KQs -- does it matter what I do?

[lil feller]

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Preflop: I will frequently 3-bet with KQs. However, this guy's PFR is low enough that I don't feel comfortable doing it. However, it's not so low that I feel that I should be chucking this hand (as I would if it were below 7.5 or so). To be honest, my guess is that it's pretty close between all 3 options, and calling 2 cold is the least likely of the plays I would normally choose.


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I am curious as to why you want to float a seemingly solid player w/ a frequently dominated hand? Why the 7.5% PFR number as the cutoff? I may be playing incorrectly but I autofold against an unknown(no reads) with these numbers. I actually don't think an 8.85% PFR is that close to floating/or as you say you would normally do, 3 bet. Interested in why you view this as a +EV hand against his range.


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I like 3-betting against a player like him because he's not too aggressive postflop and I suspect that I can run him off a hand even if it's A high. I'm a big fan of position. Cold-calling is not too bad either, especially if I think it will encourage others to cold-call behind me (obviously didn't happen this time). The numbers I threw out like 7.5 PFR are somewhat arbitrary in that they're based on my own experience, so I don't have any scientific evidence to back them up. But like I said, my guess is that all three preflop options are fairly close in this case.

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I'm not sure I agree with all 3 being close against the same player. Isn't one of the three going to be clearly better based on how he plays postflop? I agree that three betting will often get him off a better hand if you both miss, but if his WTSD% is high, this won't work. Against a high WTSD% you have to hit to win whether you 3 bet or not, and more importantly he has to miss.

I think you can make a case for 3betting, if he's capable of folding A-high. I think you can make a case for folding if he's not. I think the only case for cold-calling is if you are reasonable sure that a lot of people will come behind you. What is MP3 by the converters standards? HiJack, cutoff? I honestly don't know. You left out the VPIP of the blinds and the people behind you and how many were behind you, which greatly factor into the coldcalling decision. All in all I think given the apparent game conditions 3betting and folding are close, and both are a lot better than cold calling. but i'm probably wrong.

lf

[Nightwish]

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Preflop: I will frequently 3-bet with KQs. However, this guy's PFR is low enough that I don't feel comfortable doing it. However, it's not so low that I feel that I should be chucking this hand (as I would if it were below 7.5 or so). To be honest, my guess is that it's pretty close between all 3 options, and calling 2 cold is the least likely of the plays I would normally choose.


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I am curious as to why you want to float a seemingly solid player w/ a frequently dominated hand? Why the 7.5% PFR number as the cutoff? I may be playing incorrectly but I autofold against an unknown(no reads) with these numbers. I actually don't think an 8.85% PFR is that close to floating/or as you say you would normally do, 3 bet. Interested in why you view this as a +EV hand against his range.


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I like 3-betting against a player like him because he's not too aggressive postflop and I suspect that I can run him off a hand even if it's A high. I'm a big fan of position. Cold-calling is not too bad either, especially if I think it will encourage others to cold-call behind me (obviously didn't happen this time). The numbers I threw out like 7.5 PFR are somewhat arbitrary in that they're based on my own experience, so I don't have any scientific evidence to back them up. But like I said, my guess is that all three preflop options are fairly close in this case.

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I'm not sure I agree with all 3 being close against the same player. Isn't one of the three going to be clearly better based on how he plays postflop? I agree that three betting will often get him off a better hand if you both miss, but if his WTSD% is high, this won't work. Against a high WTSD% you have to hit to win whether you 3 bet or not, and more importantly he has to miss.

I think you can make a case for 3betting, if he's capable of folding A-high. I think you can make a case for folding if he's not. I think the only case for cold-calling is if you are reasonable sure that a lot of people will come behind you. What is MP3 by the converters standards? HiJack, cutoff? I honestly don't know. You left out the VPIP of the blinds and the people behind you and how many were behind you, which greatly factor into the coldcalling decision. All in all I think given the apparent game conditions 3betting and folding are close, and both are a lot better than cold calling. but i'm probably wrong.


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Yeah, MP3 is the hijack. Here are some additional stats.

CO: 50.93/5.95/0.93 over 269 hands
Button: 25.17/12.56/1.68 over 3,909 hands
SB: 25.95/11.28/1.19 over 709 hands
BB: 17.77/9.83/1.09 over 692 hands

Does that change your mind at all? Frankly, I thought it was fairly likely that the CO would come in pretty much regardless of what I did. I thought there was a decent chance the rest of them would also come in if both me and the CO called 2 cold, but I was pretty sure it would end up 3-ways if I 3-bet, i.e. the original raiser, me, and the CO. I was very surprised when the CO folded.

[lil feller]

If it were me looking at those stats, i'd lean towards a fold. Certainly the c/o folding is surprising, but you know the BB is folding, and if he doesn't your probably in trouble. The two 25/12 guys aren't really the coldcalling type, to aggressive, so if they're playing they are probably 3 betting. Tough to say for sure, but based on how I read PT stats, those make it look more like a fold or 3bet then a call.

lf

[SLEEPER]

Nightwish,

If he knows you have KQ, would he assume you would call a bet on the river? Is he more likely to believe you will bet if he checks? If I had AA here, I would probably bet the river here way more than I check call/raise. I would probably bet, if he raises, I would probably fold, however, if he is capable of checkraising with his AK, then I might want to switch tables..... or not get involved with him in many hands.....

NH

[Saborion]

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And if he does have AA I don't see him going for the river checkraise since you could have a set.

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What set could Hero have here? I really don't think he'd cold-call with KK, 66 or 33 here pre-flop. If the villain have stats on Hero the most probable hands after the turn would be AA or KQs.

[Nightwish]

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Nightwish,

If he knows you have KQ, would he assume you would call a bet on the river? Is he more likely to believe you will bet if he checks? If I had AA here, I would probably bet the river here way more than I check call/raise. I would probably bet, if he raises, I would probably fold, however, if he is capable of checkraising with his AK, then I might want to switch tables..... or not get involved with him in many hands.....

NH

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I think you misunderstood what I was saying. I doubt he'd be check-raising with AK, but I'm not so sure that he wouldn't check-raise with KQ. That makes it 10 hands that he might check-raise, but I only lose to 6 of them, which means I have to call the check-raise. Of course, my guess is he's not equally likely to be check-raising with all 10, but I don't know what his actual probability distribution is (if I did, I wouldn't have posted this hand).

[Saborion]

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I think this is super easy. Bet and fold to a check raise. He's never check-raising a worse hand.

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Isn't that a reason for him to check-raise with AK? If he's going to call one bet he might as well check-raise since everyone seems to agree he'll never do it with a worse hand. Doesn't that fact make it a perfect situation to bluff? Shania drowned in the river?

[bernie]

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fold preflop

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