Stars 20+2, flop top and bottom 2pr, painful turn

[ononimo]

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If he has me beat it's with QJ or a set of 5's.

I find a fold hard here, but may be the best option... He could easily do that with AQ or AJ, thinking that you are betting a weaker hand.

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i think AJ and AQ raise you on the flop knowing that that TPGK is a very vulnerable hand and it's best to win the pot right away rather than slowplay.

i also think AT is a very likely hand here.

I think you're ahead here more often than you think. He could easily have KQ or KT as well as AQ and AJ like you mentioned. I think folding (which is an option, I GUESS) is weak-tight.

[tedtodd]

I think you're flop was good. A bet from that position should indicate a solid hand from you...

But, if he made the straight on the turn- with no flush draw on the board- why would he raise so much. He's better off calling or just raising you to $600 if he thinks you're bluffing....tough call.

You don't have a read on him- it's early in the tourney- you have a decent stack. i may lay this one down.

[mason55]

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I call and loose.

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Why not fold and lose less? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

People are saying call but what hand range do you guys put him on? I have no problem making a call that loses if I can at least put him on a hand range that I'm ahead of long term.

Does this look solid?

Board: Ad Th 5s Kc
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 45.0498 % 44.02% 01.03% { Ac5c }
Hand 2: 54.9502 % 53.92% 01.03% { TT+, 55, ATs+, KTs, QJs, ATo+, KTo, QJo }

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I call and loose.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why not fold and lose less? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

People are saying call but what hand range do you guys put him on? I have no problem making a call that loses if I can at least put him on a hand range that I'm ahead of long term.

Does this look solid?

Board: Ad Th 5s Kc
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 45.0498 % 44.02% 01.03% { Ac5c }
Hand 2: 54.9502 % 53.92% 01.03% { TT+, 55, ATs+, KTs, QJs, ATo+, KTo, QJo }

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This seems fair, but I hate including TT+ and AK, or even AQ, because any decent player raises those hands.

I know you have to, but if you didn't, here's what you have:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 50.6245 % 49.27% 01.36% { Ac5c }
Hand 2: 49.3755 % 48.02% 01.36% { 55, AQs-A9s, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, AQo-ATo, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }

[ononimo]

[ QUOTE ]
I think you're ahead here more often than you think. He could easily have KQ or KT as well as AQ and AJ like you mentioned. I think folding (which is an option, I GUESS) is weak-tight.

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agreed, KT is possible so i withdraw my previous "easy fold" comment. i still think it's a weird way to play AQ, AJ, or KQ.

I like your range... given that it's a call and loose. You have the odds to call but are likely loosing if you don't improve...

OK, against a good player I would only expect to see 55, A10 or QJ.

AJ+ (o or s) raise PF with a decent stack.
10s+ also raise PF.

A set of 5 or top 2 pairs on the flop, would most likely call you and raise the turn. QJ, shouldn't have call your flop bet, but with pot odds (if he thinks you have a really good hand), he could call only 100 to win an all-in.

So if he is good, it's an easy fold. However, you are in the second level, there's 3 or 4 bad players per table.

A bad player plays AQ, AJ, maybe also KQ. He may bluff and just test you and fold to any raise or just check if you call.

The question is : How good is he?

Since the odds that he is good is close to 50/50, then both options are good. However, why not risk it now and cruise for a bit or start a new tourney if you are not lucky?

[ononimo]

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However, why not risk it now and cruise for a bit or start a new tourney if you are not lucky?

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i hate being a nit but i think you have to approach all these situations in a vacuum and disregard the fact that starting another tourney is an option ... you don't want to develop habits that lead to bad calls online and bad folds in live tourneys.

i do agree that it probably comes down to a question of "how good is he?" or "how much of a donk is he?". i tend to assume that people are decent and NOT donks until proven otherwise.

You are right... I would call because I am ahead more often then not.