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| View Poll Results: CHOOSE YOUR OWN ADVENTURE | |||
| CALL (and then brag or complain afterwards) |
   
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13 | 18.84% |
| FOLD (and then have yet another restless night of sleep) |
  
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56 | 81.16% |
| Voters: 69. You may not vote on this poll | |||
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#21
10-26-2005, 01:11 PM
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Re: $33 Poll: 8 Left; 15/30 Blinds
What is your general gameplan?
How many tables do you have running? Are you able to get away from the hand if you need to? Are you comfortable with playing short stacked here often if your "outplaying" fails? So many factors go into play, and you seem to be only focused on 1. "What does my opponent have". [ QUOTE ] This hand is more about what the villian has than what you do. [/ QUOTE ] Tell me why.. BTW... I am not trying to be an ass. I am animated today. Trying to make you think is all, and unlock all the possibilities. That is what you want after all isnt it? 
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#22
10-26-2005, 01:16 PM
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Re: $33 Poll: 8 Left; 15/30 Blinds
To me...it is not worth the risk at this point in the tourney...and people play crazy at the 33s. I have seen people calling a push here with a 2 or even an AJ.
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#23
10-26-2005, 01:23 PM
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Re: $33 Poll: 8 Left; 15/30 Blinds
[ QUOTE ]
What is your general gameplan? How many tables do you have running? Are you able to get away from the hand if you need to? Are you comfortable with playing short stacked here often if your "outplaying" fails? So many factors go into play, and you seem to be only focused on 1. "What does my opponent have". BTW... I am not trying to be an ass. I am animated today. Trying to make you think is all, and unlock all the possibilities. That is what you want after all isnt it? [/ QUOTE ] I appreciate the questions, SS. General gameplan: win money? Do you mean for the hand, or for the SNG? Tables: 4 usually. For this spot, I don't think it matters, as I think this is a raise when you don't have a read. Able to get away: Absolutely. If I raise and opponent calls/raises, it's usually check fold to the river unless a Q or K falls, at which point it depends on my opponents course of action. I'm always comfortable to play short stacked, and in this case a raise to 200 will get a bluff away, so I'd still have 600+ chips (more than 10 BB until 50/100). I have been focused on what my opponent has in this thread; I think mostly to compensate for people that are thinking about it *only* in terms of what hero holds. These other questions you raised are necessary, and I still think a raise is correct. [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] This hand is more about what the villian has than what you do. [/ QUOTE ] Tell me why.. [/ QUOTE ] Because the bet by the villian is so unnatural. I think recognizing spots like this is important, and not often discussed in the STT forum. I know that STTs are profitable when pushbotting, but they're even more profitable when you kind find spots to win pots regardless (you like that, scuba? no "ir" prefix...) of what your hand is. >>ZIPPPY
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#24
10-26-2005, 01:24 PM
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Re: $33 Poll: 8 Left; 15/30 Blinds
[ QUOTE ]
To me...it is not worth the risk at this point in the tourney...and people play crazy at the 33s. I have seen people calling a push here with a 2 or even an AJ. [/ QUOTE ] yes, but then again a push after the raise looks like a bluff, too.
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#25
10-26-2005, 01:26 PM
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Re: $33 Poll: 8 Left; 15/30 Blinds
[ QUOTE ]
I agree with you. what if, however, you amended that last statement to say: "the earlier the level or position, the stronger my hand needs to be, or the weaker my opponents needs to be". I think this would be +ev. I'm not saying pull off bluffs all the time, but this hand is a strong spot to pick up a pot, in my opinion. [/ QUOTE ] You amending of the statement is good. I like this move on level 4 or 5 when we are 5 or 6 handed...but i dont change gears and make this move this early on. it is just something i wont do, similar to i wont push all my chips in on a coinflip early on...just something i avoid. so, because of my tight style early on, the thought of playing this hand never enters my mind... if you are going to play it, i think a raise would be necessary. Villian bet into you for 60, how much would you raise? Whats your move if he doesnt fold and pushes over the top?
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#26
10-26-2005, 01:29 PM
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Re: $33 Poll: 8 Left; 15/30 Blinds
[ QUOTE ]
I believe not raising is playing post flop incorrectly. [/ QUOTE ] This is so unbeliveably wrong. You're trying to be fancy. You do not need to be fancy. I'm willing to guess that if you played made hands strongly, and played the bubble very well, and left out all the crap like "raising the flop with K-high" out of your game, you would be a very consistent winner. Why would I assume that? Because it's what I do. Even if bluffing was important. You ask "how often does he have an 8." I ask you. "How often is the BB (who can have any two here), bet out the 2/3 the pot with 2 players left to act on a pure bluff." I can just about guarantee you the answer to your question is a higher percentage than the answer to my question.
