Two Plus Two Older Archives  

Go Back   Two Plus Two Older Archives > Other Poker > Omaha/8

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 04-28-2005, 12:18 PM
GooperMC GooperMC is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 298
Default What do you think of my play

Sorry don't have the hand history in front me so here is the story version.

.5/1 Party, I am OTB with Ac 2c 3x 7x. 4 limpers to me, and I raise, both blinds and everyone else calls.

Flop (6 handed, 12SB): Ad 8c 9s. Checks around to the CO who bets. CO is a real fish. He plays and shows down almost every hand so he have given about 25BB to the table in the last 1/2 hour. Because the better is so bad I think about a raise to isolate but decide the pot is too big to give people bad odds to draw. I decide to pull to try and draw people in for my low draw. I call so do 3 others.

Turn (5 players, 8.5BB): 10c. I just picked up the nut flush draw to go with my nut low draw. SB bets. SB is a decent (not great) player but hasn't gotten excessively out of line yet so I am guessing that he just made his str8. LP1 calls (another total fish), CO calls and I raise. UTG 3 bets, yep he made his str8, both fish call, and I cap. Everyone calls.

River (4 players, 24.5BB): 2s. Doh. SB bets, 1 fish calls, one fish folds. I make a crying calls with my weasly low and a 2 pair that I am pretty sure isn't good.

I think that I played this hand pretty well but the last time I posted a hand that I thought I played well I got cut apart [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]. All streets are open for suggestions / criticism.
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 04-28-2005, 12:43 PM
Texas Pete Texas Pete is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2004
Posts: 82
Default Re: What do you think of my play

I don't think raising with nothing is a good idea when you know that it won't fold anyone. I understand you are trying to make the pot big but I don't think that's the right idea. This is a semi-bluff raise because you don't have anything at the moment. I think it would pay if you had a chance to fold the others, which means i'd do it heads-up or perhaps in a 3-way pot if I had a wild hair.
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 04-28-2005, 12:55 PM
Cleveland Guy Cleveland Guy is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Cleveland, Ohio
Posts: 1,043
Default Re: What do you think of my play

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think raising with nothing is a good idea when you know that it won't fold anyone. I understand you are trying to make the pot big but I don't think that's the right idea. This is a semi-bluff raise because you don't have anything at the moment. I think it would pay if you had a chance to fold the others, which means i'd do it heads-up or perhaps in a 3-way pot if I had a wild hair.

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually - the worst thing about the raise, is your position to the original raiser.

If you think he has the straight, he should be 3-betting here, charging the low draws and flush draw the max to hit on him.

Your raise - will lead to his re-raise when he has the made straight - and now you are forcing everyone to call 2 more bets - which would make them more likely to fold.

You are closing action here - it's a good place to call, and then play the river accordingly - and put in your raise on the made low/made nut flush.

I think you really lost 2 bets here - cause the fold is easier on the river when you didn't raise the turn.
Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old 04-28-2005, 01:34 PM
gergery gergery is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: May 2004
Location: SF Bay Area (eastbay)
Posts: 719
Default Re: What do you think of my play

Preflop: good raise

Flop: call. I would never raise -- you have no high as TP weak kicker will not be besthold up.

Turn: Capping it seems slightly more EV than just calling but not by alot, so good. But expect higher variance.

River: getting 26:1 I can't argue for a fold. But I think its close.

So I'd have played it the same! Nice hand, sir.
-g
Reply With Quote
  #5  
Old 04-28-2005, 01:50 PM
Beavis68 Beavis68 is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: May 2004
Location: AZ
Posts: 779
Default Re: What do you think of my play

You only have 7 clean outs to scoop with a flush, and 11 outs to the nut low. 18 outs total - so 59% of the time you will lose your whole bet. 7 times you will scoop - 16% 11 times you will take half 25%

With four opponents

EVbet= (-1)(.59)+4(.16)+1.5(.25)=.425 bets So your bet is +EV if you don't get quartered. 1/5 of the time you hit the low.... You still are + 0.25 bets.

