Sports betting newbie, NFL fanatic.

[LargeCents]

I'm an absolute NFL insane fanatic. To illustrate, I'm right now watching Patriots-Browns from late last season on a random tape a got out because I'm so pumped about the NFL season coming up. I'm not even remotely a fan of either the Patriots or the Browns, I'm just so starved to watch some NFL action. I record every game available on tape during the NFL season, and record over my tapes on a rotating basis. Someone that would watch an absolute meaningless game from last season like this, in July, has to be considered very hardcore NFL.

I've never done any sports betting, but I've always followed the betting lines for weekly NFL games, for fun. I've also done the fantasy football thing, but I think it concentrates too much on stats rather than performance and results win/loss-wise. I'd prefer to take odds on win/loss outcomes of games.

So, where do I start? Where are the best places to learn how to "handicap", or is there a definitive book or article that can get me started? I don't want to just make stupid bets for entertainment value. I want actual +EV based on what I can understand about the NFL based on my obsession. Any help at all will be appreciated!

[Easy E]

Someone that would watch an absolute meaningless game from last season like this, in July, has to be considered borderline insane.
FYP

I don't want to just make stupid bets for entertainment value. I want actual +EV

Well, there's one vote against restarting the 3+1 contest. [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img]

[LargeCents]

[ QUOTE ]
Someone that would watch an absolute meaningless game from last season like this, in July, has to be considered borderline insane.
FYP

I don't want to just make stupid bets for entertainment value. I want actual +EV

Well, there's one vote against restarting the 3+1 contest. [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

First part you hit the nail on the head with a hammer.

Second part, I have no clue what 3+1 is. Sounds like some forum pool or something.

[Losing all]

What you describe is me with MLB (huge NFL fan too, but not to the same extent). handicapping is tough though, even if you figure it out it will take lots of time.

Tech made a good post a few weeks ago about the advantages of sharp plays such as, line shopping (have many outs) and
scalps/middles. Nothing wrong with bonuses, free half points, free plays, or any other type of player reward either.

book- Stanford Wong's sharp sports betting is a good place to start.

Good luck. I'm sure you're smart enough to pull down some profits. Disipline is the key, it's very easy to trick yourself into finding "value" in the game you're about to watch.

[Bill C]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm an absolute NFL insane fanatic.

[/ QUOTE ]

This makes it really tough to gamble well, because your emotions will tend to get in the way. The best gamblers I know, and I know a few, like the game they play, but aren't anybody's "fan" and view the contests as vehicles to evaluate and make money with.

And if/when you start out, I urge you in the direction of very small plays until you get your feet under you. See how it goes over a season or two before making anything like a serious bet.

Basically that's what I am doing with baseball. I have been a successful horse player for, lets just say... several decades. That doesn't mean I am any good at gambling on any other game. And if baseball doesn't work out for me, I'll pitch it and stick to horses and poker. I am not a "fan."

Hope these rambling thoughts help you in some fashion.

bill c

[LargeCents]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm an absolute NFL insane fanatic.

[/ QUOTE ]

This makes it really tough to gamble well, because your emotions will tend to get in the way. The best gamblers I know, and I know a few, like the game they play, but aren't anybody's "fan" and view the contests as vehicles to evaluate and make money with.

And if/when you start out, I urge you in the direction of very small plays until you get your feet under you. See how it goes over a season or two before making anything like a serious bet.

Basically that's what I am doing with baseball. I have been a successful horse player for, lets just say... several decades. That doesn't mean I am any good at gambling on any other game. And if baseball doesn't work out for me, I'll pitch it and stick to horses and poker. I am not a "fan."

Hope these rambling thoughts help you in some fashion.

bill c

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm actually not a fan of any particular team. If anything, I'm kinda a Packer fan, having lived here in Wisconsin my whole life. But, I'm picking the Packers to crash and burn this year. I think I am very objective.

I don't know if I'll EVER get to the stage where I make large bets. I thought I'd definitely take this year to just play around and learn the in/outs of it all by placing small bets if any at all. Probably just betting to maximize any bonus potential, essentially bonus whoring the sportsbooks if that's possible. Just trying to expand my horizons past poker, if that makes any sense.