Llabb's Locks (NBA)

[llabb]

Alright, so I don't believe in locks, but it's a nice title anyway. I did fairly well in the NBA last year, particularly in the playoffs, but I didn't keep very good records. If I leave it simply to me and my buddy Excel again, I'll probably screw up this year's data too. So for added discipline and motivation, I'm going to keep track of my picks here, for all to enjoy or laugh at.

I rate my picks as 1 unit, 2 unit, or 3 unit wagers, since that's how I bet them. Average plays are 2 units, but I start the season at just 1 unit until I have a better feel for how teams have changed or see crazy lines. Juice will be taken out of unit wins/losses.

Wish me luck! Have a great NBA season all.

[llabb]

To kick off the season, I've taken the following all at 1 unit, from -107 to -110.

Milwaukee +6
Denver 1st half +4
Dallas -1
Sac/Dal Under 215
SA/Den Under 189

[ImNew]

gl... i'll post my bets too
Nov-1 NBA MILWAUKEE +7 -110 @5dimes ($5.5)
Nov-1 NBA ORLANDO +6 -110 @5dimes ($5.5)
Nov-1 NBA MEMPHIS +5 -110 @5dimes ($5.5)
Nov-1 NBA New Orleans +7.5 -107 @canbet ($5.35)
Nov-1 NBA Dallas Mavericks +2.5 -113 @matchbook ($5)
Nov-1 NBA Dallas Mavericks +2.5 +100 @matchbook ($5)
Nov-3 NBA Washington Wizards -1.5 -107 @canbet ($5)

[llabb]

YTD 3-2, +0.8 units

Nice night for most people last night, it seems. Thought I had 4-1, until Dallas-Phoenix went into not only overtime but also double OT. Anyway, full slate tonight. All picks 1 unit, unless otherwise noted.

Was -2
Ind -6.5
Ind/Orl U 189
Bos -3.5 2u
Mem -4.5
Dal -3 2u
Den -6.5
Tsr NJ -3.5 & Det -3 2u
Tsr Min -6 & Chi -4

[dankhank]

dal -3 1/2 unit
ytd 2-1 +.5

[llabb]

Added Dal/Uta U 190.5

[llabb]

Added Den/LAL 2nd half U 103.5

[llabb]

Yesterday 7-4 +1.6u
YTD 10-6 +2.4u

A decent start, but I'm a little ticked at myself for jumping the gun on some marginal games. I was a little overly excited, after waiting for the NBA so long. Sticking to the solid games only would have yielded 6-2, +3.8u last night, a whole 2.2 units more. While still playing 8 games, it's not like I wasn't getting any action already, lol.

And like others have mentioned, getting screwed by OT hurts even more than a normal loss, sucks to get rivered. I don't know the stats on this, but I gotta guess that 5 OT games (including 1 double OT) by the 2nd day of the season is unusual. Anyone know what % of games go into OT?

On to Thurs night, only 2 games, so they're easy to focus on, but the lines might be sharper. I'm already liking the Mia/Ind Under 186.5, will analyze more and post later.

[llabb]

I don't like televised games, particularly on days with really light schedules, but I like tonight's games so here we go.

Ind/Mia U 186.5 2u
Ind +5.5
Pho/LAL U 204
Pho +4

[Runner Runner]

[ QUOTE ]
Ind/Mia U 186.5 2u, Pho +4

[/ QUOTE ]

Nice ones, I missed the boat. The ship has left port, and so has the value. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]