3/6 turn steal - pretty basic question I guess.

ryanghall · #1 11-19-2005, 07:28 PM

I don't have much in the way of reads on these players. The PF raiser seems tight/okay-ish. Just because he didn't make a continuation bet, I'm not particularly worried. He could have just had a JJ-like hand (of course AA, QQ is always possible). Lots of people don't continuation bet 3-way though if the flop is bad. I'm not so sure if the other guy is decent, but I barely have any hands on him.

What I'm doing here is representing a missed flop CR. I think it's plausible to assume that I could have had an Ace and been going for this CR.

This has got to be a +EV bet in the long term, though, right? Or is it not...

Also, is the bet size good? Should I have perhaps potted it instead?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $6 BB (8 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

MP2 ($687)
CO ($231.70)
Button ($591)
SB ($544.85)
BB ($316.35)
UTG ($503.05)
Hero ($621)
MP1 ($911.60)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
1 fold, Hero calls $6, 1 fold, MP2 raises to $24, 3 folds, BB calls $18, Hero calls $18.

Flop: ($75) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, Hero checks, MP2 checks.

Turn: ($75) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $50

Morrek · #2 11-19-2005, 07:34 PM

As long as you don't put anymore money into the pot it's good imo. Be careful if you catch your set on the river and mp2 goes allin however, looks alot like QQ/AA slowplayed imo

soah · #3 11-19-2005, 07:46 PM

This is a pretty standard steal. If it works even half of the time it is profitable.

One major thing working against you though is that your limp/call preflop doesn't look much like an ace. If you're unknown to MP2 he may still give you credit, but if you're not careful you may find yourself getting looked up by better pocket pairs. I've certainly checked behind with JJ/KK on flops like that with the intention of calling (or sometimes even raising) a turn bet. I figure I'll lose a bet to Ax by betting the flop, but at least if I check I'll sometimes win an extra bet if my hand is good.

This btw is also an excellent example of how limp/calling with AK can be very profitable in EP. Now instead of just having to consider whether you've hit a set on this hand, they must also consider whether you hold AK. The wider your hand range here, the more chance they have to make a mistake.

Mercman572 · #4 11-19-2005, 07:48 PM

[ QUOTE ]

What I'm doing here is representing a missed flop CR. I think it's plausible to assume that I could have had an Ace and been going for this CR.

[/ QUOTE ]

I really don't think you're representing that. Most times when an EP player does this its with a small piece of a the board that they figure is good since it got checked through, in this case an A or Q. I think this bet figures to get called frequently (bet size is ok for a turn steal in a diffrent place though)

Mercman572 · #5 11-19-2005, 07:50 PM

[ QUOTE ]
One major thing working against you though is that your limp/call preflop doesn't look much like an ace.

[/ QUOTE ]

What conditions do you recommend doing this with? I'd imagine against thoughtful aggressive players?

soah · #6 11-19-2005, 08:00 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
One major thing working against you though is that your limp/call preflop doesn't look much like an ace.

[/ QUOTE ]

What conditions do you recommend doing this with? I'd imagine against thoughtful aggressive players?

[/ QUOTE ]

Thinking aggressive players are perhaps the worst to try it against. They are tricky and thus most likely to have checked some sort of a hand on the flop, and they are the most likely to raise you without much of a hand on the turn because they put you on exactly what you really have. Weak-tight players would certainly be the best, because they have little interest in picking off bluffs with marginal hands and will not spend much time thinking about what you have.

This of course is assuming that they don't know much about you. If a thinking aggressive player has seen you limp/call preflop with AK, and if you know he gets out of line a bit with his preflop raises, you probably have a pretty decent shot at picking up the pot on the turn.

ryanghall · #7 11-19-2005, 08:02 PM

I haven't really played much with either of them, so they certainly don't know a lot about me.

If they view me as anything, it should be tight.

Ryan

Mercman572 · #8 11-19-2005, 08:30 PM

[ QUOTE ]

Thinking aggressive players are perhaps the worst to try it against. They are tricky and thus most likely to have checked some sort of a hand on the flop, and they are the most likely to raise you without much of a hand on the turn because they put you on exactly what you really have.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't really understand. I would think that being raised by a LAG when you've shown weakness but are actually strong is a good thing. I meant thinking lags in the respect that you can expect them to raise behind you when limped topreflop, but would equate your raise in EP with a legitimate hand and be less likely to pay you off with a weaker ace or king if you raise PF. Wouldn't you want to do this against a LAG because they are likely to raise you when you are strong and essentially bet your hand for you?

soah · #9 11-19-2005, 08:40 PM

I have no idea what you're arguing. No, I certainly do not want to be raised when I'm betting a pair of threes on a board featuring four overcards.

benwood · #10 11-19-2005, 08:45 PM

The pre-flop raise is much too large to call into a 3 way pot with pocket treys,imo.

This is a good bet on the turn. I think you will pick up the pot about 2/3 of the time. The bet size is good, too. This size bet looks less like a bluff than a pot sized bet.