Foxwoods $100 MTT - going broke in level 1 w/ TPTK

[ir0nphist]

Am I OK here? Or was this stupid? Not sure if I can get away from this.

Level 1: Blinds 25/25
Starting stacks are 2000

Villain has JUST sat down 15min late, so no read whatsoever.

From UTG+1 Villain raises to 125
I call from the Button w/ AQo, blinds fold.

Flop is Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Villain checks, I check.

When Villain checked here I figured there were 2 possibilities. He didn't like the flop (AK, TT-66), or the flop hit him well (QQ/JJ). When I checked I wanted him to bet the turn and I felt that I would be able to better determine what he had by his turn bet. If he bet large he would prolly be attacking the weakness I showed & try to take the pot. If he bet small, it would mean he was trying to make at least SOMETHING off his monster.

Well. . . the turn comes as the 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Villain bet 400 into a pot of 300. It looked like a bet that didn't want a call, since I checked behind & showed no interest on the flop. I decided here that I had the best hand, but the board was getting scary & there were a lot of river cards that I didn't want to see, so I decided to try to take the pot down right here & raised to 900. Villain pushed and at this point I only had about 850 left (villain covered me barely). I could see him making this move with TT & the oesd, or AcKc/AsKs, or KQ. Of course he could also have the monsters I mentioned before. I never really put him on AA/KK due to the 5x BB raise PF.
I begrudgingly made the call.

Results in white:
<font color="white">
Villain shows QJo &amp; the river brings no help for me. I never put him on QJo, that surprized me. </font>

Anyone else do this differently?
Anyone else fold PF here?

[mrkilla]

PF Fold is redonkulous

I think I bet this flop every time and revaluate from there.

the 9 just put the straight out there and now its double flush draw and you have none of it

there were just as many turn cards you didnt want to see

[Dan Mezick]

He makes an out-of-line UTG+1 raise with a trouble hand and lucks out on the flop. Fine. He celebrates by checking it, to let you catch up. When the 9 comes on the turn he fears KT and any 2 clubs or 2 spade holding.

So he overbets 400 into 300 (discounting possible but unlikely KT) to create incorrect price to call with any draw. He's telling you what he has. Then he backs it up allin against your raised flush-draw or str8-draw... or maybe TPTK ... he hopes. He's a loose player and ready to gamble. We know that from his preflop raise.

Its seems correct to read him for 2 pair or trips given the turn bet and the action up to that point. The preflop raise must also be considered. You can't know it is out of line.

Given all that evidence, can you call?

[ QUOTE ]
When I checked I wanted him to bet the turn and I felt that I would be able to better determine what he had by his turn bet. If he bet large he would prolly be attacking the weakness I showed &amp; try to take the pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

In other words, he would be stealing if he made an overbet.

You wanted to play your TPTK AQo and it sounds like you projected on him plausible turn-bet motives that suited your intention and purpose. You created and got what you wanted and therefore expected-- a reason to play on.

[bruce]

Call me tight, but first 15 minutes of tournament I'll let this
one pass BTF. I would like to have some idea how my opponents
play before I get involved with AQo. I probably am in the minority on this, but that's how I feel. I don't know how many times it's been previously said before, odd raises BTF
and during the course of a hand, don't mean a thing. Don't
base a hand on a preflop raise amount.

Bruce

[hyde]

[ QUOTE ]
Call me tight, but first 15 minutes of tournament I'll let this
one pass BTF. I would like to have some idea how my opponents
play before I get involved with AQo. I probably am in the minority on this, but that's how I feel. I don't know how many times it's been previously said before, odd raises BTF
and during the course of a hand, don't mean a thing. Don't
base a hand on a preflop raise amount.

Bruce

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not going so far as to fold PF, but I will call and play it straight forward post flop. I'd likely bet 3/4 or so of the pot on the flop and see if he is serious about his hand. If he is, I'm not sure I'm going to invest much more in this hand, this early.

Most likely I'd fold to a PF raise that early in the tournament. Wait for this guy to show down a hand or two, see what the heck he's raising with from UTG+1. If he proves to be a loose goose - then later in the tourney I'll re-raise preflop enough to make him fold an speculative hands.

On the flop - he checks - you bet 2/3 pot to pot. If he calls - go into check/fold mode. If he raises - you've got a decision to make - Straight draw? flush draw? Low PP and flop missed him - but he thinks you may be betting a draw? Set? (and now you will be adding an odd two pair to the list of questions)? If he pushes - you fold. FOLD. Do not go broke with TPTK on this VERY dangerous board.

[McMelchior]

[ QUOTE ]
Most likely I'd fold to a PF raise that early in the tournament.

[/ QUOTE ]
C'mon guys, this is a low buy-in live weekly tournament.

The blinds double every 20 minutes. You're are going to see a max of 25 hands before your M is down to 6. There's not going to be anybody showing down "a hand or two" here. Chances are you will not see a showdown (and a hand) until one of the players is all-in.

You can't just sit and wait to "get a sense" of the other players style. You'll be out or chanceless before you have just a sketchy idea. Folding AQ PF at this level would be giving up the tournament.

OP's mistake is not to bet the flop. This is not a Way Ahead Way Behind situation. Live players at this level are trigger happy, and you will see EP PF raises with so many hands you won't believe it. You must protect TPTK on the flop here, at the same time giving you a chance to gauge your opponents holding.

With a ton of draws out there for an aggressive player you must charge him to see the turn here. If he gives you action or if he calls and a scare turn card comes (and it does), it's still early enough to let it go and move on with most of your chips left.

Best,

McMelchior (Johan)

Why not bet the flop and try to take down the pot? If you don't bet this flop, what flop do you bet?

You're not slow-playing a monster, but you do have a good hand. Bet it.

With no flop bet, I fold the Turn after that bet.

I don't call an All in.

Guess I'm too tight. Cause, I'm not calling 5 X BB pre flop w/ AQos...

Of course I treat JJ the same as 22 pre flop, so I guess I am tight.

[McMelchior]

[ QUOTE ]
Guess I'm too tight. Cause, I'm not calling 5 X BB pre flop w/ AQos...

[/ QUOTE ]

The point is not about calling AQ PF for 5xBB. It's about calling AQ for 6% of your stack PF with big implied odds.

This is the only point in the tournament where you have anything that looks like a deep stack. Failing to play here (or in similar situations) leaves you inevitably at the mercy of forced coinflips less than 30 hands from now.

Best,

McMelchior (Johan)