Turn pairs board, Villain bets weak. Overpair plan?

[soah]

You got about 15% of your stack in preflop. If I manage to accomplish that heads-up then I am very rarely folding postflop.

Furthermore, the guy raised UTG and only has a PFR of 4%. It's very hard to give him credit for a ten.

And finally, I think you're giving the guy too much credit for being able to lay down hands if you push the turn. If he's come this far with any sort of pair, it's very doubtful that he'll fold it for another $20.

[momo24]

By pushing the turn, you are getting him to fold hands that you are ahead of and he's drawing thin with. But I'd rather take down the $50 in the pot right there than be put in the spot you were in on the river.

He bets enough to put you all-in on the river. Why? He was betting a monster on the turn, hoping you'd raise? Your flat-call on the turn meant you have overcards, the river was a blank so his pocket pair (or J) is good? In either case, the river couldn't have helped, so he's betting for value by putting you all in.

He had the flush draw and missed but your call on the turn makes him think you might just have overs and decides he can move you off your hand?

I'd rather take down a nice-sized pot on the turn than put myself in this position.

[soah]

[ QUOTE ]
Another thing to consider... the villain raised. You reraised the villain. If you aren't being a maniac, then the villain likely has defined your hand. He's got to have a good idea you have a high pocket pair.

[/ QUOTE ]

If this were the case then he would have folded preflop.

[KowCiller]

[ QUOTE ]
You got about 15% of your stack in preflop. If I manage to accomplish that heads-up then I am very rarely folding postflop.
...
And finally, I think you're giving the guy too much credit for being able to lay down hands if you push the turn. If he's come this far with any sort of pair, it's very doubtful that he'll fold it for another $20.


[/ QUOTE ]

So I take it you're in favor of a turn push as well?

KoW

[momo24]

How many hands have you played against villain? 25 hands? 1000?

[KowCiller]

[ QUOTE ]
How many hands have you played against villain? 25 hands? 1000?

[/ QUOTE ]

Between 100 and 150.

[kurto]

"If this were the case then he would have folded preflop." Since when do we fold everytime we know we have the weakest hand preflop? When someone raises, I still play my pocket pairs for set value.

If I raised with pocket jacks, and someone reraised, I might still see the flop.

I don't understand your response. You can't assume every villain is operating in a vacuum. The villain has to be putting the hero on a range of hands based on his betting.

[momo24]

Only asking because it would effect how much weight to give to his 4% pfr in determining his range of hands. 100 hands is probably a big enough sample that you can assume he's not willing to raise with any two cards, but it's still probably too small to say he must have TT+ or AJ+.

[kurto]

"So then you're in favor of a turn fold?" I'm only certain I'm not in favor of a call. If I think I'm ahead, then I would raise. (as you indicated you believed you were.)

If I don't think the guy's an idiot (which I cannot only base my read on what you tell me), then I would have to consider either folding (least likely), raising (and folding to an allin) or hoping he checks through the river if he calls.

If I thought he was a fish, I'd probably push it.

[TrailofTears]

[ QUOTE ]
Only asking because it would effect how much weight to give to his 4% pfr in determining his range of hands. 100 hands is probably a big enough sample that you can assume he's not willing to raise with any two cards, but it's still probably too small to say he must have TT+ or AJ+.

[/ QUOTE ]

From UTG, it might be.