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  #1  
Old 12-29-2005, 08:38 AM
graarrg graarrg is offline
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Default Accuracy of small samples (for opponents)

This may have been addressed at some point before, but I was curious about how well one could assess an opponent based on his stats and a small sample (200+ hands). I know that a small sample size will not yield anything accurate, leading to my next question...

because small variations in VPIP, for example, mean nothing in small samples, how large can I set the ranges for marking players? for a sample size of 400 hands, would 10% blocks work out? maybe 20%? Same goes for PFR, and hell, all the other GT++ overlay stats.

so far, the stats have provided me with a little extra evidence to probabilistically infer certain things. I just don't want to find out that the stat variations are VERY large after I lose 50BB bluffing and pumping on wrong reads.
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Old 12-29-2005, 08:56 AM
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Default Re: Accuracy of small samples (for opponents)

I don't think the variations are very large. Even after 30 hands or something like that it usually is pretty obvious if your opponent is loose/tight, passive/agressive. Ofcourse sometimes you hit an tight player catching good cards or an loose player catching nothing, but a 400 hands sample size should be large enough.
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  #3  
Old 12-29-2005, 09:06 AM
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Default Re: Accuracy of small samples (for opponents)

Even though short term stats may not give you the best overall read on a player, it will tell you how he/she is playing in the current session (and that is 1/2 the battle!). Stats combined with your personal observations of how they play should give you a pretty good read.

Example, you only have 30 hand on someone who has a VPIP of 50% and when you see his showdowns and other types of play and he calls down all the way vs aggro. with J8o, 98s, etc. I feel confident categoring him as a loose/passive.

I pretty much use bison's rules for rating players with some customization in my HUD. This is what I use for full-ring VPIP in my HUD:

ORANGE: 0 - 14.99 - Too Tight, may be rockish.
RED: 15-19.99 - Possible Tight/Good (depending on PFR)
YELLOW: 20-29.99 Loose
GREEN: 30-100 Here fishy, fishy!
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  #4  
Old 12-29-2005, 11:24 AM
AussieBattler AussieBattler is offline
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Default Re: Accuracy of small samples (for opponents)

I concur with the previous posters.

Bad players will reveal themselves after relatively few hands.

It is waaay more likely that those small sample sizes for a suspected fishy actually mean a fish than a TAG who is getting a good run of cards. This is especially true at the nanos and micros.

oh and one Showed down hand for a fish can be golden...when he/she cold calls with J8 you note that and proceed to take his money. when he calls down with 3rd pair and makes trips on the river (at someone else's expense) thats gold too.

oh and Eeegah will tell tou that when a player sits with 10BB you can almost certainly assume he is bad. Thats quite possibly the best read of all cos it doesnt require any hands at all.....just watch out for 2+2ers on 15BB challenges. theyll be your exception [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]
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  #5  
Old 12-29-2005, 11:36 AM
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Default Re: Accuracy of small samples (for opponents)

[ QUOTE ]
oh and Eeegah will tell tou that when a player sits with 10BB you can almost certainly assume he is bad. Thats quite possibly the best read of all cos it doesnt require any hands at all

[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe I'm an exception, but my last 1500BBs were won by sitting at tables with 10BBs. For me the loss of only pumping a monster for 6BBs rather than 7BBs, for example, is *way* out-weighed by being forced to find better tables rather than grinding it out at bad ones. At great tables, 10BBs is more than enough. Occasionally you'll find a great table & lose 5+ BBs on a bad beat right off the bat, but that's why you can rebuy if you're sure you want to stay there.
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  #6  
Old 12-29-2005, 03:57 PM
k000k k000k is offline
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Default Re: Accuracy of small samples (for opponents)

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
oh and Eeegah will tell tou that when a player sits with 10BB you can almost certainly assume he is bad....

[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe I'm an exception, ...

[/ QUOTE ]

99x out of 100, a table full of tiny stacks is a table full of suckers. You should always have at least 12 bets on the table at all times.. Enough to cap every street if you have to. Sit with 10bb, lose a hand, and get in a boat over boat war with someone, you'll be all-in by the turn. You're never gonna LOSE anything by having 30 or 50 bb on the table.

Although I do find it humorous when someone has like 500+ bets on the table.. I wanna tell em 'You must really suck if you plan on needing all that!'
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  #7  
Old 12-29-2005, 05:43 PM
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Default Re: Accuracy of small samples (for opponents)

[ QUOTE ]
Although I do find it humorous when someone has like 500+ bets on the table.. I wanna tell em 'You must really suck if you plan on needing all that!'


[/ QUOTE ]

Is anyone really intimidated by a ginormous stake at a limit table? I try not to pay attention to it unless I've been there long enough for PA to tell me if the guy is winning or not.
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