How far do I go on the turn?

[Entity]

It's good to see that 54% of this forum (as of this post) can't do math.

Rob

[Petteri]

This problem is easy for anyone who has played Omaha. In Omaha free-rolling is common.

In holdem this sort of situations are almost non-existent.

[Greg J]

To the people (majority) choosing all in, you do realize that KJ[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] is taking yr money (theoretically), right?

I don't go beyond 7 bets (which I chose) unless I have villian as a stone cold psychopath.

[jskills]

I think the idea is that villan has KJ [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] so we're splitting at best and filling the pot for no reason to lose to a flush.

So I think we can call 5-bet and call or just call to see the river. On a safe river (non [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] / non-pairing the board), it's fine to get jiggy.

[detruncate]

If we allow Villain KJ, AA, QQ, we seem to have over 65% equity.

8x KJ --> 50%
1x KJ flush --> 31%
12x AA/QQ --> 78.3%

8/21= 38.10%
1/21= 4.76%
12/21= 57.14%

(0.381*0.5)+(0.0476*0.381)+(0.5714*0.783)=0.0656

That assumes that KJo is equally likely to AA and QQ after the pf action, which is doubtful at best.

I think you're almost certainly up against AA or QQ, with AA being more likely... in which case you have far more than enough equity to go all in.

However, it's got to twig at some point that you're not afraid of top set... so if he's willing to go that deep into his stack we have to start worrying about an unlikely KJ of flush at some point despite the pf cap. I want to go all in, but the process of getting there will likely make me not want to be there.

In practice, I think it takes a while for Villain to give us credit for KJ if he really thinks we're solid and that we think he's also solid. KJs is not a likely button 3-bet vs an UTG raise from a good player. We probably collect at least a few more bets out of him, and even more if he's "aggressive". He might cap KJs pf if we've been routinely 3-betting him very light with position, but I can't imagine going light enough that KJs matches up favourably unless he thinks we're weak tight enough post flop that he'll routinely be able to push us off a better hand.

I'm inclined to go pretty deep into his stack, but I doubt he puts another 20 BB in with only top set. I think I stop somewhere around 7 or 9 depending on how aggressive he is (though I voted for all in before I thought about the practicalities of actually getting all in in LHE given our stack sizes -- I've never played seriously without a cap).

Edit: as expected, I screwed up the math. Oh well... doesn't much matter and I'm too lazy to change it. At least the error is in our favour (undercounting AA/QQ combos).

[ QUOTE ]
KJs is not a likely button 3-bet vs an UTG raise from a good player.

[/ QUOTE ]

I thought the same, but it's 4 handed.

[detruncate]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
KJs is not a likely button 3-bet vs an UTG raise from a good player.

[/ QUOTE ]

I thought the same, but it's 4 handed.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nice. All kinds of mistakes today. Missed that bit and didn't give the pf action much thought not being in HUSH.

I revise down to 5-7 bets I guess, though the potentially increased aggression level of a very short game might work in our favour if Villain is already on the aggressive side.

[ QUOTE ]
If we allow Villain KJ, AA, QQ, we seem to have over 65% equity.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is nice and all, but Bayes Theorem is at work here. Thinking about hand distribution is fine when you're in the ordinary range of betting, but when it goes 5+ bets, you need to start thinking that he has a nut hand is freerolling. Its like holding the Ace-high flush or quads... at some point you start looking for the str8 flush.

[hobbsmann]

[ QUOTE ]
The only hand you don't have a huge edge against is exactly KJ [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], but given he capped preflop a set is much more likely IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

I also missed that this was 4 handed, this changes everything. pf 3-bet is good, and I now change my answer to 5 bets on the turn and then go nutso on a non spade/board pairing river.

[TheHip41]

[ QUOTE ]
If we allow Villain KJ, AA, QQ, we seem to have over 65% equity.

8x KJ --> 50%
1x KJ flush --> 31%
12x AA/QQ --> 78.3%

8/21= 38.10%
1/21= 4.76%
12/21= 57.14%

(0.381*0.5)+(0.0476*0.381)+(0.5714*0.783)=0.0656

That assumes that KJo is equally likely to AA and QQ after the pf action, which is doubtful at best.

I think you're almost certainly up against AA or QQ, with AA being more likely... in which case you have far more than enough equity to go all in.

However, it's got to twig at some point that you're not afraid of top set... so if he's willing to go that deep into his stack we have to start worrying about an unlikely KJ of flush at some point despite the pf cap. I want to go all in, but the process of getting there will likely make me not want to be there.

In practice, I think it takes a while for Villain to give us credit for KJ if he really thinks we're solid and that we think he's also solid. KJs is not a likely button 3-bet vs an UTG raise from a good player. We probably collect at least a few more bets out of him, and even more if he's "aggressive". He might cap KJs pf if we've been routinely 3-betting him very light with position, but I can't imagine going light enough that KJs matches up favourably unless he thinks we're weak tight enough post flop that he'll routinely be able to push us off a better hand.

I'm inclined to go pretty deep into his stack, but I doubt he puts another 20 BB in with only top set. I think I stop somewhere around 7 or 9 depending on how aggressive he is (though I voted for all in before I thought about the practicalities of actually getting all in in LHE given our stack sizes -- I've never played seriously without a cap).

Edit: as expected, I screwed up the math. Oh well... doesn't much matter and I'm too lazy to change it. At least the error is in our favour (undercounting AA/QQ combos).

[/ QUOTE ]


Yes, but all those numbers go out the window. Once I 5-bet the turn, and Villian 6-bets, and I 7-bet, and Villain 8-bets, I know I'm done. He doesn't go 8 bets with AsQs, QQ, or even AA. He has exactly KJ alot here. And if he's a good player, he wouldn't go 8 bets, without 1 of these three hands

K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Jx

Kx J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

At the point you get 8 bet, you are getting freerolled 1/3 of the time, and chopping 2/3 of the time. I see no value in raising or betting anymore on the turn. If the river is a non spade, non pairing card, then go all in, you have nothing to lose at that point.


In this hand, I was UTG, and the villian. I posted this from my friends point of view, Westley878, to get a response to his line. He 5 bet me and 7 bet me because he didn't think I'd cap PF with KJ. Once I 8 bet him, he knew what I had. The river was a [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

and Wes cried [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

anyone that pushes all in on the turn vs. a good opponent doesn't get it. If you are playing a complete donkey, then I might go all in.