Fossilman: Stealing on the bubble

benfranklin · #1 06-01-2005, 02:39 PM

ESPN2 showed the WSOP 2004 final table last night, with commentary by Greg Raymer. I found his comments on getting to the final table very interesting, and dead on regarding SnG bubble play.

The field was down to 10 players (all at one table), and they would play that night until one more was eliminated, reaching the "real" final table of nine. This was "THE" bubble of the WSOP.

Raymer started the table of 10 with about 5 million chips, and finished it with 8 million when they got down to the final 9. In his commentary, he said that when they got down to 10, he knew that he had a huge edge for stealing here, and that he intended to do just that. So he just sat there and consciously stole 3 million chips. He knew that virtually everyone else had only one thing on their minds: survival.

The principle is simple; the magnitude of stealing 3 million is breath-taking.

durron597 · #2 06-01-2005, 02:52 PM

It's almost not surprising that Marcel Luske was the one who Bubbled. He was one of the few that was willing to gamble all his chips with 9 left.

And of course Matt Dean had a big stack because he decided to make that DONK coinflip call against John Murphy with 13 left for nearly all his chips.

LeVoodoo · #3 06-01-2005, 02:54 PM

It's the bubble TV/Fame wise, but is it really the bubble?
What's the difference in pay between 10th and 9th?

A-Baum · #4 06-01-2005, 02:55 PM

I have a hard time believing that players like Dan Harrington and Al Krux only had survival on their minds. I think that's more of a SNG type mentality. Every one of these guys were in it to win it. Raymer did a great job of stealing 3mil in chips, but I don't think you can chalk it up to playing scared from a couple of the tournament greats.

45suited · #5 06-01-2005, 02:58 PM

[ QUOTE ]
And of course Matt Dean had a big stack because he decided to make that DONK coinflip call against John Murphy with 13 left for nearly all his chips.

[/ QUOTE ]

Dean played poorly once at the final table, but I think it's a little unfair to call his hand with Murphy a DONK move. Give the guy credit for having a set and making a tough call. And keep in mind, that if he had a strong read that Murphy had AK, it's not exactly a coinflip: 57-43

benfranklin · #6 06-01-2005, 03:09 PM

[ QUOTE ]
It's the bubble TV/Fame wise, but is it really the bubble?
What's the difference in pay between 10th and 9th?

[/ QUOTE ]

The final table bubble is purely psychological (i.e., ego). Finishing in 9th place paid about $470K, 10th about $370K.

durron597 · #7 06-01-2005, 03:20 PM

They are second and third in chips. Both can easily make the final table since there are a bunch of small stacks left.

dhende3 · #8 06-01-2005, 03:53 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
And of course Matt Dean had a big stack because he decided to make that DONK coinflip call against John Murphy with 13 left for nearly all his chips.

[/ QUOTE ]

Dean played poorly once at the final table, but I think it's a little unfair to call his hand with Murphy a DONK move. Give the guy credit for having a set and making a tough call. And keep in mind, that if he had a strong read that Murphy had AK, it's not exactly a coinflip: 57-43

[/ QUOTE ]

I really hate Dean's call there versus Murphy personally. I think he made this for two reasons.

1) He was obviously light years behind the other players when it came to post-flop play and knew he needed to take a HUGE coin-flip to increase his payout substantially. I am impressed by his balls, however, not an easy call to make for a teacher making 40k a year.

2) I liken this call to a situation in an SnG where there are 4 players left: 2 at T3000 and 2 at T1000. You push UTG with say KQ and the other "sheriff" bigstack somehow feels the urge to call an almost certain coinflip with Ax although this play is -$EV in the long run. For some reason Dean used this backward logic.

AA suited · #9 06-01-2005, 04:01 PM

damn it.. missed it again

anyone know when will it be on dvd?

applejuicekid · #10 06-01-2005, 04:47 PM

[ QUOTE ]
1) He was obviously light years behind the other players when it came to post-flop play

[/ QUOTE ]

How do you know this?

[ QUOTE ]
2) I liken this call to a situation in an SnG where there are 4 players left: 2 at T3000 and 2 at T1000. You push UTG with say KQ and the other "sheriff" bigstack somehow feels the urge to call an almost certain coinflip with Ax although this play is -$EV in the long run.

[/ QUOTE ]

No, these two situations are completely different.