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#27
10-26-2005, 01:35 PM
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Re: $33 Poll: 8 Left; 15/30 Blinds
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I believe not raising is playing post flop incorrectly. [/ QUOTE ] This is so unbeliveably wrong. You're trying to be fancy. You do not need to be fancy. I'm willing to guess that if you played made hands strongly, and played the bubble very well, and left out all the crap like "raising the flop with K-high" out of your game, you would be a very consistent winner. Why would I assume that? Because it's what I do. Even if bluffing was important. You ask "how often does he have an 8." I ask you. "How often is the BB (who can have any two here), bet out the 2/3 the pot with 2 players left to act on a pure bluff." I can just about guarantee you the answer to your question is a higher percentage than the answer to my question. [/ QUOTE ] I agree with this. You said who would bet out with an 8? Well, who would raise with an 8? I think most would slow play and call ->check/raise turn. So your raise may equally be taken for a bluff.
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#29
10-26-2005, 01:59 PM
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Re: $33 Poll: 8 Left; 15/30 Blinds
[ QUOTE ]
This is so unbeliveably wrong. You're trying to be fancy. You do not need to be fancy. I'm willing to guess that if you played made hands strongly, and played the bubble very well, and left out all the crap like "raising the flop with K-high" out of your game, you would be a very consistent winner. Why would I assume that? Because it's what I do. [/ QUOTE ] I don't think this is fancy. I'm betting at my opponents weakness, which is similar to betting due to my strength. I don't doubt that you are a consistant winner. So am I. However, you can't look at every situation and say, "I don't play it that way, and I'm a consistant winner, so it's wrong". If you do this, you'll never learn or think of other ways to play hands. And if you aren't the greatest player in the world (re: stanzee), then you have something to learn, and there may be ways to play some hands more profitably. You may be right about this hand, but cut out the crap about "I'm a winning player so do it the way I do". Just give your reasons; if they're good enough, they'll stand on their own. [ QUOTE ] Even if bluffing was important. You ask "how often does he have an 8." I ask you. "How often is the BB (who can have any two here), bet out the 2/3 the pot with 2 players left to act on a pure bluff." I can just about guarantee you the answer to your question is a higher percentage than the answer to my question. [/ QUOTE ] This is a good point. The fact that there are two players left when he bets should be a red flag that he's less likely to be purely bluffing. Basically, (assuming you go into check/fold mode) if you raise to 200 (which is usually enough to chase bluffs out) you need to win here 6 times out of 10. In my experience I take down the pot here at a higher frequency.
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#30
10-26-2005, 02:00 PM
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Re: $33 Poll: 8 Left; 15/30 Blinds
[ QUOTE ]
General gameplan: win money? Do you mean for the hand, or for the SNG? [/ QUOTE ] The SnG what is your basic gameplan... The general strategy for a SnG is tight early then pushbot late. Is this your gameplan? You need to think of how a hand like this will affect the rest of your game(plan). If you play this hand this way... where do you draw the line? I think you are better off waiting for a better position and making this move with any 2 then from mid position KQs. You need to draw a line on what is FPS and what is good solid play. Once you draw that line you can start playing better post flop. Are you always going to try to outplay everyone on every flop? There is a lot of merit to doing this, BUT (and this is a big but)Playing like this causes chain reactions that you have to be ready to deal with. This hand can not be serarated from the rest of the tournament. [ QUOTE ] Able to get away: Absolutely. If I raise and opponent calls/raises, it's usually check fold to the river unless a Q or K falls, at which point it depends on my opponents course of action. [/ QUOTE ] Lets say you raise his bet to 200 (140 back to him)as you mentioned. He cold calls you and the turn is a Q. He checks.... action? the pot is 490 now. What if he bets 200 into the pot on the turn instead of checking? [ QUOTE ] Because the bet by the villian is so unnatural. [/ QUOTE ] Betting a paired rag board from the BB on a limped preflop is extremely natural for lots of players both stupid and smart reguardless of what they hold. You have no idea what category the BB is in. You can make some guesses, but he is now reresenting the 8 and you let him in preflop cheaply... Do you see how your limp preflop has changed your situation post flop tremendously. Bottom line.... This spot can be +Chip EV in many ways, but has a lot of problems that come along with it. Your ability to change this into a + $ EV as well is up for a lot of discussion. I too think that there are a lot of chips that CAN be gained early. I dont think that this is one of them. Your position is bad You have shown no strength preflop You have no draw You have no reads You want to look for a situation that you are in control more. All you are doing is FPS here if you look at this hand as a single entity. If I were not guilty of this myself, I wouldnt feel so strongly about it. There are ways to make this hand + EV, but it is more involved then what is being discussed here imo.
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