Some Offsuit hand Winrates

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do you realize this?

if your winrate for a certain hand from the bb is -.45, then you are making money with it.

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Of course I realize that. For you to ask me that question tells me that you did not understand my post. All I can suggest is that you re-read it.

-v

[BoxTree]

K9o: 17 times, .25 bb/hand
Q9o: 23 times, .15 bb/hand
J9o: 43 times, -.14 bb/hand
T9o: 23 times, .08 bb/hand

[chris_a]

K9o: 198 times, -0.02 bb/hand
Q9o: 216 times, -0.06 bb/hand
J9o: 220 times, -0.03 bb/hand
T9o: 201 times, 0.00 bb/hand

So you are using these just as a figure of merit against other neighboring hands right?

[Victor]

you need to take into account vpip as well.

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So you are using these just as a figure of merit against other neighboring hands right?

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No, he isn't.

I spoke to him about his intentions for the hands listed in this thread. Vkh is looking to combine all samples that are contributed into one giant sample size (sort of like pokerroom.com has). The biggest and most useful difference is that this sample will be made up of stats from only winning players as opposed to all players.

These four hands are just a start. If all goes well with these, he intends to continue developing a daily referrence that all of us can use.

[Victor]

ok heres my totals:
hand..times..vpip..winrate
k9....1345...34....(.06)
q9....1362...22....(.07)
j9....1366...15....(.06)
109...1374...28....(.03)

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you need to take into account vpip as well.

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That will all come out as a wash. With hundreds of thousands of samples from winning players, everything that varies (VPIP, postflop play, etc.) will average out.

[Monty Cantsin]

K9: 833, +.09
Q9: 812, -.05
J9: 762, -.04
T9: 781, -.04

Obviously, the last 3 just haven't converged yet.

/mc

[Spicymoose]

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then why the [censored] are you including the blind occurences?

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I'll illustrate why with an example.

Let's say I want to know what my winrate could bewith K9o in the cutoff if I opened with it. Let's say that I've been dealt it 300 times in the cutoff and I've folded it 300 times. I'm making 0.00 bb/hand with K9o in the cutoff. What does that tell me about whether it's playable in the cutoff or not?

Absolutely nothing.

As I stated in another post in this thread, the strength of a hand outside the blinds is correlated with its strength in the blinds. A hand that is playable UTG for instance, usually breaks even or better in the blinds, whereas a hand that you muck first in on the button usually does pretty close to it's "loss floor" (roughly (-0.12)bb/hand in the big blind in 6 max) in the blinds. Since many people don't play the four hands I listed in the cutoff, and some don't even play them on the button (I have 130k hands of 5-10 as a significant winner without ever playing any one of those four hands on the button), I believe I will get a BETTER idea of their strength OUTSIDE the blinds by incorporating data INSIDE the blinds then by not incorporating this data.

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I still don't see how you can possibly get any meaning out of these numbers. Blind play is way different from non blind play, and some people may only be playing T9 in the blind, and never out of the blinds. This will skew results one way or the other, and will not give you a "overall" picture. I really think you need to have seperate winrates for in blind, and out of blind play with the different hands.

Please, just give me an example of potential long run results, and tell me what those results would mean. For example, lets say K9o, Q9o, J9o, T9 lose -.04, -.07, -.08, -.09 respectively. What meaning do you draw out of that?

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Please, just give me an example of potential long run results, and tell me what those results would mean. For example, lets say K9o, Q9o, J9o, T9 lose -.04, -.07, -.08, -.09 respectively. What meaning do you draw out of that?

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I think I can answer that.

If we folded every one of those hands all of the time, our loss rate would be around -0.12 bb/hand. This is derived by taking the amount of both blinds (-0.75 bb) and dividing it by average players at the table (5.3), which is -0.1415 bb/hand. That number needs to be adjusted slightly in our favor in order to compensate for the times we get a walk in the big blind.

By playing these hands in profitable spots (which according to HUSH would be button, blinds and sometimes the CO), we are able, not so much get those hands in the green, but to reduce our losses.

By taking a collection of overall winrates for these hands from only winning players (breakeven to 3bb/100 winners), we can determine a relatively accurate hand value for each one. That information is extremely useful in determining where you or I should be with all hands in terms of winrate, and will also provide a more accurate guide for opening certain hands in certain situations.

Just entertain vkh for 2 minutes of your time and provide your personal stats. He's willing to invest much more of his time for our benefit.