#11
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Re: Results/Thoughts
Very interesting, the call is:
Neutral to slightly +(chip EV) Very +(Fun EV) but has a relatively high probability of sending you to the rails I’m guessing you believe the call was +($ EV) as well. If I wave my magic wand and move the hand to the bubble, is it still +($ EV)? |
#12
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Re: Results/Thoughts
[ QUOTE ]
I’m guessing you believe the call was +($ EV) as well. If I wave my magic wand and move the hand to the bubble, is it still +($ EV)? [/ QUOTE ] If it were the bubble it would still be +CEV (chip EV), but -$EV given the amount of times I go to the rail assuming if I fold I make the $$$ every time. I would also probably play the hand differently PF as in level 1 I'm pretty deep (80BB's), but at the bubble If I have 30BB's I'm probably in the top 10% of those left. Shorter stacks would have probably made me raise PF as I would want to know how strong I am on the cheapest street (PF), whereas with this example my "plan" was to try to extract more on later streets because I was deep enough to find out how strong I was later and still fold comfortably if behind. Regards, Woodguy |
#13
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Re: Results/Thoughts
Calling 3-way, you were 46% against AK and JJ. Against AA and JJ, you would have 19%. You are not likely to see hands a lot weaker than JJ or AK here. I think this is a fairly close decision. If it is 50-50 you are not dominated, the call is about even money. I have a feeling this is cEV-, but if you want to gamble, it is probably OK.
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#14
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Re: Results/Thoughts
[ QUOTE ]
If it were the bubble it would still be +CEV (chip EV), but -$EV [/ QUOTE ] I hoped you'd say that. No wait, I was afraid you'd say that. My head hurts. |
#15
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Re: Results/Thoughts
I got my "even money" stat from this:
(I can't copy from pokerstove) QQ 35% AA-JJ AK 38.5% Button AA-88,AK 26.5% UTG So its pretty close and the dead $$$ tips it a bit. I think these ranges are fair as I have seen a lot of limp re-raises with pairs down to 22 especially early, as well as AK. [ QUOTE ] Against AA and JJ, you would have 19%. [/ QUOTE ] True, but I can't put them on that narrow of a range with the action. Regards, Woodguy |
#16
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Re: Results/Thoughts
[ QUOTE ]
got my "even money" stat from this: (I can't copy from pokerstove) QQ 35% AA-JJ AK 38.5% Button AA-88,AK 26.5% UTG So its pretty close and the dead $$$ tips it a bit. [/ QUOTE ] You are considering all those hands equally. That ius a faw of your mathematical analysis. AA or KK is a lot more likely than 88. I think 35% is high. However, it is hard to see that it is less than 30%. I might gamble even if it is cEV- to build a big stack. |
#17
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Re: Results/Thoughts
[ QUOTE ]
You are considering all those hands equally. That ius a faw of your mathematical analysis. AA or KK is a lot more likely than 88 [/ QUOTE ] I understand what you are getting at. That is why I left out 77-22. Early in a Super I wouldn't discount 77-22 at all, nor AK. If I add in 77-22 I am in very good shape. To counterbalance the weighting effect, I left 77-22 out. Regards, Woodguy |
#18
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Re: Results/Thoughts
lol. I am glad you would up against AK and JJ, and I don't think it is a terrible call, but I think your math is optimistic.
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#19
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Re: Results/Thoughts
[ QUOTE ]
I think your math is optimistic. [/ QUOTE ] Level 1 in a Super I have seen UTG turn over 55, 22, QJs etc. Later in the tourney it may be optimisitc, but not early. OK, here's the numbers putting both UTG and Button on : AA-JJ AK. QQ 32.5% UTG 33.5% Button 33.5% Dead $$$ still tips the scales to a call. I don't think that this range is too wide or too optimistic. In fact its far too tight. Regards, Woodguy |
#20
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Re: Results/Thoughts
[ QUOTE ]
Level 1 in a Super I have seen UTG turn over 55, 22, QJs etc. Later in the tourney it may be optimisitc, but not early. OK, here's the numbers putting both UTG and Button on : AA-JJ AK. QQ 32.5% UTG 33.5% Button 33.5% Dead $$$ still tips the scales to a call. I don't think that this range is too wide or too optimistic. In fact its far too tight. [/ QUOTE ] I think these figures are about right. Yeah someone might have Q2. However, AA or KK are a lot more likely than JJ or AK. Not everyone calls 50xBB with JJ or AK. |
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