6 max hand - 55 - Page 2

Stealthy · #11 11-10-2005, 07:47 AM

Well I only play $1 $2 6 Max at the moment on Party so this is my game and I'll chip in.

Pre-flop I can't do this, you are probably right and I am probably wrong but I will always limp this.

Flop - The fact that we raised and now have a very friendly board and the chance to get this heads up with a guy who will bet with air makes raising the only correct move. However ........... a lot of these Party games will see the 2 left to act wanting to see the turn at least. If I have 2 of those in my game I might even fold here. But if I had just 1 likely cold-caller I will raise.

Turn - Yep had to be.

River - I actually really like this river bet. I don't agree that vilain is on a draw he could have anything or nothing with those stats and nothing has happened to indicate he might have a heart at all. I would value bet this.

Players with VP$IP of 80% typically want to see a showdown even when their hand has no prospects whatsoever. The session I just finished had the same type of guy in it and see what he shows down will tell you what I mean.

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
Hero raises, MP calls, 1 fold, Button calls, 1 fold, BB calls.

Flop: (8.50 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB bets, Hero raises, MP calls, Button folds, BB calls.

Turn: (7.25 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, MP calls, BB calls.

River: (10.25 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, MP calls, BB calls.

Final Pot: 13.25 BB

Results in white below: 
BB has 6d Tc (two pair, sixes and fours).
Hero has Qs Kd (two pair, queens and fours).
MP has 6h Ah (two pair, sixes and fours).
Outcome: Hero wins 13.25 BB. 

So BB led the flop with fresh air and still felt that he could call it down from there. He had very similar stats to DMBFan23's guy. The MP cold call with a bare Ace was also typical.

Me like the small flush value bet on the end!! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

kapw7 · #12 11-10-2005, 09:22 AM

Abour river play.

Why would you pay for more info? You have enough info on him already. He is a loose calling station and he is not tricky so why would you want to pay to see his hand?

We made a strong hand and there are plenty of worse hands that will call here.

car ramrod · #13 11-10-2005, 10:40 AM

I like the flop a lot, protect your hand, try to get heads up with utg. He could have a wide range here. Protect from over cards.

The turn is close, I think I like a check behind here with outs. If he has a higher pair we have plenty of outs to improve, and I don't think this guy is folding a pair.

The river, I like a bet here. I think there is value, as he will likely call with no [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].

I wish you wouldn't have said you hand was good, I would like to hear thoughts about the river bet minus results.(and to see if I would have said value bet) [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

pokerbo · #14 11-10-2005, 12:01 PM

Good Job! I guess his hand range was A8, K8, Q8, J8

#15 11-10-2005, 12:26 PM

I would probably take the free SD. Same otherwise the way you describe UTG.

Aaron W. · #16 11-10-2005, 12:34 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Why would you pay for more info? You have enough info on him already. He is a loose calling station and he is not tricky so why would you want to pay to see his hand?

[/ QUOTE ]

That's not what OP said:

[ QUOTE ]
UTG is VERY loose. VERY. like 80% VP$IP. no precise convergence of PT stats but this guy is a limping MACHINE. aggro factor of like 1, so he will definitely bet. no specific read on how he handles draws versus small pairs versus monsters etc.

[/ QUOTE ]

All we know is that he's very loose preflop. But since most mistakes (and the most expensive mistakes) are made postflop, I would like to learn more about his postflop play. By checking behind, I get a small glimpse into his postflop play. If you know how villain thinks, you can do very well against him.

[ QUOTE ]
We made a strong hand and there are plenty of worse hands that will call here.

[/ QUOTE ]

We made a decent hand. I don't consider a one-card 5-high flush a strong hand. There might be plenty of worse hands that will call, but it's unclear based on OP's read. There are also better hands that will call, and even better hands that will check-raise. As I said, you probably make a small amount of money with a bet, but I don't think it's very much in the long run.

DMBFan23 · #17 11-10-2005, 12:44 PM

so I think the turn is rightfully getting a lot of comments, honestly at the time I was thinking "man if you were a LAG I'd check but I'm free to bet since I know you'll just call and then if I feel the need to check somewhere it can be the river". let's see if there's anything behind it.

if I have his range pegged as A3-Q3, A4-Q4, 33-77, A8-78, XhYh, 56/57/67, or AhX/KhX/QhX/random overcards (discounted)

he'll call with the 3's and 4's. I am ahead, but he has anywhere between 3 outs (when he has X4, not hearts) and 13 outs (when he has X3 with a higher heart than mine as his kicker. he likely won't raise me with any of these, so betting the turn is better than checking. how much I gain on a turn bet will depend on his range of course.

[ QUOTE ]

A3o, K3o, Q3o: 27 combos. 9 of them will have a high heart, and those combos will have 13 outs the other 18 combos will have 3 outs.

A4o, K4o, Q4o: 27 combos. 9 of them will have a high heart, and those combos will have 13 outs. 9 of them will have the 4h, and those will have 4 outs. the other 9 combos will have 3 outs.

