How far do I go on the turn?

[TheHammer24]

Why is Villian going crazy with only K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]?

You have the nuts. Villian goes crazy with AA and KJ, but he may have 9 combinations of KJ only 1 hurts you! Plus consider the 6 combos of AA and 6 combos of QQ. Granted he won't go all in with QQ, but seeing as he is agressive player he may make it to seven with AA. KJ does not mean K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J:Spade: and who caps with KJs anyway?! This is an easy 9+ bet.

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If we allow Villain KJ, AA, QQ, we seem to have over 65% equity.

8x KJ --> 50%
1x KJ flush --> 31%
12x AA/QQ --> 78.3%

8/21= 38.10%
1/21= 4.76%
12/21= 57.14%

(0.381*0.5)+(0.0476*0.381)+(0.5714*0.783)=0.0656

That assumes that KJo is equally likely to AA and QQ after the pf action, which is doubtful at best.

I think you're almost certainly up against AA or QQ, with AA being more likely... in which case you have far more than enough equity to go all in.

However, it's got to twig at some point that you're not afraid of top set... so if he's willing to go that deep into his stack we have to start worrying about an unlikely KJ of flush at some point despite the pf cap. I want to go all in, but the process of getting there will likely make me not want to be there.

In practice, I think it takes a while for Villain to give us credit for KJ if he really thinks we're solid and that we think he's also solid. KJs is not a likely button 3-bet vs an UTG raise from a good player. We probably collect at least a few more bets out of him, and even more if he's "aggressive". He might cap KJs pf if we've been routinely 3-betting him very light with position, but I can't imagine going light enough that KJs matches up favourably unless he thinks we're weak tight enough post flop that he'll routinely be able to push us off a better hand.

I'm inclined to go pretty deep into his stack, but I doubt he puts another 20 BB in with only top set. I think I stop somewhere around 7 or 9 depending on how aggressive he is (though I voted for all in before I thought about the practicalities of actually getting all in in LHE given our stack sizes -- I've never played seriously without a cap).

Edit: as expected, I screwed up the math. Oh well... doesn't much matter and I'm too lazy to change it. At least the error is in our favour (undercounting AA/QQ combos).

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Yes, but all those numbers go out the window. Once I 5-bet the turn, and Villian 6-bets, and I 7-bet, and Villain 8-bets, I know I'm done. He doesn't go 8 bets with AsQs, QQ, or even AA. He has exactly KJ alot here. And if he's a good player, he wouldn't go 8 bets, without 1 of these three hands

K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Jx

Kx J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

At the point you get 8 bet, you are getting freerolled 1/3 of the time, and chopping 2/3 of the time. I see no value in raising or betting anymore on the turn. If the river is a non spade, non pairing card, then go all in, you have nothing to lose at that point.


In this hand, I was UTG, and the villian. I posted this from my friends point of view, Westley878, to get a response to his line. He 5 bet me and 7 bet me because he didn't think I'd cap PF with KJ. Once I 8 bet him, he knew what I had. The river was a [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

and Wes cried [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

anyone that pushes all in on the turn vs. a good opponent doesn't get it. If you are playing a complete donkey, then I might go all in.

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The moment I realized that THEHIP41 had KJ I stopped all raising and just called down becuz of the possibility of KsJs. I must admit becuz THEHIP41 capped out of position preflop my read was thrown off on the turn and I think it took me an extra raise before I was positive he had the nuts also, then I just called, the river brought the 3rd spade and I made the crying call and he had KsJs, and my stomach ached for about 20 minutes. If I had played the hand perfectly I wouldve just called when THEHIP41 six bet the turn, instead I raised one more time and called when he eight bet it.

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KJs is not a likely button 3-bet vs an UTG raise from a good player.

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I thought the same, but it's 4 handed.

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I was the one who 3 bet on the button with KdJd, I felt this was the correct play becuz the villian(thehip41) had been open raising very light even for a 4 handed game. With position I wouldve also 3 bet the villain with a hand like JTs or 55, and both these hands are much more debatable than KJs.

[Shillx]

There is one hand in the deck that you are worried about and there are 1035 total hands. If every raise represents the top 40% of all possible hands, you should go 7 bets here. Of course he will keep raising with K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], but it does you no good to goto war with that hand since it will be a chop chop. I feel like the other player is slightly more retarded then I predict, so I would go 9 bets if this were the last round of betting (but there was still another card to come).

Your best play here might be to slowdown now and then go crazy on a blank river. If he thinks his QQ or AA or whatever is good now, he won't change his mind when the 3 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] hits.

Brad

I edited as to not make Tehox look like a fool. Going 11 bets is obviously stupid since it can get 12 bet. If he was all in at 11 bets, I would think about it.

Edit to say that you should just 5 bet since you can't afford to have it goto 8 bets should you 7 bet. Ahhh trying to do too much at once.

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I feel like the other player is slightly more retarded then I predict, so I would go either 9 or 11 bets
Brad

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OP:
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In this hand, I was UTG, and the villian.

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[img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[JJNJustin]

Derek- I would push this as far as you think this guy would go without having the nuts. It all boils down to whether he is a good player or whether he is overaggressive LAG sucker. If he is the former, I would probably just call. If it could possibly be the later, I would keep raising.

-J

[TheHip41]

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I feel like the other player is slightly more retarded then I predict, so I would go either 9 or 11 bets
Brad

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OP:
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In this hand, I was UTG, and the villian.

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[img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

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I am really aggessive 4 handed, and really stupid. Even I wouldn't 7 bet Wes with AA on this board. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

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I feel like the other player is slightly more retarded then I predict, so I would go either 9 or 11 bets
Brad

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OP:
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In this hand, I was UTG, and the villian.

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[img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

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I am really aggessive 4 handed, and really stupid. Even I wouldn't 7 bet Wes with AA on this board. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

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This was a very nice thread. I lurk on the Mid/High forum and mike l. recenty posted a hand that when he first started playing (i think) he had an ace on a kqj10 two diamond board, and basically went all in for like 20 bets. The other guy had A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and rivered a flush. So I think it's a very important concept especially when playing against good players.