Suffering a 140BB downswing. Need help

WayneX2 · #1 05-18-2005, 07:58 AM

Over the last 750 hands I have lost 140BB at 0.5/1. I just can't win a hand to save my life at the moment. My W$SD is 35. All my big hands are losing. I haven't made a set from a pocket pair from 37. I have lost to runner runner one card straights/flushes/trips/full houses more times than I can count.

I know it is a small sample size but I just can't see why I am losing at such a rate. Previous to this I was 5BB/100 over 5500. Again it is a small sample size, but is it possible this is just variance? It is only over the last 3 days so I haven't changed the way I play at all.

Here are a few hands from a session I had this morning where I dropped 25BB in 42 hands.

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG calls, 1 fold, UTG+2 calls, 3 folds, CO calls, Hero raises, 2 folds, UTG calls, UTG+2 calls, CO calls.

Flop: (9.50 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
UTG bets, UTG+2 folds, CO calls, Hero raises, UTG calls, CO calls.

Turn: (7.75 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG checks, CO bets, Hero raises, UTG folds, CO 3-bets, Hero calls.

River: (13.75 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
CO bets, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 15.75 BB

Results in white below: 
CO has 2h 8h (two pair, eights and twos).
Hero has Jd Ah (one pair, jacks).
Outcome: CO wins 15.75 BB. 

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG calls, Hero raises, 4 folds, CO calls, 3 folds, UTG calls.

Flop: (7.50 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets, CO calls, UTG calls.

Turn: (5.25 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets, CO calls, UTG calls.

River: (8.25 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets, CO raises, UTG folds, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 12.25 BB

Results in white below: 
Hero has Qs Qd (two pair, queens and sevens).
CO has Ad 7c (three of a kind, sevens).
Outcome: CO wins 12.25 BB. 

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. CO posts a blind of $0.5.
2 folds, MP1 calls, 2 folds, CO (poster) checks, Button calls, Hero completes, BB checks.

Flop: (5 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (5 players)
Hero bets, BB raises, MP1 folds, CO folds, Button folds, Hero 3-bets, BB calls.

Turn: (5.50 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, BB calls.

River: (7.50 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, BB checks.

Final Pot: 7.50 BB

Results in white below: 
BB has Qd 8d (two pair, queens and eights).
Hero has Qc Ks (one pair, queens).
Outcome: BB wins 7.50 BB. 

In the first 2 hands the 2 other players were 98/0 and 75/0 respectively. Both had been showing down crap. These hands are typical of the beats I have been on the end of.

Just looking for some advice really cos I am nearing the stage where I am thinking why bother raising AK, KQs etc because I know it is only going to miss. If anyone wants more stats let me know.

adsman · #2 05-18-2005, 08:08 AM

You've just suffered a few suckouts and had some hands cracked. Take a week off and come back refreshed. It happens to everyone. I have a good friend who lost $5500 at 15/30 last week in two sittings, and he's a damn fine player.

Incedently, Hand 3 - bet the river.

parappa · #3 05-18-2005, 08:12 AM

The turn raise in Hand 1 is debateable, depending on reads, but there probably isn't any read that would make it horrible. Other 2 hands seem fine/standard.

I've played way too much .5/1 (like 30k hands), and I've suffered 2 100+ BB downswings in that time. It turned out that there wasn't that much wrong with my game, but this time is _extremely valuable_ for looking at your game. Go through all the hands that you can find. Use this time, because you'll soon be winning again and (if you're like me) you'll be too complacent/happy with your WR to motivate yourself. Nothing motivates you to find leaks like a downswing.

Oh, and hang in there, it's happened to all of us, etc. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

FlopMe · #4 05-18-2005, 08:12 AM

This is more than likely just variance. 140 BB (and larger) downswings happen. Try to keep your head and play your best game. When it turns around you're going to be a beast again. During downswings I like to tell myself that when it's over "these donks are gonna pay."

cmwck · #5 05-18-2005, 08:13 AM

I would bet and fold to a raise in the last hand. Bad players will call with worse hands.

The rest of the hands look fine. If you were expecting to win everytime you play well, or that if you play well you won't loose a lot of money, then you need a better understanding of fundamental poker concepts. Namely, that poker is a gambling game where you try to maximize your Expected Value.

adsman · #6 05-18-2005, 08:17 AM

Also, one other thing.
The great thing about poker is that the poor players sometimes win. This is great for two reasons;
1. It gives them hope and keeps them in the game as they still have some bankroll,
2. They believe that the won because they are good players so they keep playing the same.

So sometimes they're going to win. It's called variance but in the end even this works in your favour.

lionhorse · #7 05-18-2005, 08:21 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Also, one other thing.
The great thing about poker is that the poor players sometimes win. This is great for two reasons;
1. It gives them hope and keeps them in the game as they still have some bankroll,
2. They believe that the won because they are good players so they keep playing the same.

So sometimes they're going to win. It's called variance but in the end even this works in your favour.

[/ QUOTE ]

Absolutely. If the donks never won, they wouldn't be around for long, and it would be harder for people like us to make money. Go for a walk after a losing session and after half an hour you'll feel (at least marginally) better.

topspin · #8 05-18-2005, 09:14 AM

Just call the turn bet in hand 1; 78 is a very likely possibility. Bet the river and fold to a raise in hand 3.

k000k · #9 05-18-2005, 09:22 AM

[ QUOTE ]
If the donks never won, they wouldn't be around for long, and it would be harder for people like us to make money.

[/ QUOTE ]

Exactly, donks THINK they're winners when they suckout. Then when they eventually lose it all, they blame it on bad luck, not bad playing. It's the greatest illusion ever, and it totally works to our advantage.

krishanleong · #10 05-18-2005, 09:26 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I just can't see why I am losing at such a rate.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's variance. Let me know when you hit 410 BB.

Krishan

Thread Tools
Show Printable Version Email this Page
Display Modes
Linear Mode Switch to Hybrid Mode Switch to Threaded Mode