2-bet turn raiser on 1-card river straight?

[ellipse_87]

No specific reads... I remember the table as being loose and somewhat aggressive.

What factors do you think should go into deciding whether or not to raise the river?

PokerStars 1/2 Hold'em (6 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, SB calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>.

Flop: (5 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, SB calls.

Turn: (3.50 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises</font>, Hero calls.

River: (7.50 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>...

[krimson]

Factors going into decision...

I have the high end of a straight on a non-paired, non-flush board. Let me think...

Easy raise. Calling here would be ridiculously weak. Only 78 has you beat.

[@bsolute_luck]

i don't get why you bet the turn.

With no reads I would be hard pressed to bet the turn with a board like that after he called the flop.

On the river I'd raise and call a 3-bet and think about capping since only 1 hand can beat you. No reads I might just call the 3-bet, if he's displayed any signs of suckage I would probably cap to a 3-bet.

[ellipse_87]

Let's say we've concluded that the 6 made villain's hand. (Not an inevitable conclusion, but just for argument's sake...) Are we ahead 67% of the time?

[car ramrod]

[ QUOTE ]
i don't get why you bet the turn.


[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not so against the turn bet. We now have 11 outs, its heads up, I think its an ok semi bluff. I would only do it heads up, but I think its ok here.

Would you check/call, check /fold? just curious

[krimson]

[ QUOTE ]
Let's say we've concluded that the 6 made villain's hand. (Not an inevitable conclusion, but just for argument's sake...) Are we ahead 67% of the time?

[/ QUOTE ]

Why do you think it was the turn that "made villians hand". How do you know he doesn't have a Q, a PP, a slowplayed set or two pair, or c/r'ing pure air as a defense because he thinks your on a steal?

Your ahead much more than 67% of the time.

[ellipse_87]

[ QUOTE ]
Why do you think it was the turn that "made villians hand".

[/ QUOTE ]

I was just putting it out there as a hypothetical.

Thanks, those of you who made me think about the turn. I always just auto-semi-bluff when I hit a strong draw like that and I have the initiative. I don't often stop to consider what he could be calling the flop with, getting 6-1, and how the turn card impacts that. The 6 is not an overcard to any pocket pair, for instance. I have to work on that some more.

In this case, one can make an educated guess that he could have called a 5-outer on the flop needing ~ 8-1 effective odds, and that a bet had a good chance of taking the pot immediately. In real time, I was just auto-betting.

FWIW, here's how it turned out, demonstrating that pot odds are sometimes (often?) irrelevant for hand-reading at 1/2.

<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB 3-bets</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 13.50 BB

Results :
SB has 7s 8c (straight, eight high).
Hero has Ah 7h (straight, seven high).
Outcome: SB wins 13.50 BB.

[eviljeff]

I'm not even thinking of not raising this river here. if he 3bets then we can think about calling.

factors to consider:
whether he'll call with a worse hand (likely unless his turn c/r was a total bluff or he's got a good read on you)
how often we're ahead here (very)
how often we're ahead if 3bet (possibly less than 50%, so I might refrain from capping)