As3s, Ad3d, Ac3c, As4s, Ad4d, Ac4c - 6 Combos, 3 outs
Ks3s, Kd3d, Kc3c, Ks4s, Kd4d, Kc4c - 6 Combos, 3 outs
Qs3s, Qd3d, Qc3c, Qs4s, Qd4d, Qc4c - 6 Combos, 3 outs

[/ QUOTE ]

On average here X3/X4 has 72 combos, and he has 6.5 outs, and I gain 0.83 BB with a turn bet

he'll call with 55 but I'm freerolling with 15 outs. 1 combo. I gain 0.33 BB here

he'll call or maybe raise me with 9 total set combos of 66/33/44 and I have 15 outs. let's say as a guesstimate that he check raises me 10% of the time here with a set. he might call because of the flush or he might be waiting for the river. doubtful, but we can adjust this percentage parametrically when we have the EV equation. I was planning to muck to a turn CR here, so his turn CR will buy him roughly 33% of what is in the pot + my turn bet (the equity I give up by folding). I lose 0.66 BB when he calls and (0.33 * 7.5 BB) when he raises. so when I bet against these 9 combos I lose .9 * (0.66) + .1 * (2.475) = 0.84 BB

he'll call with 77, and I am behind with 15 outs if he does not have a heart or 6 outs if he does have one. 6 combos, 3 of them heave a heart. I have an average of 10.5 outs and I lose 0.78 BB

assume he'll call or CR me with X[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Y [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], to which I am drawing dead. doesn't matter here whether he calls or CRs, I lose 1 BB. let's say he can have:
Ah2h - Ah 9h (he has a 10% PFR so I think he will raise ATh+ UTG)
Kh2h - Kh Jh
Qh2h - Qh Jh
Jh7h - Jh Th
Th9h

the other combos he would limp with (6h5h, 8h7h, etc) seem to have board cards making them impossible. someone let me know if I left out some suited hands here. anyways, 20 combos, -1BB

A8-98: he'll call with these, 63 combos, 21 of them have a higher heart. I have 17 outs against the non-heart ones (6 straight cards, 9 flush cards, 2 fives) and 8 outs against the heart combos. so looks like I have 14.4 outs on average, so I lose 0.69 BB here with a bet.
87: 12 combos, 4 of them have the 7h. I have 2 fives and 5 straight cards against the heart versions, and 2 fives, 5 straight cards, and 9 flush cards against the 7h versions. I lose 0.72 BB with a bet here since I have 12.87 outs on average.

I'm a little too lazy to do the random overcards with a heart calculations, but I would gain on that bet if he indeed could have that combo. I will assume though that he does not bet the flop with it, so I'll throw it out.

Anyways, there are 183 combos of hands here. [72/183 * (0.83)] + [1/183 * (0.33)] - [9/183 * (0.84)] - [6/183 * (0.78)] - [20/183 * (-1)] - [63/183 * (0.69)] - [12/183 * (-0.72)] = -0.13 BB.

Yep, bad turn bet in isolation. I tried adjusting the ranges to compensate for him maybe having fewer hands with hearts (based on combinations or the % of time he bets the flop, you could adjust the percentage, this is all fairly easy to do in Excel actually compared to the utility it provides) but even if he NEVER check raises me with a set and NEVER has hearts, the EV of the bet is still -0.01 BB.

EDIT: crap I forgot the 56/67/57 hands. oh well I will be drawing against those anyway, so that will make the bet even more -EV.

MrWookie47 · #18 11-10-2005, 01:37 PM

First off, excellent analysis. Truly first class. I have a few nits to pick, however.

One, I think that with an 80% VPIP, J3 and J4 are in his range as well, mitigating the -EV of the turn bet. I'm even tempted to include a discounted T3 and T4 against this guy. 54 should probably be in there, too. 64, 63, and 53 are probably a hair loose, though.

Two, you say you lose 1 BB when he c/r's you with a flush. Are you saying you'll fold your OESD and crappy flush draw to any turn c/r? I don't see it. With the chance he's c/r'ing me w/ two pair or a set, I think I'd end up losing 2.X BB, where X is the probability I hit something I want to call a river bet with.

Last is the question of if we can throw out any hands because he didn't 3bet the flop. I think that hurts the case for A8, as well as the case for a set. Seeing a b/c, c/r line with a set from a donk is quite unusual. You tend to see c/c, c/r or b/3b, b with those sorts of hands.

While I haven't worked it out, I don't think that the combined total of these things will combine enough to make a turn bet +EV except in the extreme cases you describe, but they're still worth considering.

gharp · #19 11-10-2005, 01:43 PM

First, nice analysis. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Second, I would've bet the turn too, as long as folding to a raise is part of the plan. It's a sort of twist on the "check with outs" thing since, in this case, your outs are so dirty. If we assume he's passive post-flop, it's an even easier fold. I guess the EV numbers tell us not too make the bet, but I'll bet we could weight those numbers around to tell us to do it if we wanted to -- it's pretty close to 0 as is.

Since you bet the turn and he called, that river bet looks pretty thin. Everyone else has already mentioned that though.

gharp · #20 11-10-2005, 01:55 PM

[ QUOTE ]

One, I think that with an 80% VPIP, J3 and J4 are in his range as well, mitigating the -EV of the turn bet. I'm even tempted to include a discounted T3 and T4 against this guy. 54 should probably be in there, too. 64, 63, and 53 are probably a hair loose, though.

[/ QUOTE ]
I agree with you that all those hands should be in Mr. 80 VP$IP's range. And if you're going to include weighted down overcards with [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]s (which DMBFan didn't), I think you could also include gutshots. These would tip us a bit more to +EV too.

[ QUOTE ]
Two, you say you lose 1 BB when he c/r's you with a flush. Are you saying you'll fold your OESD and crappy flush draw to any turn c/r? I don't see it. With the chance he's c/r'ing me w/ two pair or a set, I think I'd end up losing 2.X BB, where X is the probability I hit something I want to call a river bet with.

[/ QUOTE ]
I think if you can't fold to a raise here then you shouldn't bet. I went back and forth on this as I was thinking about it so I'm willing to admit I'm wrong, but I just feel like it's more likely he's springing to life here with a flush than 2 pr or a set.

I dunno -- the more I look at it I think I'm assuming he's passive because he's loose, which is definitely not the right thing to do...