KK UTG

[TheHip41]

Poker Room 5-10 Full Table

Lone villian is 18.7/11/2.5 over 100 or so hands. He's a decent to good player


Hip has K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] UTG


Hip raises, 8 folds, BB 3-bets, Hip caps, BB calls


Flop (HU) 8.5sb

A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]


BB checks, Hip checks


Turn (HU) 4BB


3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

BB bets, Hip calls


River (HU) 6BB

4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

BB bets, Hips calls


How's this look [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[Duffman]

I'd fold the turn.

Given your read I can't put villain on any hand that you're ahead of.

EDIT: I thought villain capped. KQs and JJ are possible, so calling down is ok.

How often do you need to be good to make it +ev?

[Alex/Mugaaz]

I fold the turn.

[TheHip41]

[ QUOTE ]
I fold the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

Aren't I going to get run over at 5-10 just folding KK heads up like that?

[Alex/Mugaaz]

Stop worrying about stuff like this. You have the opponents stats. You know his hand range. You know the right play. Don't worry about getting run over in tight full ring games.

[Nick C]

Hmm. It costs us 2 BBs to see a showdown, and we're getting 6:2 overall on our turn and river calls.

We're probably losing, though.

AK = 6 combos
AQ = 9 combos
AA = 3 combos
QQ = 3 combos

KK = 1 combo

JJ = 6 combos
TT = 6 combos

That seems good enough, but the range is just a guess. In fact, Villain's range could be wider, especially since he knew the pot would be heads-up. But a wider range could help or hurt you, depending on how Villain extends that range.

Some other thoughts:

Once Villain bets the river, I'm not very optimistic. But you are getting 7:1 at that point.

Your flop check (which I think is okay) smells like a trap. But Villain might (correctly, in this case) interpret it as weakness instead, so it's hard to know what we should make of his turn lead.

[Alex/Mugaaz]

TT cap is almost impossible, JJ is fairly unlikely.

[Nick C]

[ QUOTE ]
TT cap is almost impossible, JJ is fairly unlikely.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hero capped, not BB.

I don't know Poker Room 5/10. But if the range I provided is too narrow and we should eliminate TT, then we should probably get rid of AQ as well.

So, then:

AK = 6 combos
AA = 3 combos
QQ = 3 combos

KK = 1 combo

JJ = 6 combos

[toss]

Wasn't there a observed 100/200 hand just like this posted a couple weeks ago? I think everyone felt the flop check was a mistake.

Edit: Maybe Not

[The Goober]

[ QUOTE ]
TT cap is almost impossible, JJ is fairly unlikely.

[/ QUOTE ]
Villain only 3-bet - it was hero that capped.

IMO, folding to the turn bet after checking the flop is really weak. Without a strong read on BB, I think he could be 3-betting lots of hands here, like medium PPs. If he doesn't smell a rat with your flop check, then he'll value-bet his TT or whatever.

Actually, after thinking about it a little bit, I think I like a turn raise. This play emulates a monster enough so that a thinking villain might fold an A, and if he doesn't, we can take a free showdown.