I'm a calling station...ooohhh nice flop, what now?

[woodguy]

Party $400

Just sat down, I post behind the button in this hand.

I figure the 1st flop call is standard.

2nd is a little loose, but now I have implied odds from two maybe 3 stacks as long as UTG doesn't decide to get funky, and I can put UTG+1 squarely on QQ-AA, maybe JJ. Comments on PF actions?

Interesting flop and action, what do you suggest?


Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

Button ($398)
SB ($717.70)
BB ($70)
UTG ($347.70)
UTG+1 ($496.70)
MP1 ($426.90)]
MP2 ($370)
MP3 ($107)
Hero ($400)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $2. Hero posts a blind of $4.
UTG calls $4, UTG+1 calls $4, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises to $16</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero (poster) calls $12, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, UTG calls $12, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 raises to $55</font>, MP1 calls $39, Hero calls $39, UTG folds.

Flop: ($187) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets $125</font>, MP1 calls $125,

Hero??

Feel free to comment PF too.

Regards,
Woodguy

[beavens]

would it be too weak tight of me to want to lay this down after the reraise, or would calling for set value make sense here?

[quarkncover]

I don't mind your preflop call at all, close, but within 5/10 rule certainly.

After the flop bet UTG+1 has 320 or so in his stack left, MP1 with 250 or so. I think you'll see UTG+1 all-in on the turn more than 80-90% of the time. So your decision on the flop is heavily influenced by your turn decision. Running some quick figures on poker stove with villain's likely range I get:
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

736,848 games 0.234 secs 3,148,923 games/sec

Board: 5s 7s 4c
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 44.0753 % 42.97% 01.11% { QQ+ }
Hand 2: 19.7670 % 18.66% 01.11% { 77+, AQs+ }
Hand 3: 36.1577 % 35.67% 00.49% { 6c6s }

So do you call or push here? Personally I like pushing, avoids messy turn situations. Haven't run EV but I think pushing its highly +EV, especially if you think MP is calling.

[gergery]

Wait, I don't understand, why are there $ signs in front of your chips? How far are you from the bubble here? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Ok, I call but its close. I figure you have 6 clean outs for the straight, and 2 outs for the set for 4.6 to 1, and might have 2 more outs for a straight. You're getting 3:1 now and I don't see a big pair laying down with this much in. So high variance and lose frequently but can win some big pots.

You're 25% equity (3:1) for all your money now vs. AKs/QQ, and 38% vs. 2 big pairs for 1.6 to 1, so I think its a reasonable gamble but not hugely EV+. And you're getting 2.3 to 1 for your stack and can fold if you're really worried on the turn.

-g

[woodguy]

[ QUOTE ]
So do you call or push here? Personally I like pushing, avoids messy turn situations.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree that its push or fold.

I'm not worried about UTG if I can get all in HU with him, I'm getting the right price for the rest of his stack since I figure I have 10 outs against a big pair, so its +EV against him.

Combining him vs. MP is a lttle scarier though, if he has something like A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3 outs go into the crapper, if he has a set of 4's or 5's though I'm still in good shape, but a set of 7's makes it a lot closer.

His flat call in such a big pot on this type of flop is confusing though, what do you put MP 1 on?

Regards,
Woodguy

[ajmargarine]

I was looking for a reason for you to fold preflop. Couldn't come up with one. And I think you should call the flop bet. Looks like they both may have big pairs, and all your outs may be clean. You have 0 FE for a push, so that would not be wise.

[woodguy]

[ QUOTE ]
How far are you from the bubble here?

[/ QUOTE ]

nh.

What are you doing reading a forum that doesn't include split pots? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]


[ QUOTE ]
Ok, I call but its close. I figure you have 6 clean outs for the straight, and 2 outs for the set for 4.6 to 1, and might have 2 more outs for a straight. You're getting 3:1 now and I don't see a big pair laying down with this much in. So high variance and lose frequently but can win some big pots.

You're 25% equity (3:1) for all your money now vs. AKs/QQ, and 38% vs. 2 big pairs for 1.6 to 1, so I think its a reasonable gamble but not hugely EV+. And you're getting 2.3 to 1 for your stack and can fold if you're really worried on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

I really don't like calling here if I can clean up some of my outs with a push and get rid of MP1.

I was sure my read on UTG+1 was right.

If I push now, even with 8 clean outs I'm 2.2-1 to make it by the river, and if UTG comes along I'm getting the right price, plus some added bonus FE (maybe)

I agree that its close.

MP1's flat call really threw me here. What do you put him on?

Regards,
Woodguy

[MTBlue]

Calling for set value makes sense.

[MTBlue]

Get all the money in the middle. You'll get 2.5 to 1 on your push and your equity is better than that in every scenario except one (villains have 77 and AKs). Push makes money.

Preflop call is fine multiway pot (39 is slightly less than 10% of your stack, but you will almost certainly get a stack if you hit).

[woodguy]

[ QUOTE ]
Get all the money in the middle. You'll get 2.5 to 1 on your push and your equity is better than that in every scenario except one (villains have 77 and AKs). Push makes money.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

Button ($398)
SB ($717.70)
BB ($70)
UTG ($347.70)
<font color="#C00000">UTG+1 ($496.70)</font>
MP1 ($426.90)
MP2 ($370)
MP3 ($107)
<font color="#C00000">Hero ($400)</font>

Preflop: Hero is CO with 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $2. Hero posts a blind of $4.
UTG calls $4, UTG+1 calls $4, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises to $16</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero (poster) calls $12, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, UTG calls $12, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 raises to $55</font>, MP1 calls $39, Hero calls $39, UTG folds.

Flop: ($187) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets $125</font>, MP1 calls $125, MP1 folds.

Turn: ($437) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

River: ($437) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

Final Pot: $437

Results:
UTG+1 has Qs Qd (one pair, queens).
Hero has 6s 6c (straight, eight high).
Outcome: Hero wins $437.

Converter screwed up, I pushed, UTG+1 insta calls, MP1 dithers, then folds.

Total pot was $999.

MP1 later commented that he folded JJ, so my equity was better than I tought.

In retrospect, I'm glad I didn't call as I may have wimped out with the turn 8 being a [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], but thinking about it, if MP is on a flush draw I can't see him flat calling in that spot, but probably raises, especially if he has 2 overcards to the flop.

Regards,
Woodguy