a lot of people learned from Aleo's guide and it takes lots of calculations to convince them that calling with anything below JJ might be correct. At least Scuba is willing to consider this alternative.

As someone who plays a lot of side games, I immediately recognized calling with 55 as a +EV situation. I then do some quick estimates in my head to determine if its +$EV. I need a legitimate reason to turn down +EV situations. Quite often, I will find one and fold, but I'll look first.

I think other people see 55 and immediately think "fold". If they even consider an alternative, it takes a lot of evidence to change their mind.

It's not about calling and folding. It's about $EV, and you can't determine the $EV without first determining EV.

If you think you can determine $EV without first determining the EV, you are either much smarter than me, or you are doing things wrong.

[microbet]

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It seems that a lot of people learned from Aleo's guide and it takes lots of calculations to convince them that calling with anything below JJ might be correct.

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When calling down shortstack all-ins, you want to have AT-AK and pairs 77-AA.

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That was from Aleo's guide. It was referring to when there were 4 left, but he didn't have the space to break out when more people are left, but blinds are still high.

[Phil Van Sexton]

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It seems that a lot of people learned from Aleo's guide and it takes lots of calculations to convince them that calling with anything below JJ might be correct.

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When calling down shortstack all-ins, you want to have AT-AK and pairs 77-AA.

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That was from Aleo's guide. It was referring to when there were 4 left, but he didn't have the space to break out when more people are left, but blinds are still high.

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Good catch. I didn't mean to put down the guide, so I probably shouldn't even have mentioned it without checking what it actually said.

Maybe people misinterpretted the guide, or got their ideas from elsewhere, or maybe I was exaggerating.

[microbet]

There have been a few discussions lately of bubble situations where there is a tiny stack and hero is not a big stack where you needed a very strong hand to call.