2/4 KK big flop draw

[ryanghall]

Villain is 32/18/10 but that's only after 50 hands.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

SB ($388)
BB ($567.30)
UTG ($248.40)
UTG+1 ($1971.68)
UTG+2 ($748.10)
Hero ($558.10)
MP2 ($396.90)
MP3 ($866.60)
CO ($551.56)
Button ($503.58)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $2.
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $16</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to $45</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero calls $29.

Flop: ($96) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

What is hero's line now?

[xorbie]

Bet $50.

[ryanghall]

Do you think this lets off AK (no diamonds) easily? Or are you thinking that hand would raise...

As well, the reason I don't like this is that AA, no diamonds, may very well raise my bet. If they do, they may consider themselves committed to the pot when I push.

However, if I CR all-in, it's WA/WB...

What do you think?

[Raven]

I would bet about 70 $. If he raise I would go all-in most of the time, sometimes just call and open bet the turn all-in just to throw them off.

[ryanghall]

anyone else before i give results?

[Big_Jim]

I like xorbies line. Re-raise all in if he raises.

[ QUOTE ]
.. the reason I don't like this is that AA, no diamonds, may very well raise my bet. If they do, they may consider themselves committed to the pot when I push.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's not the end of the world.

Board: 8d 7d 2d
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 57.8788 % [ 00.58 00.00 ] { AsAh }
Hand 2: 42.1212 % [ 00.42 00.00 ] { KdKc }

[Woolygimp]

without reading replies jims usually right so i agree with whatever he said...

[ryanghall]

How is this line better than check-raising all-in? It has the added benefit of quite possibly folding out AA, no diamonds, as well as gaining an almost sure bet out of your opponent no matter what he's got.

Ryan

[flawless_victory]

go 4 the checkraise.

[Big_Jim]

Your problem with the line is that it prices in AA no diamond to call, but it also prices KK, QQ and JJ no diamond to call.