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Old 03-24-2005, 09:37 PM
teamdonkey teamdonkey is offline
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Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: where am i?
Posts: 247
Default Re: Bubble hand

my first attempt at ICM, take it for what it's worth

I see 5 relevant scenerios:
1. Fold and big stack wins
2. Fold and small stack wins
3. Call and lose
4. Call and win, big stack wins side pot
5. Call and win, small stack wins side pot

I put the $EV for these 5 at:
1. 0.219
2. 0.0496
3. 0
4. 0.3009
5. 0.2629

Assuming the hero, big stack and small stack all have an equal chance at winning the hand (an obviously flawed assumption), i put folding at $0.13, and calling at $0.09. A clear fold, yes? The chance of you winning would have to be greater than 46% to make this +$EV, and KJs almost certainly isn't that much of a favorite.
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