gettin' tricky w/ it...

lil feller · #1 12-11-2005, 05:50 AM

MP1 is like 65/35/2.1 over 600 hands
SB is 14/7/1.8 over about 150 hands

Party Poker 15/30 Hold'em (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is CO with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
2 folds, MP1 raises, 2 folds, Hero 3-bets, 1 fold, SB calls, 1 fold, MP1 calls.

Flop: (10 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, MP1 checks, Hero bets, SB calls, MP1 calls.

Turn: (6.50 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, MP1 checks, Hero checks.

River: (6.50 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, MP1 bets, Hero raises...

thoughts? I'll put mine up later

thanks,

lf

Dazarath · #2 12-11-2005, 12:58 PM

I doubt he'll ever fold with that straight on the board, and you're getting 3-bet by a T. I'd just call.

JackOfSpeed · #3 12-11-2005, 02:55 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I doubt he'll ever fold with that straight on the board, and you're getting 3-bet by a T. I'd just call.

[/ QUOTE ]

lil feller · #4 12-11-2005, 03:57 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I doubt he'll ever fold with that straight on the board, and you're getting 3-bet by a T. I'd just call.

[/ QUOTE ]

The raise was intended to get a fold out of the SB, not the better. Do you think the SB calls 2 cold w/out a T here?

lf

WillyTrailer · #5 12-11-2005, 04:19 PM

[ QUOTE ]

The raise was intended to get a fold out of the SB, not the better. Do you think the SB calls 2 cold w/out a T here?

lf

[/ QUOTE ]

He shouldn't and likely will not call two cold here without a T. But only because you probably shouldn't be raising here without a T. You'll get called if SB has a T and 3-bet by the monkey if he has a T.
You're risking 2 BB for a chance to win 1 BB here!
You think that the percentages of sb calling without a T, or having a T or monkey not having a T are worth a try?

-WT

lil feller · #6 12-11-2005, 04:46 PM

Probably not, normally I'd just check here but I wanted to try something new, and to see if my read was right on both their hands. This isn't a standard play for me, just wondering if the idea has merit.

lf

Entity · #7 12-11-2005, 05:02 PM

Off the top of my head I really like it. On the surface it seems like you're risking 3BB to win 1/2 of SB's share (3.17BB) of the pot, but I don't think it's quite that. Since this sort of player is often the sort to bet "his straight" on this river, even when we're risking 3BB's when he does have a T (we have to call his 3-bet, I'm assuming, given our lack of a detailed read and the general read provided by his stats), that this will be turning a small profit here.

My guess, offhand, is that he's got a T about 20% of the time. So 20% of the time, we lose 3BB. 80% of the time, we win an additional 1.58BB. We'd earn about 2/3 of a BB on this play overall.

There are some other factors, but guessing that SB would lead with a T and will fold when he doesn't have one here, it looks like we're going to turn a profit -- even if we're calling a 3-bet -- if MP has the straight 34% of the time or less.

Anyway, I like it. Folding a chop in a fairly big pot is usually very worthwhile.

Rob

WillyTrailer · #8 12-11-2005, 05:09 PM

I'm not saying that you definitely shouldn't do it at all. Your plan certainly has some merit. It needs to work in the neighborhood of 70% of the time though. It very well may work that % of the time in instances like this. But you need a pretty good read to put neither of them on a T here. If you were confident in your read, then good play.

-WT

Dazarath · #9 12-11-2005, 06:07 PM

[ QUOTE ]
The raise was intended to get a fold out of the SB, not the better. Do you think the SB calls 2 cold w/out a T here?

[/ QUOTE ]

I misread the action. In that case, I like it. What's your plan if you get 3-bet?

lil feller · #10 12-11-2005, 06:13 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The raise was intended to get a fold out of the SB, not the better. Do you think the SB calls 2 cold w/out a T here?

[/ QUOTE ]

I misread the action. In that case, I like it. What's your plan if you get 3-bet?

[/ QUOTE ]

If the SB 3bets I insta-muck. If the SB calls and the maniac 3bets I muck. If the SB folds and the maniac 3bets I throw up a little and call, as i've seen him make similar plays in the past.

lf