If you only get 3 callers you are neutral EV.

Unless I really hose my EV calc, it looks like a good bet, which surprises me.
Reply With Quote
  #6  
Old 04-28-2005, 01:53 PM
gergery gergery is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: May 2004
Location: SF Bay Area (eastbay)
Posts: 719
Default Re: What do you think of my play

Good point on if they'd fold the turn. If they do, then the raise is bad -- but they ARE fish after all [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

I will say that my natural inclination on the turn was to call not raise. But I do think the math works out such that if both will call then its a good raise.
Reply With Quote
  #7  
Old 04-28-2005, 01:55 PM
Beavis68 Beavis68 is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: May 2004
Location: AZ
Posts: 779
Default Re: What do you think of my play

I guess if you want to add in that raising the turn is going to make you call one more bet x% of the time which you will lose x% of the time you can, which makes the raise much more neutral.
Reply With Quote
  #8  
Old 04-28-2005, 02:16 PM
GooperMC GooperMC is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 298
Default Re: What do you think of my play

The only reason I raised was because there were 2 fish in the hand that I assumed would call even for a 3 bet. If there were 2 rocks sitting over there I would have flat called.

There is also a chance that SB will just call my raise either because he didn't have the str8 or because he is a passive player. If he flat calls the fish will definitely come along and I have position on everyone for the river.
Reply With Quote
  #9  
Old 04-28-2005, 02:50 PM
GooperMC GooperMC is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 298
Default Re: What do you think of my play

Here are my numbers

Call:
I am assuming that there will be 3BB put in on the river.
15BB total of which I put in 2.
Scoop: (.16)(15) = 2.4
1/2: (.25)(7.5) = 1.88
Lose: (.58)(-1) = -.58
Total EV: 3.7

Raise 0 Fishy callers:
Assuming that I would only call the 3 bet the pot would be 20BB of which I put in 5.
Scoop: (.16)(20) = 3.2
1/2: (.25)(10) = 2.5
Lose: (.58)(-4) = -2.3
Total EV: 3.4

Raise 1 Fishy caller:
Assuming that fishy caller would call a cap and a bet on the river the pot would be 23BB of which I put in 6.
Scoop: (.16)(23) = 3.68
1/2: (.25)(11.5) = 2.88
Lose: (.58)(-5) = -2.9
Total EV: 3.66

Raise 2 Fishy caller:
Assuming that both fishy caller would call a cap and 1 fishy caller would call river bet the pot would be 27BB of which I put in 6.
Scoop: (.16)(27) = 4.32
1/2: (.25)(13.5) = 3.38
Lose: (.58)(-5) = -2.9
Total EV: 4.8

If we say that 25% of the time I get 2 fishy callers 25% of the time I get 0 fishy callers and 50% of the time I get 1 fishy caller
Total EV = (.25)(3.4) + (.25)(4.8) + (.5)(3.66) = 3.88

Looks like Greg hit it right not the nose. The raise looks to be slightly +EV over a call (unless I messed up somewhere in my math).

The raise will also have a small –EV bump because it is more likely that I will make a crying call in a larger pot. However I think that is very minimal because a good crying call should be +EV. In other words if I win a crying call in the large pot I will win larger then in a small pot.
Reply With Quote
  #10  
Old 04-28-2005, 02:54 PM
GooperMC GooperMC is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 298
Default Re: What do you think of my play

The only reason I thought about a flop raise was the CO was BAD. If I could get HU with him I have position and I though there was a decent chance I was ahead of him for the high. He was that bad.

One of my leaks is I overvalue good but not great hands against very weak players. He had been giving money to everyone at the table and I was thinking this could be a good chance to exploit him. Maybe that face that I even considered a raise here was a case of this leak showing its ugly head.
Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 04:55 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions Inc.