AJs call ss push on the bubble with medium stack?

[shejk]

I'm putting the pusher on a pretty wide range, like all pockets, most aces and quite a few broadway hands. I will definately be the shortstack if I lose, but one won allin and I'm back in the game. If I win, I'm itm and in a good position to get first.

Do you call?

(100+9)

***** Hand History for Game 1994498781 *****
300/600 TourneyTexasHTGameTable (NL)
Table Table 11246 (Real Money) -- Seat 4 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 3: ChunkTheMonk (3786)
Seat 4: alex987 (1570)
Seat 6: Hero (2250)
Seat 9: corpuscowboy (2394)
Hero posts small blind (150)
corpuscowboy posts big blind (300)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ Ac, Jc ]
ChunkTheMonk folds.
alex987 raises (1570) to 1570
alex987 is all-In.
Hero calls (1420)
corpuscowboy folds.
Creating Main Pot with $3440 with alex987
Main Pot: 3440 |

Edited out my screen name, ty tjh.

[tjh]

I would call that. Curious as to what the others say.

You know that your screen name is in that post. Edit if you want to keep that private...

--
tjh

[shejk]

bump

[dfscott]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm putting the pusher on a pretty wide range, like all pockets, most aces and quite a few broadway hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you're willing to say any pair, any ace, and most broadways, it's an easy call. Frankly, I'd think he'd be pushing with even worse hands (I would).

It's not until you tighten him up to middle pairs, medium aces, and big kings that this is -EV to call.

[Gramps]

It's a pretty easy call IMO. Yes, it's nice when you get a "freeroll" into 3rd by two other players getting in a confrontation. However, even though you'll get 4th more often by calling, that will be more than offset by your increase in 1sts/2nds. I think a good way to think of it in these spots, is that folding does not guarantee you 3rd (there will now be 3 even stacks, and you're going to have to push some hands to steal chips and put your tourney life on the line to maintain your stack as the bubble battle continues). When you have the best of it by this much, you really have to make a stand (absent some odd variables).

Even if the SS is pushing about the top 25% of hands, AJs is a 59% favorite. My guess (without knowing how he's played up til now) is that he's pushing an even wider range. You're getting 2020:1270 or about 5:3 on your call as a 60%+ favorite. And even of the times you lose, you will still only be one showdown away from winning your fold equity back.

Now, if you had a hand like A8o/A9o, then it would be a tougher decision. Or if it was a semi-reasonable big stack pushing it would be a much tougher decision with AJs (because winning doesn't guarantee you at least 20% of the prize pool).

[Tilt]

Easy call IMO.

[UMTerp]

I think this will be a LOT closer than you guys think if you did an ICM calc. Like close to break even; maybe even on the bad side of it.

I certainly don't think it's a terrible call, but I bet it's pretty close to EV-neutral.

[shejk]

I'm not very good at those ICM-calcs, but I did one and came to the conclusion that it was indeed pretty close, which is why I posted it (as opposed to hands I post because I just felt lost... [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] ).