Check-raising a 2+2er with quads

[Nightwish]

The villain in this hand is a known 2+2er. His stats are 23.68/17.29/1.72 over 2,424 hands. The game is Party 30/60, it's being played 9-handed, and the CO is posting the BB for his first hand.

UTG limps, 2+2er limps in UTG+1, MP1 folds, MP2 calls, MP3 folds, CO checks, button folds, I complete with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], and BB checks.

Flop (6 players, 6 SB): K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

I check, it's checked around to the 2+2er who bets, the two people behind him fold, I call, and the other two guys fold as well.

Turn (2 players, 4 BB): 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

I bet, 2+2er calls.

River (2 players, 6 BB): K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

I check with the intention of check-raising....

Comments on all streets appreciated.

[DcifrThs]

checkraising risks check behinds from A high and low pairs like 66. basically his entire hand range.

bet. A9s or in this case given his stats and a UTG limper (who, if bad, is likely to engender overlimping w/ hands like J9, and Axs which may bet the flop) maybe J9s trying to steal are you best bets. but they don't compose a range of hands that would even come remotely close to a range you want to c'r on the end,

remember: its Pr(A=CALLING A BET) vs. Pr(B=BETTING WHEN CHECKED TO) AND Pr(C=CALLING THE C'R)

Pr(B) on this board is so low in most cases AND Pr(A) is so effing high that you lose a ton of value overall when he checks behind.

Barron

[DeeJ]

bet the [xxxxxx] river and hope he raises with a pair ...... he'll call with Ace high, he may even raise with it. Hope the checkraise worked out but on a scary board like that I'd probably be checking behind if I got the chance even with any pair lower than 9s.

[ALL1N]

I think you should CR the flop. I wouldn't try to CR this river, no.

Does anyone else think this is a flop lead? Makes you way more money in my books.

I think you lose value in this hand by checking the river. I think that it is highly likely that the villain has a kings full of nines full house, and if you bet he wont give you credit for quads and will raise with kings full. I think his call on the turn suggests this point. Why check? dont let him check behind you just in case...you know he's calling with kings full of nines, and maybe raising. Bet the river.

[Saborion]

Your hand range is pretty narrow given that you called a drawless board with two players to act behind you. Kx or a PP<JJ, possible less than TT. No way that 9 on the turn helped you unless you have exactly 99, and opponent should know this, meaning his call should indicate that he's either on a flush draw or is showdown committed with 9x or a PP<99.

Given your range I can't see him betting the river here ever, even less so calling a CR. Just bet and hope he calls with 9x or possible the lower PP's, because he certainly won't bet them.

[ QUOTE ]
I think that it is highly likely that the villain has a kings full of nines full house

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I don't think this is likely as you think. What hand is this player calling preflop and betting the flop with that includes a 9? I think it looks like you have Kx, A3s, or some pocket pair. I don't think this player will be betting this river enough for you to make money on your c/r. If she will fold to your raise, then you only make 0 or 1 bet. If you bet, you make 1 or 3 bets. I think this player will raise your bet often enough for you to make more betting than by checking. This is a perfect opportunity to get aggressive with a nut hand.

[Nightwish]

Here's my thought process on this hand.

First of all, I doubt that he's putting me on a 9 (at least on the turn). If I had a pair of 9's, why would I bet the turn? I'm quite certain that betting with a turned 9 is far worse than check-calling. I think he knows that too.

If I'm betting the turn, there are four things he should be putting me on:

(a) a 3
(b) a spade draw
(c) A high
(d) a K

Still, the turn bet on my part is very weird and I did it specifically to throw him off-balance. It's a completely unexpected move. But when he calls, he's got something:

(a) Maybe it's a 3 (though pretty unlikely since I can't think of him limping with any hand UTG+1 that has a 3 unless it's A3s, and even then it's unlikely).

(b) It may be that he was just taking a stab on the flop and happened to have turned a 9.

(c) It may be a better K that he's now trapping me with (or perhaps he himself is afraid of a bigger K).

(d) It may be a pocket pair 66 or less.

(e) And it may be a spade draw.

But now with the K coming on the river, take a look at his range of hands. This guy is aggressive, my river check will indicate to him that I was just trying to steal it on the turn, so he'll either make what he thinks is a value bet (with what is in that case almost certainly a small pocket pair) or take one last stab at it with his missed spade draw.

So I thought I could actually check-raise someone like him.

I checked, he bet, I raised, and he instamucked. So we'll never know what he had, but my guess is that it's either a small pocket pair or a spade draw. My guess also is that he was pretty pissed.

[Nightwish]

[ QUOTE ]
Does anyone else think this is a flop lead? Makes you way more money in my books.

[/ QUOTE ]
I will frequently do exactly that. But not always.