Settle an arguement I am having with Rojosox

[Rojosox]

if I said to you, someone was going to push before you, if you win this hand you get 1st, do you call with A8? I put the game on the line here, as i clearly think you're favored 90% of the time.

[prepotency]

[ QUOTE ]
if I said to you, someone was going to push before you, if you win this hand you get 1st, do you call with A8? I put the game on the line here, as i clearly think you're favored 90% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

Looking back at the payouts:
[ QUOTE ]
$2400 to winner, $1450 to second, and $850 for third.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd probably call because if you win you are getting first and if you loose you will probably get second (I'm assuming that every player is all in including shortie).
So ya, I think I'd go with it. It's pretty close either way I think. You'll probably average 2nd if you fold and average 2nd if you call anyways.

[willie]

folds. edit, just saw the blinds

calls and wishes he didn't.

[rohjoh]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
if I said to you, someone was going to push before you, if you win this hand you get 1st, do you call with A8? I put the game on the line here, as i clearly think you're favored 90% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

Looking back at the payouts:
[ QUOTE ]
$2400 to winner, $1450 to second, and $850 for third.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd probably call because if you win you are getting first and if you loose you will probably get second (I'm assuming that every player is all in including shortie).
So ya, I think I'd go with it. It's pretty close either way I think. You'll probably average 2nd if you fold and average 2nd if you call anyways.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you are right, Rojosox heckled me from the rail, saying that it was an insta push. Of course the short stack doubled up, and I would have knocked him out with A8 when the 8 hit.

[Rojosox]

I was only heckling you because I wanted you to win. And I'm only busting your balls now because I am jealous that you finished about 600 places in front of me [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Big Limpin']

I would suggest surreptitiously nicking a black chip off the BB while the dealer is shuffling up before the hand. It would make the call MUCH easier. [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

[Gramps]

[ QUOTE ]
Button (t11,500)
HERO (t10,250)
BB(t3300)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Ah,8c
Button (who has not pushed once to this point) Pushes all in.
Hero?

[/ QUOTE ]

So...

(1) The button has not pushed yet
(2) He knows there's about 0% chance of stealing the blinds and that he will have to win a showdown against BB's hand.

What range of hands do you think the button is pushing here? I'm putting him on a range that A8o is 50% against at best (roughly top 1/3 of hands). Even if you were a slightly > 50% favorite, it's still a bad call, b/c a lot of BB's will fold and try to freeroll into 2nd (knowing their "random" BB hand has to win a 3-way pot to not finish 3rd).

By folding, on the next hand (absent a tie), you will either be HU and at least $600 richer (BB knocked out), or you will get to act first (with a bit of a"stealing edge") and have the option to push the button yourself (with the other two players probably not wanting to call you)) against two other equal stacks.

Sure, if the button had a non-pair/non-Ace hand you were a favorite, but the times he flips over a bigger pair or bigger Ace, you're a huge dog. He hasn't been playing aggressive. Calling would be bad IMO here.

If it was a much bigger jump from 2nd to 1st vs. 3rd to 2nd, then calling becomes a better play.

[maddog2030]

These payouts are close to identical to normal sng structure. That said, I think this is a fairly easy fold based on the information this is his first push. He should've been pushing a lot more ealier than this. I assume this means he doesn't know exactly what he's doing.

If you call, you're going to be in a 3 way hand for 1st with the best but still only a %40 winner. The initial raiser is going to gain at most 1.5 blinds. That's huge here where theres only 7-8 blinds in play, but you still have close to half the chips in play. I'd fold here and push first in of the remaining hands with any 2 unless you're pretty sure he'll call anyway. If he'd call your later pushes with anything then I'd call here.

I'm basing my guess that he would fold some hands later on even with ridiculous blinds based on the fact that he waited until now to make his first push. But obviously I'm no expert, this is just a newbie's analysis.

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]

Hero?

[/ QUOTE ]

....folds.

Folding is sublime.

Yugoslav

[Daliman]

I think call is the prudent play here. BB isn't folding in most cases.