Stud 8 - Day 2, Hand 2

[Aaron W.]

Is 6th street a value bet when he checks to me holding an exposed pair? Is it worth throwing in a raise on the river since I've got the lock on low?

7 Card Stud High-Low ($0.25/$0.50), Ante $0.05, Bring-In $0.10 (converter)

3rd Street - (1.60 SB)

Seat 1: xx xx T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___calls
Seat 2: xx xx 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___brings-in
Seat 3: xx xx K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___folds
Hero: 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___calls
Seat 5: xx xx 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___calls
Seat 6: xx xx T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___calls
Seat 7: xx xx J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___calls
Seat 8: xx xx Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___calls

4th Street - (4.40 SB)

Seat 1: xx xx T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 2: xx xx 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___checks
Hero: 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___checks
Seat 5: xx xx 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___checks
Seat 6: xx xx T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___checks
Seat 7: xx xx J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___checks
Seat 8: xx xx Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___checks

5th Street - (2.20 BB)

Seat 2: xx xx 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___folds
Hero: 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___calls
Seat 5: xx xx 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 6: xx xx T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 7: xx xx J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 8: xx xx Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___bets

6th Street - (4.20 BB)

Hero: 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___checks
Seat 8: xx xx Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___checks

River - (4.20 BB)

Hero: 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___calls
Seat 8: xx xx Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] xx___bets

Total pot: (6.20 BB)

Check sixth, raise seventh (you are freerolling for high).

[Backstabr]

Your call on fifth may be a too thin: two 4s and a 9 are dead, and the pot is small. Run some calculations on twodimes.net to figure out if calling is right.

Otherwise, just fine.

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
Your call on fifth may be a too thin: two 4s and a 9 are dead, and the pot is small. Run some calculations on twodimes.net to figure out if calling is right.

Otherwise, just fine.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think your analysis fails to consider that I've got lots of two pair scooping chances if he has only a pair of queens. Here are the numbers based on what he actually had:

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1341907
pokenum -mc 500000 -7s8 8d 6h 7c 6s 5h - ts 2d qd ah qc / 2h 8h 6d 9s 5c 4c th 2s 3h jh 4s 5s
7-card Stud Hi/Low 8-or-better: 500000 sampled outcomes
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
6s 7c 8d 6h 5h 244858 244858 255142 0 258805 0 0 0.633
Ts Qc Qd 2d Ah 112288 255142 244858 0 0 0 0 0.367

If I give him two pair, I'm basically even money:

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1341920
pokenum -mc 500000 -7s8 8d 6h 7c 6s 5h - 2c 2d qd ah qc / 2h 8h 6d 9s 5c 4c th 2s 3h jh 4s 5s
7-card Stud Hi/Low 8-or-better: 500000 sampled outcomes
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
6s 7c 8d 6h 5h 168472 168472 331528 0 234720 0 0 0.489
Qc 2c Qd 2d Ah 179328 331528 168472 0 0 0 0 0.511

[benwood]

3rd:I like the completion here. Get rid of those middle cards behind you, & you may scoop this puppy. 4th: What? No bet? what happened to your aggression? 6th:I would bet it . He's more likely to be checking 1 pr than a better hand. It must be right to pop him on the river with the lock. Nothing bad can happen.

[goofball]

Not raising the river is a large error. I think the bet on 6th is fine on equity alone. Unbeatable low draw, OESD, a hand that could easily be best anyway, you ahve too many things going for you not to bet.