Turn Semi-Bluff: Good or Bad?

PokerFink · #1 04-06-2005, 01:56 AM

Reads: The BB in this hand is a solid player for this limit. He is willing to laydown top pair to heavy resistance. I wasn't sure if he had a six or jack on the flop, but his 1.50 bet on the turn made me confident that he had a J, and I was also very confident he would lay it down to a strong check raise.

UTG+1 recently sat down, haven't seen anything noteworthy in his play.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (8 handed) converter

UTG ($25.55)
UTG+1 ($32.85)
MP1 ($19.50)
MP2 ($73.05)
CO ($47.25)
Button ($23.25)
Hero ($48.95)
BB ($103.10)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $0.50, 3 folds, Button calls $0.50, Hero completes, BB checks.

Flop: ($2) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
Hero checks, BB bets $1.5, UTG+1 calls $1.50, Button folds, Hero calls $1.50.

Turn: ($6.50) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, BB bets $1.5, UTG+1 calls $1.50, Hero raises to $10

Like it?

RED FACE · #2 04-06-2005, 02:11 AM

Seems to me turn raise is larger than required. Maybe a raise to $7 or so. This gives flush draw 2.4:1 when they need more than 4:1 to draw against your trips. For implied odds they need to make an additional $9 on river for their turn call to be correct.

Chimp · #3 04-06-2005, 02:21 AM

The players I see at this level NEVER lay down a jack to that. You'd better have a good read, baby!

PokerFink · #4 04-06-2005, 02:28 AM

It was. I have played with him a solid amount, including a couple hours that night.

Bongo · #5 04-06-2005, 02:51 AM

His turn bet makes him look weak and if I was in his seat with only a jack then I would surely fold to the check raise (unless you're a LAG, but I would probably fold anyway since UTG+1 is still in). Given that BB is good enough to lay down a jack a slight problem remains. UTG+1 has been calling on the flop and on the turn. Is he on a flush draw? Will he lay that draw down? I've seen some funky calls from people with flush draws. The big question is of course if he has a 6. He might actually have a 6. Slowplaying is just so very popular.

Ok, what I want to say is that I think UTG+1 should be a major concern here. That doesn't mean that the semi-bluff is a bad play. I think this is a good spot for one. Your play looks strong to me. Just don't be suprised if utg+1 reraises you.

PokerFink · #6 04-06-2005, 03:28 AM

Pretty much my exact thinking.

I think I like Red Face's suggestion, that a raise to 7 or 8 would accomplish the same thing, while letting me lose 2 less bucks if I get re-raised.

The REAL problem is what do I do if UTG+1 smooth calls. What if a diamond misses, do I make a small bluff and hope he had diamonds? If a diamond falls, what do I do?

Ooops, I just hijacked my own thread.

Bongo · #7 04-06-2005, 04:28 AM

if utg+1 smooth calls I wouldn't bet again. He called on a scary board I can't know if he was on a flush draw or if he has a hand. He doesn't have to be slowplaying something big. He could have a jack for instance and then he'll probably call again.

If I make my flush I will bet it. If I'm check raised or raised (forgot the position) then I have a hard decision and I don't really know what I would do in that case.

xorbie · #8 04-06-2005, 05:13 AM

You can probably get the same effect raising to $5 or $6, so I would do that.

I'm not convinced he has the J and not the 6, but given your read I think a check/raise is fine here, but make it less.

RED FACE · #9 04-06-2005, 10:37 AM

damn, sorry, I did this wrong-no sleep. and now here I go rambling...

raise to 7 gives flush draw 3:1. If he is a thinking player he knows 2d isn't an out so needs about 5:1 for his flush to be profitable and implied odds requires he win an additional $11 so 7 may still be ok if he thinks but if utg +1 is loose and not really a thinker then may go for it feeling he needs just 4:1 while getting 3:1.

Look at it this way, a J will fold, a 6 will likely raise you right here and it's 5.6:1 against another diamond hitting anyway because you see 4 of them and assume he has 2 as well leaving 7 outs so if he calls here anything worse than him getting 5.6:1 is good because if no D hits you bet and pick it up on the river with a medium to small bet.

The flawed thinking here may be assuming you're against a flush draw and calling your move a semi-bluff because you likely have the smaller flush-this would be a pure bluff. I don't think anyone has the 6 because there is a draw on the board and 2 opponents against the 6 - bettor would've bet more and utg+1 would've raised.

This really looks like utg has a weak J and utg+1 has the flush draw.

... anyway, sorry about the screw up and now the ramble.