Stars 20+2, flop top and bottom 2pr, painful turn

[mason55]

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i do agree that it probably comes down to a question of "how good is he?" or "how much of a donk is he?". i tend to assume that people are decent and NOT donks until proven otherwise.

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I had no reads (always seems to be the problem)

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I agree with you, and I think that's what makes this foldable. If this were a $2+0.20 then I'd call in a heartbeat looking to get it in. In a $20+2 I'm starting to notice that I should assume players are decent until I see otherwise.

FWIW, I called turn. River was a nothing card, and I check/called his push. He showed the nuts (QJs). NH by him. When I bet into him it's obvious that I have at least a decent hand. He only had to call 5% of his stack to (probably) stack me.

I am starting to notice as I move up though that I need to make these folds more regularly.

However, I would not have bet 100 on the flop. You should have bet more or gone for a CR. Your hand is vulnerable to a lot of turn cards (as you have seen but any card under a 10 could have make a 2 pairs hand with an Ace).

A CR will likely kill the action but that's ok given your hand is strong but vulnerable. A flop bet of 150 or 200 will be called by few hands, A10+ (with or without 2 pairs) but should'nt be called by a drawing hand.

If you expose yourself to many hard decision in a tourney, you are going to make at least 1 costly mistake, by betting harder, you minimize the chance of having to do these decisions...

[ononimo]

the $100 bet on the flop might have been too small but i don't see how the hero could have bet much more than $200 on the flop without giving some serious reverse implied odds -- any hand that calls much more than $200 on the flop probably already has him beat and will end up stacking him.

i like a $150-$200 bet on the flop ... $250 tops.

i don't like the check-raise here because you can't be sure that anyone will in fact bet the flop and, as you mentioned, your hand is vulnerable enough that you don't want to risk a free card.

it's a rainbow flop so there's no flush draw and any straight draw is a gutshot, and with the hero offering 2.5:1 odds, it's incorrect for a gutshot to call based on expressed pot odds alone. the call from QJ is only correct if the villain believes that he can extract enough from the hero if he hits his King to make up for the fact that he's an approx 4:1 dog on the flop. unfortunately, he was correct this time.

*edited to correct villain's odds on flop (adjusted for 2 cards to come)

[Proofrock]

I haven't read the other replies yet, so hopefully I'm not repeating too much of what has already been said. I think your two pair is right at the junction between easy fold and easy push. I lean toward a fold, because I don't see any one-pair hand playing the way Villain does here. An ace either calls down or raises the flop. A worse one-pair doesn't usually bluff like this after you lead both the flop and the turn. Also, Villain puts in a pretty solid raise (raises about 2/3 the pot, and about twice the size of your bet). Given that you've shown strength by betting OOP on two streets, I think a raise from Villain needs to be taken seriously.

The lack of preflop raise from Villain suggests to me he has 55, JQ, 10/10, K10, or maybe AK, in roughly that order (55 and JQ might be switched in order, only because you have a 5 in your hand).

I fold.