too aggressive?

[SumZero]

Final 4 players (prize pool pays 1st $500, 2nd $300, 3rd $205, 4th $155) and 3 of the 4 of us are short stacked with antes of 1600, small blinds of 8000, big blinds of 16000 (and it is a turbo 5 minute levels, about 1/2 way through the level).

Chip levels and positions before any antes and blinds for the hand:

I'm in the sb with 81260 (M=2.7)
shortest stack is in the bb with 47215 (M=1.6)
UTG Villain has 91445 (M=3)
big stack has 375580 (M=12.4)

UTG min-raises to $32000, big stack folds. I have Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and move in.

UTG used to be a bigger stack and was a bit of a loose bully with more players at the table (who were even more short stacked) but a few hands back lost a big pot to current chip leader.

I've been on the tight and aggressive side.

I would fold since you will get two more sets of cards before you're the BB. chance is he got an A and you're in bad shape then. I'd say wait a bit longer on this one.

[Exitonly]

You had a decent hand, but not much FE, and the pot is already big compared to your stack (65k-ish).. sounds like a perfecct stop and go situation to me.

[FiReSiStAnT]

QJ is not a strong hand
If its suited then seeing a flop doesnt seem like abad idea but your outta position.....

[FiReSiStAnT]

And, he could be b etter with a marginal hand but still be ahead with something like KTs or Ax

[Exitonly]

[ QUOTE ]

QJ is not a strong hand
If its suited then seeing a flop doesnt seem like abad idea but your outta position.....

[/ QUOTE ]

You realize this is 4 handed, in a turbo tournament, and everyone (except leader) is already shortstacked?

[caseycjc]

The only reason I lean towards folding here is because you're sandwiched between two players. The BB certainly has much more urgency and investment and may choose to push himself. I don't want to play this 3 handed.

[benkahuna]

I like the discussion here, but wanted to add one thing. Your situation M-wise is more dire than it appears. Harrington says to multiply your M by the percent of players at the table based on 10 being a full table so your M is actually much closer to 1 here.

Against pros, I'd happily move in here. A pro would never mini-raise in that spot though and a table of pros would be unlikely to all end up so shortstacked.

Against a table like you're at, I'd be fairly certain I was behind and fold even though I think you're theoretically quite justified in pushing.

You've lost your first in vigorish here since you've already been raised. There's pressure on the bb and he might even go out this hand, best hand or not.

Given your low M, Dan says all in or fold. I agree.

Given your particular table, if you think there's some decent chance the villain and others will fold, I'm much happier going all in. I think your hand loses its value if the villain folding isn't a way you can win. Enough so that I would fold. That's probably just my personal sense of bad judgement though.

[SumZero]

[ QUOTE ]
Against pros, I'd happily move in here. A pro would never mini-raise in that spot though and a table of pros would be unlikely to all end up so shortstacked.

Against a table like you're at, I'd be fairly certain I was behind and fold even though I think you're theoretically quite justified in pushing.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree a pro would basically never min-raise here. I disagree about the table of pros never ending up so short stacked though as if they played in a turbo tournament like this I think a decent percentage of the people have to end up short stacked as the blinds move up so fast and on certain late tournaments there are no steal chances and a couple of people (different people each hand) are all in on every hand. So I agree there would be fewer of them (like the final table would not have been 8 short stacks and 2 ok stacks) but I think even some pros would have been short stacked here (maybe 5 or 6 short stacks on the final table).

[ QUOTE ]
Given your particular table, if you think there's some decent chance the villain and others will fold, I'm much happier going all in. I think your hand loses its value if the villain folding isn't a way you can win. Enough so that I would fold. That's probably just my personal sense of bad judgement though.

[/ QUOTE ]

BB, the short stack, was playing too tightly. Villain had made some odd folds to raises occasionally, so I thought I had some small folding equity (although would have probably had a lot more on a stop-and-go if he doesn't hit).

So if we make a couple of simplifying assumptions and assume that:

1. If I fold then 1 of 3 things can happen:

1a BB goes all in, is called the extra ~$15K and loses
1b BB goes all in, is called the extra ~$15K and wins
1c BB folds

2. If I move all in the BB will fold (which is what actually happened) and then:

2a UTG calls the all in and wins
2b UTG calls the all in and loses
2c UTG folds

I think all of the above assumptions are pretty good *except* the assumption that the BB folds when I move in. If the BB has a top hand he will call all-in. But he probably should only do it on absolute premium hands given the potential battle between the 2nd and 3rd place people.

According to ICM my EV for the above is:

1a: $263.64
1b: $248.38
1c: $251.35

2a: $155
2b: $345.34
2c: $306.70

so if I fold I'm looking at an EV in the mid $250s. If I split the all-ins into 20% of the time all folds, 35% UTG calls and I win, 45% UTG calls and I lose (which represents me having a 43.75% win rate against his calling range) then my EV is $251.96.

I think that 20/35/45 is probably slightly optimistic but not by a lot (if you change it to 10/40/50 it becomes EV $246.31).

So I think the prefered line, using the assumptions above (which include no stop-and-go try), is to fold.

Actual hand results:

<font color="white">
In the actual hand I went all-in and was called by A8o and was a 43.4% underdog (EV of $237.61 once he calls).

flop came TT8 (so the stop-and-go wouldn't have worked any differently as he'd be a fool to not call that with his A8o IMO).

I didn't hit my Q,J, or 9 outs on turn or river and was out in 4th.
</font>

[Exitonly]

Well don't make the mistake of looking at the results and saying "well stop and go wouldn't have worked this time.. it's not the right play"

I'm not sure the Stop and Go is right here, but i'm still leaning towards that.