Hypothetical Question

[elindauer]

[ QUOTE ]
Your hand is face up!! Maybe they will choose to not give us action pre-flop but they could outplay us perfectly post-flop if they wanted to.

...

I will go with $0/hr.

[/ QUOTE ]

To outplay us, they have to make us fold the winner. We can thwart this strategy by never folding. It's very difficult to draw out on KK, and it happens rarely enough that it's unprofitable to call preflop with virtually everything even if you know (or perhaps, especially if you know) that your opponent would payoff all the way.

For example, a pocket pair. You're only going to flop a set 1 time in 8.5. Even if you can raise the turn and get paid off for 7SB postflop, that only gives you 10.5:2 (5:1) odds to draw for the set. You're 7.5:1 to flop a set and you still might lose sometimes when you do... so you have to fold. Calling is a losing play.

Ace-high? You'll flop an ace less than 1 time in 5, about 4:1 against. Again, you're getting only 5:1 to play preflop, so you can call, but you aren't exactly breaking the bank with your profits from this hand, especially since an ace-high flop is the only one the KK may fold. Even if you figure an ace high flop just results in KK check-calling (assuming you have position!) and gets you 5SB, then you're getting only 8.5:2 preflop and make almost nothing with this hand.

If you can only play AA profitably, you aren't going to have many opportunities to outplay your opponent, whether you know his cards or not.

good luck.
eric

[arcticfox]

I would turn this around and ask what hands you are prepared to call face up Kings with? then work out the probability that any of the opponents will call (so that you don't just pick up the blinds) and that when they do call what the probability is that they hit their hand on the flop to be worthwhile continuing calling/raising the kings bets.

There is no way the EV of having kings every hand is close to 0 even when face up.

[Diplomat]

[ QUOTE ]
It seems that if you demonstrate that you're always going to call down, you're going to win the blinds an awful lot.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree, this is a very good point.

-Diplomat

[UMTerp]

[ QUOTE ]
I would turn this around and ask what hands you are prepared to call face up Kings with?

[/ QUOTE ]

Let me think about this for a while.

[flub]

Zero because it would be a table of one.

-f

[elindauer]

[ QUOTE ]
Zero because it would be a table of one.

-f

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually, several people in this thread have claimed KK face up is $0 and might even be negative. If a few more agree we might be able to get this game going.

-eric

[elindauer]

What is the weakest hand you can play profitably face up under the given conditions?

good luck.
eric

[tpir90036]

I think your point re: not folding ever has some merit... but "outplaying" encompasses a lot more than just making us fold winners. It has come to mean "bluff someone out" on here I guess... but that is not exactly what I meant. Jason_t said what I was thinking in a better way, relating it to the FTOP.

[elindauer]

[ QUOTE ]
I think your point re: not folding ever has some merit... but "outplaying" encompasses a lot more than just making us fold winners. It has come to mean "bluff someone out" on here I guess... but that is not exactly what I meant. Jason_t said what I was thinking in a better way, relating it to the FTOP.

[/ QUOTE ]

The fact that your opponents will play perfectly does not mean that you will not make any money. FTOP is written the way it is on the assumption that you are going to get the same cards as your opponents. If you get the same cards yes, the person that plays closest to perfect wins. In this thuogh, the cards are not evenly distributed. You are being deal a group 1 hand every time!

You won't turn a profit above the true value of your cards, but KK is simply so much better than your opponent's random holdings that you will turn a huge profit. Of course, if you played your hand perfectly, you'd make even more, probably 50% more profit.

Anyways, I've done a bunch of math in this thread to how kings at about $1000 / hr. You'll have to give some non-qualitative arguments if you want your claim of break-even to be convincing.

good luck.
eric

[NLSoldier]

If this is the canterbury 30/60 game, Im pretty sure most of the hands would still be multiway capped preflop anyways. Im thinking youd make like $10,000 per hour [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

edit to say its probably closer to $20k/hr if Jimmy or Dennis is in the game.