I think this river call is bad. [Fixed. I think.]

[JaBlue]

You have to call here. It looks like it could be J10-AJ[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], a full house, or even a bluff with the missed diamond draw. The combination of possible bluff or J10-AJ diamond or no diamond is higher than 33%.

on second thought, the way the hand was played i would put the chances of a flopped set rivered fullhouse much lower than either of the other possibilities. It definitely looks most like AJ-J10 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. Easy call.


Hopefully not J9.

[mosch]

[ QUOTE ]


I do feel, however, that the call is not as easy as you think. The flop donk bet is the only real clue that would lead to AJ/KJ..

And some people will make that dumb of a bet with a monster, too. They're not good players, but they can still take my money doing that sh*t from time to time.


[/ QUOTE ]

Sometimes your opponent is going to have a boat/quads here, but he'd have to have you beat better than 2/3 of the time to make it a bad call. I just don't think that's realistic.

[jjacky]

[ QUOTE ]
You have an extremely liberal definition of the term 'scare card'.

I suggest you see a doctor to get some anti-anxiety medication.

[/ QUOTE ]

any of those cards weakens my hand considerably (i have the nuts on the turn but not on the river anymore). that doesn't mean that i wouldn't call the river if one of those cards come.

but don't you agree with my statement that the turn bet is ways too small?

[Macquarie]

[ QUOTE ]
Open-raise to $4, flat-call a pf raise, gay-bet an undercard flop, wake up when a J hits, then just call a raise, go nutty when another J hits. Looks like somebody playing AJ to me

[/ QUOTE ]

You seem to think that we are playing against the cut-off. We're not - we are against the SB. SB did not open-raise to 4, he smooth called a preflop min-raise and a reraise.
I agree that if we were against the CO this would be an easy call.
However we are against the SB. Do we really put him on a flat call out of position with AJ, then min-betting into two raisers with only overcards?

[mosch]

[ QUOTE ]

I agree that if we were against the CO this would be an easy call.
However we are against the SB. Do we really put him on a flat call out of position with AJ, then min-betting into two raisers with only overcards?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think it's just as viable as pocket nines. Or at least 33% as viable, which is all Kyo needs.

The gay bet is the thing that really makes me think a set isn't that likely. Most people who flop a set on a not paritcularly threatening board (only real danger is the flush draw) are going to attempt a trap. A miniature blocking bet isn't a trap so much as an attempt to see a cheap turn.

To me, this increases the odds of overcards/flush draw... something that is looking to buy a cheap card in a decent sized pot.