Ace on the board in low-limit games

[WhoIam]

I've found that in loose low-limit games, at least one person will almost always have an ace. This leads me to fold some hands I noramally wouldn't if I were playing against tighter opponents when an ace hits. Does anyone else do this? Is my reasoning totally flawed? I'd like some feedback on this.
thanks

[Highn]

Funny you mention this, I do the complete opposite in fear of playing too passively. Guess it's somewhere in between [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[VoraciousReader]

Here's my take on this. Many of the .50/1 players will play any ace in any position. Therefore, if I am against 3 or more opponents and an overcard falls to my hand, I give it more weight in deciding how to continue if it's an ace. I'm also more careful in playing Top Pair Mediocre Kicker if my TP is an ace.

So I don't think you are necessarily wrong, but I would be very leery of blanket statements like "someone always has an ace." Especially when you are 3-handed, that could give you a serious case of MUBS, and cost you a lot of $. Keep in mind, too, that every ace on the board or in your hand is one ace your opponents DON'T have.

Basically, it's just one more factor among many in determining the best play. (Or in my case, since my poker game sucks, the least sucky play. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img])

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
I've found that in loose low-limit games, at least one person will almost always have an ace.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is selective memory. Your statement is completely false.

[ QUOTE ]
This leads me to fold some hands I noramally wouldn't if I were playing against tighter opponents when an ace hits. Does anyone else do this? Is my reasoning totally flawed?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well... your reasoning is flawed, but it doesn't mean that your play is flawed. Context is important. If you always dumped when an ace falls and you don't have one, you're leaking money. In games where you think someone always has an ace, you're usually getting odds to draw to trips or two pair on the turn.

[WhoIam]

Sorry, I didn’t really provide any context for my question and I certainly don’t dump every hand just because there is an ace on the board. This applies only to a loose game with generally bad players. Obviously I would stay in if the pot were very large. Here is some of my reasoning:

In a 10-handed game, there is a 1/13 chance of an ace being dealt 20 times, for an average of about 1.5 total aces per round. In a typical small- or micro-limit game, half the players will play any ace, while the other half will only play AT-AK (for the sake of simplicity, AA will be ignored. All of the following math is somewhat oversimplified and therefore not totally accurate.) On average, these players will play .75 ace/round. The tighter players will play 1/3 of the possible ace combinations for .25 ace/round. So, on average, an ace will see the flop every round. Also, if an ace flops, nearly all of these players will stay to a showdown unless there is overwhelming pressure. Most of these players will probably see the turn for one bet as well.

So, for example, I’m in the BB w/ QQ. There are 5 limpers and I limp. The flop is A94 rainbow and I bet and get 4 callers. My reasoning is that I should seriously think about checking and folding on the turn instead of just betting again. While most of the callers probably have cards like J9 or even KJ, statistically, there’s probably an ace and I’m drawing almost dead. Same thing with KQo on AQ4 if I miss the turn.

I get the feeling there might be something completely wrong about my reasoning and would appreciate it if someone pointed it out to me or gave me some feedback.

[irishpint]

</font><blockquote><font class="small">En respuesta a:</font><hr />


So, for example, I’m in the BB w/ QQ. There are 5 limpers and I limp.

[/ QUOTE ]

you owe me $20 to buy a rag and something to clean up vomit w/...my computer is nearly ruined.

read: you need to raise here. like, really really should. you have pocket queens!

[turaho]

[ QUOTE ]
So, for example, I’m in the BB w/ QQ. There are 5 limpers and I limp.

[/ QUOTE ]

As previously stated, this is incredibly weak/tight. You have HUGE equity preflop against 5 limpers. Don't be afraid to push that just because you "don't want to build a big pot for people to chase" or you "know an ace will come on the flop".

[ QUOTE ]
The flop is A94 rainbow and I bet and get 4 callers. My reasoning is that I should seriously think about checking and folding on the turn instead of just betting again. While most of the callers probably have cards like J9 or even KJ, statistically, there’s probably an ace and I’m drawing almost dead.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, this is a dry board, but think about your opponents. T9 or 98 calls this because you didn't show any strength pre-flop. A medium pocket pair might call down too, for the same reason. Or you have the real morons who limped with 43o or any two suited cards and are hoping to hit their five-outers or backdoor flush draws. Think about it. You get four callers on an A high flop. Clearly people are calling with worse than top pair.

Yes, there may be an ace out there and yes, they may be so passive as to just call you down the whole way. But you're good often enough that it's worth pushing your marginal equity edge. Sucks when you lose to someone with A5o who got pretty much the best flop he could hope for and yet is too much of a wimp to bet it.

If someone plays back at you, then I'd let it go unless I had a good read.

[Saint_D]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]


So, for example, I&amp;#8217;m in the BB w/ QQ. There are 5 limpers and I limp.

[/ QUOTE ]

you owe me $20 to buy a rag and something to clean up vomit w/...my computer is nearly ruined.

read: you need to raise here. like, really really should. you have pocket queens! Pocket queens win more than thier fair share, and you almost certianly have the best hand right now.

[/ QUOTE ]

FYP.

Not only do you have best hand right now you are 7.5:1 to flop set, full house or quads. You have the implied odds [/b]on that alone[/b] to raise here.

Once the flop comes you have to pay attention to all the factors. Are there overcards to your pair? Is there a flush or strait draw? Do you have a backdoor draw to that strait or flush?

Hero: Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

<ul type="square">[*]Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
Bet this flop. Mr. A5o may very well be forced to fold his ace to aggression. He fears you have AA since your raised PF from the BB. You might release your queens to heavy action since you have only 2 outs.
[*]Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
This one is more dangerous. Both the overcards are out. I would checkraise this flop (to protect your hand) and fold to the 3 bet. You have a backdoor strait and flush draw, but your queens are dirty, dirty out. Get the gutshot draws to fold.
[*]Flop: 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
Your queens are clean, but the flush is out there. Once again, lead this flop and be willing to cap this street. You want the small aces to pack it in and the flush draws to never see a free card.
[*]flop: Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
Lead this flop as well. Paired flops check around a lot. If everyone folds you couldn't have charged them more anyway. If you are lucky someone has a J or 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]'s and they will pay you off. If the heart hits the A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] will probably go to war with you.
[/list]

[WhoIam]

This hand never actually happened; I don't know why I wrote I'd limp with the queens. I would definately raise with them. The preflop action isn't really relevent to my argument. Pretend I raised.